our "steals"

[mark at 10thumbs.org]

FWIW -- one way to judge a pick (though not really the way i like to) is
to look back a few years later and see if done again who you'd draft in
the same position.  At worst you want to be able to say "player x again...
he was the right pcik when avail", at best "player x would be LONG GONE".

2004 -- Jefferson -- I think the only guy you could argue taking over Big
Al was Josh Smith, and that would be a stretch IMO.  There are only a few
guys I'd consider taking over Jefferson in the whole draft (Okafor, Deng,
Howard, maybe Devin Harris).

(with our otehr picks West/Allen you could argue Kevin Martin, Anderson
Varejao and Chris Duhon are equal/better and only Trevor Ariza was a
better pick than our 2nd rounder, Justin Reed).

2005 -- Green -- a lot less cut and dry (though there's only been 2
seasons) but today I'd have taken Jarrett Jack or David Lee (though even
as a Florida fan i ddint' think he'd make a good pro). Other guys like
Luther Head and Francisco Garcia are playing roles on good teams, but I
think Gerald is approaching their level.

2006 -- Rondo -- Marcus Williams and Paul Millsap both look better out of
the gate, but they also both play on MUCH better teams.

(the other) mark





-----------------
What would have been the alternative?

  Those high school kids got picked because that was where the league was
headed.  Yeah, they do have a longer learning curve than guys that spent
4 years in college.  But how many 4 year college guys do you see
nowadays?

  Instead, I wish that the team were making more effort to look globally. 
Players from overseas have been having a marked impact on the league
because those players are far more fundamentally sound then a lot of U.
S. players.  But there is a cost to getting the decent overseas players
because you usually have to compensate their club team. Given the cost
cutting measures instilled by our ownership I am hardly surprised that
we don't have any!

Sean Giovanello <giovanello at gmail.com> wrote:
  Was Al really a steal or just a gamble? The same with Gerald. The problem
with high school guys is that they have the talent but o o o o o o so much
to learn about how to play in the NBA and to build their fundamentals. It
just takes them long years to be ready to contribute and usually by the time
they do you have to decide whether to give them the huge payday or not based
on one years results.

Its one thing for the Pistons or the Spurs or the Mavs etc to take chances
on guys like this because they can let them develop but the Celts take them
needing results much sooner.

On 5/14/07, gene kirkpatrick wrote:
>
> Just wondering Egg (and everyone else), tho' I think some of your prose is
> exaggerated to prompt response, how you evaluate the three possible
"steals"
> of recent years, viz. Al, Gerald, and Rajon? Include any others in the
> assessment--certainly Gomes could be used. How do you assess their talent
> and what do you think they might accomplish in the next 5 to 10 years? Just
> wondering. Cheers, Gene