BANG!

[ryan nelson]

The last quote of my e-mail missed a key word which makes the entire
point, maybe dostoevsky's underground man was right and 2+2 should NOT
equal 4 sometimes.

My bad.

rmn 

-----Original Message-----
From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
Behalf Of ryan nelson
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2007 9:35 PM
To: 'The Boston Celtics Mailing List'
Subject: RE: BANG!

Ok, so the NBA draft is Russian roulette and mostly based on luck, and
yet Danny makes great picks.  Hmmm, a little contradictory?  It can't be
both.  

If it's truly a crapshoot, then GM's can't actually influence the draft
and deserve neither credit nor scorn for their picks, right?  Because,
hey, it's Russian roulette.  So then picking Gomes and West (Danny
defenders' point of light) was just luck, because hey, you never know.  

So then danny does not deserve this title of great drafter and therefore
he has done nothing good as GMs since his trades are pretty marginal,
his signings have been awful, and his coaching hires blows.  So he has
failed in the things he can control and has done well (by many on this
list's standards) in the things he can't control since the draft is all
luck.

You can't have it both ways, sorry.  You can't give danny credit for
good draft picks and then claim the draft is all luck (and by the way,
NBA GMs have all day everyday to scout players so it is a bit more than
luck).

But then again, why would logic make sense in a world where Kendrick
perkins is preferred right now to Josh Howard.  Hey, maybe dostoevsky's
underground man was right and 2+2 should equal 4 sometimes.

rmn




-----Original Message-----
From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
Behalf Of Ryan, Patrick S Maj RES USAFR 439 MSG
Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2007 3:21 PM
To: celtics at igtc.com
Subject: BANG!

Because as many have already said - it's entirely 100% hindsight!  At
the
moment in time when the pick was made no one could have definitively
said
"Josh Howard is going to be an All-Star and Perkins is going to struggle
to
average 5ppg and 5rpg". Do you honestly think that if that WERE the case
Ainge would NOT have picked Howard because that seems to be the position
folks are taking - that Ainge is SO arrogant that even KNOWING one
player
would be an all-star and another wouldn't that he would take Perkins
anyway.
 
And Gene's position argument has merit too - albeit with a little tweak
from
my perspective. End of round picks are usually (not always, but usually)
not
for need, but are "chances". Especially these days GMs more and more
take
the "home run" high-upside chance from about pick 20 or so; THEN if they
need a "know what you're gonna get/little upside" player they select a
four
year college guy in the 2nd round (because you don't have to guarantee
money). 
 
This was even MORE prevalent before the 20 year old rule went into
effect a
couple years ago as high schoolers many times fit into the "high
risk/potentially high reward" category. So, if you know you're playing
"high
risk/potentially high reward" anyway - wouldn't you take the risk on the
center more often? I bet 32 GMs would because centers are SO hard to
come
by. You can almost be guaranteed to get no less then a solid guy like a
Danny Granger (Heck, how about our own high risk swingman - how many of
you
arguing the Perk pick are likewise asking why we didn't take "X" big man
instead of Gerald Green!?!?) or the like even in the high teens every
single
year so why roll the dice on something you know you can get every year
in
the draft versus something you can't (PG and C).
  
The NBA Draft is Russian Roulette. Spin the chamber and pull the
trigger.
Sure, maybe some scouting allows you to have eight chambers instead of
six,
but you're still praying at the moment you actually pull the trigger.
People
that profess they "knew" which player was the home run are the ones with
the
stupid __it eating grin on their face just as the bullet goes through
their
brain.
 
---------------------------------------------------------
I just dont see how that really translates to more worth to any team
than
Josh Howard.

 

 

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