Danny's Steals

[mark at 10thumbs.org]

Like i said previoulsy ryan, we differ on how good/bad ainge has been but
i appreciate your well-reasoned arguments (and must say they're a bit
swaying). FWIW I did say that the "you" in you have to give ainge credit
for Jefferson was the generic "you".

that said, some points of departure:

1. I disagree that the ONE thing you can point to with Ainge has been his
drafting (which i think is better than a mixed bag). As i mentioned
previously, other good moves by Ainge, in no specific order:

- resigning Pierce (even if we end up moving him eventually, we very well
could have lost him for nothing and he sounded closer to leaving than
staying)
- signing Mike James (not a bold move, but an underated one)
- the Payton trade
- the CLE Ricky Davis trade
- the CLE Jiri Welsch trade
- resigning Blount & latter trading him (now the former looks like a bad
move, but I (as much as i now hate Blount) thought teh MLE was a good
deal; that Ainge recognized and corrected teh mistake was also a good
move).
- NOT reaching on MLE's (other than Blount, but remember we had no other
Center option at the time) like Q. Richardson, Abdur Rahim (whose skills
have eroded quickly) or Donyell Marshall.

To be sure Ainge has had some BAD moves -- which you've detailed -- but
let's move away from the idea that the only thing Ainge has done is draft.

2. I think we disagree on "what" West, Rondo, Allen and Gomes are. 
There's a big difference between 4-7th men (2 developing starters (Allen
and Rondo) and first 2 bench guys (West and Gomes)) and 8-10th guys... a
subtle difffernce but an important one.

this is how *i* slot those 4 guys:

Allen -- Never an all-star but a legit starter in the NBA (4th or 5th guy)
Rondo -- Close to a legit starter in the NBA (will be legit next season
IMO) (5th guy -- could move up in the coming years; And i was surprised i
thought Marcus Williams was the better pick and that Rondo would be a
bust)

West -- Legit 6th/7th man, spot starter.
Gomes -- Legit 6th/7th man, spot starter.

For Gomes + West the test is if you swapped them for the current 6th/7th
would he be (a) be playing and (b) significantly hurt  San Antonio,
Phoenix or Utah who have shortened their rotations for playoffs -- IMO yes
on (a) and no on (b)


I agree with your thoughts on Bold moves -- but there are very few GMs
that make them or make GOOD bold moves (riley, PHO gm,), I think its both
harder and more rare to to do than your making it sound.  Ainge hasn't
made bold moves, but IMO has made it more possible to make a bold move
than with the roster he inherited. And hasn't made many flexibilty-killing
moves that some GMs equate to progress/boldness.

That may sound like more "give him time" or pinning hopes to collecting
assets but building a team is a process.

IMO the key mistake -- we can and easily will overcome the Roy/Telfair
mistake -- is Doc (and to a lesser extent reupping Obie).  I admit this
makes me fearful.

(the other) mark


-------------------
I love this list, really i do.

First of all, I gave danny an A for drafting Jefferson in my analysis last
week, so i am not out to just knock ainge.

My points are (and i used delonte to illustrate this):

1.  The one thing people point to in support of Danny Ainge is his
drafting, and it has been a mixed bag.

2.  The great steals Danny has made in the draft are bottom of the
rotation guys (as most of you admitted today in saying gomes and delonte
would be good 8-9th men).  So while it's great danny picked up useful NBA
players, it's not like he made great steals as 9th and 10th guys are a
dime a dozen (like i said with matt barnes, etc.).

3.  People give danny so much credit for finding these steals, but don't
want to take away credit for missing steals (josh howard) awful picks
(banks) or trading away a pick (Roy).

4.  So if our GM's best quality is his ability to find bottom of the
rotation players in the lower half of the first round and in the second
round of the draft (which is his job), is that really who we want running
the team?  Is that one ability enough to say this is the person who has
the vision (rather than the 2-3 different visions he has had in 4 years)
to build the celtics into a contender?  Seriously, he has done one thing
decently and that one thing could easily have been done by signing the
best NBDL players.

We need a GM who can make bold moves that work.  We are in year 4 without
one of those happening.

And I like Delonte, in fact i like all of the celtic players.  This is a
very likeable team, they are just not very good NBA players.  Delonte
doesn't suck, but drafting him at the end of round one does not make ainge
a savior or draft savant.

I would feel much better about our prospects if we had a different
decision maker.

rmn





>From: mark at 10thumbs.org
>Date: 2007/05/16 Wed AM 10:05:29 CDT
>To: celtics at igtc.com
>Subject: Danny's Steals

>Dude - can we all calm down a little here?  I have not heard anyone say
>we're in the Auerbach era.  No one has written that Ainge is a god. etc.
>
>We're -- as far as I can tell -- debating whether or not Ainge has done
>enough to warrant keeping him as GM (as if we had any say).  I wish (and
>will pledge to try myself) that people would stop twisitng what others who
>disagree say.
>
>/rant...
>
>I don't think Gene was saying Perk is better than Josh HOward... but IMO
>it's not as big a draft gaffe as Ryan initially made it out to be.
>
>The year after they got Howard, Dallas passed on Kevin Martin, Varejao,
>Tony Allen, Delonte West, Chris Duhon, David Harrison, even Justin Reed
>for the immortal Pavel Podkolzine. That's a miss.
>
>The closest Ainge has come to that kind of miss is Banks.  Say what you
>want about Perkins but when all is said and done he'll have a 15-year NBA
>career with 20 mpg with 8-10 Reb/gm, 1-2 blks, 2-3 assts (and he's still
>learning) and yes the 5 ppg Ryan keeps mentioning :)  Podkolzine is all
>but done. [BTW hasn't Ainge admitted that having been on the job a month
>or so he didn't really scout that draft like he should have? He admits
>Banks was the wrong pick.]
>
>And if anyone criticizes Ainge for drafting Perkins, they have to
>compliment him for taking Jefferson at #15 when others we passing on him
>(Kris Humphris, TElfair, Luke Jackson, Aruajo, Robert Swift anyone?). You
>(the generic "you") can't have it both ways.
>
>When drafting I think you're doing good if you get:
>Stars with picks #1-10
>starters with #10-20
>spot starters or solid bench guys with picks #20-40
>end of the bench guys with #40-60
>
>Ainge has done that *consistently* -- and then some. Every one of his
>picks -  save the aforementioned Banks - has fallen in those categories.
>And many are in the next category above (Jefferson, West, Allen, Gomes,
>Reed, poss. Green and Rondo).
>
>I don't think Ainge has been w/o reproach, but he has consistently hit on
>his draft picks WHERE HE WAS DRAFTING.  Look at teams like WAS and NJ and
>see how much better they would be -- both look to have peaked -- if they
>were drafting guys like Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes or Kendrick Perkins instead
>of Plannanic, Kryhapa, or Andre Blatche.
>
>(the other) mark
>-------------------
>Sean G. wrote:
>-------------------
>Are you serious?   Good Lord, have you ever watched both of them play?  I
>dont see how a team can suck for so long and still have people thinking its
>the era of Auerbach.
>
>On 5/16/07, gene kirkpatrick <gk_tyler at yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>> Right.  I would take a shot-blocking center who can patrol the lane over a
>> very good wing.  Twelve years of Perk, who can neutralize the likes of
>> Dwight Howard et al, over twelve years of Howard.  That's my pick.  I'd
>also
>> take Rondo over Howard; centers and points are that much more important.
> Go
>> out and rebuild a team based on Josh Howard.  We all value his talent, but
>> he's much more easily cloned.  Gene
>>
>> HRBlaine at aol.com wrote:
>> In a message dated 5/16/2007 7:21:58 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time, Ryan
>> writes:
>>
>> >Honestly though, you're kidding about taking perk over josh howard,
>> right?
>>
>>
>> Unfortunately, he's not.
>>
>> Harry
>> green grow the glasses o