draft

Fri May 4 18:21:59 CDT 2007

I disagree.  You can't judge danny ainge or any gm by the players taken
ahead of who he selected since he had no shot at them (barring the
ability to trade up, but that is unknown).  It is completely irrelevant.

Nick collision was taken directly ahead of Banks, so what does that tell
you about danny's decision to draft marcus?  I don't think it tells you
anything.

I understand your point in that if you look at a pick, say Kendrick
Perkins, you could say he was a better pick than Ndudi Ebi who went
before him, but the only conclusion you can draw is that the
Timberwolves made a bad pick, you can't say the Celtics made a good pick
based on that because you don't know that danny would not have selected
Ebi over Perkins.  You just know Danny liked perkins above the players
taken after him.

You can only judge a gm by the choices available to him (think of the
picks before him as sunk costs).

Regardless, I hope we get the 1st or second pick and then we will have a
no brainer.

rmn

-----Original Message-----
From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
Behalf Of Phil Maymin
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2007 7:02 PM
To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: draft

No, you have to look ahead too, to maintain relevance and context. The
basic question is what did other GMs do, either before or after. How
good a GM is is relative to how others draft.

Phil

On 5/4/07, ryan nelson <ryanmnelson at verizon.net> wrote:
> Actually, the players taken ahead of our picks are pretty irrelevant
> since danny never theoretically had a chance at them (unless you say
he
> could have traded up).
>
> The only way to judge the effectiveness of a GM's draft picks is to
see
> who was available to him and who he took.
>
> I maintain danny has had two bad drafts and two good ones.  All I can
do
> is look at the data/facts.
>
> rmn
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
> Behalf Of Phil Maymin
> Sent: Friday, May 04, 2007 3:47 PM
> To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
> Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: draft
>
> PERK IS NOT A MISTAKE. PERK RULES.
>
> but to bolster your point about context, we can try the opposite
> exercise as well: how many players taken ahead of e.g. Banks turned
> out to be big-time losers? If that's a long list too, as it has to be
> of course for someone like Gomes, that makes it a better draft pick,
> by essentially the same logic. Unfortunately in this instance there
> was basically nobody ahead of Banks who flopped or didn't quite make
> it, and only a handful ahead of Perk (e.g. Zoran Planinic). And one of
> the flops ahead of big al is bassy.
>
> Phil
>
> On 5/4/07, ryanmnelson at verizon.net <ryanmnelson at verizon.net> wrote:
> > just to build upon the point.
> >
> > Drafting is as much about context as absolute.
> >
> > Using your argument that you can't look at who was available after
the
> pick to judge one's drafting ability is almost nonsensical.  What if
> Ainge had the first pick and selected Yi Jianling (not sure about
> spelling) and he had a solid career but didn't turn out to be the
> franchise players that oden and durant likely will?  would you give
> ainge an A for drafting a solid pro or an F for passing on oden and
> durant?  Sorry, but context matters.  Sam Bowie was a decent player,
> even made an all-rookie team, but picking him over jordan was a
collosal
> mistake.
> >
> > sorry, but absolutes aren't the sole way to grade a draft.
> >
> > Ainge's draft record is pretty spotty in the absolute sense (marcus
> banks, trading #7) and the contextual (passing on barbosa and josh
> howard who went immediately after kendrick perkins and were known
> quantities by scouts).
> >
> > rmn
> >
> >
> > >From: ryanmnelson at verizon.net
> > >Date: 2007/05/04 Fri PM 02:29:24 CDT
> > >To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
> > >Subject: Re: Re: Re: draft
> >
> > >ok, then how should one put a value on danny ainge's drafting
ability
> other than looking at who he picked and who was available?
> > >
> > >Actual performance is not a valid method of evaluation?
> > >
> > >The assertion made was that danny is a good drafter.  I was curious
> if that is actually true.
> > >
> > >My assertion is that it is mixed with big failures (the whole 2003
> draft and last year's draft), a nice sleeper (gomes), a solid 2004
> (jefferson), and a big unknown (green).
> > >
> > >I guess I shouldn't use the facts.
> > >
> > >
> > >rmn
> > >
> > >
> > >>From: asterix ninetynine <asterix_9_9 at yahoo.com>
> > >>Date: 2007/05/04 Fri PM 01:19:54 CDT
> > >>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
> > >>Subject: Re: Re: draft
> > >
> > >>The trap that you've fallen into illustrates the problem with
rating
> drafting ability.  You simply go back and select from everyone taken
> after "player X ".   It's a large pool and simply a poor exercise in
> Monday Morning Quarterbacking.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>ryanmnelson at verizon.net wrote:
> > >>  Perhaps some are overrating danny's drafting ability.
> > >>
> > >>2003 was a disaster. Marcus banks ahead of players like david
west,
> leandro barbosa, boris diaw, luke walton, and josh howard to name a
few.
> Heck the 2 picks right after kendrick perkins (4 points, 5 rebounds
per
> game) were barbosa and howard. Zaza pachulia went 42nd. I give the
2003
> draft an F.
> > >>
> > >>2004 was much better. Jefferson was the right pick at 15. And
taking
> delonte and tony allen were solid as well. The pick right after allen
> and west was kevin martin who is arguably better than both of them
> though (arguably, not definitively). Overall, I would give ainge an A
> for this draft.
> > >>
> > >>2005 is a huge quesiton mark. We took green ahead of hakim
warrick,
> david lee, jarret jack, luther head, and 22 picks ahead of monta
ellis.
> So was Green the right pick? Isn't monta elllis much more polished and
> the same age? I think the jury is still out here. Gomes was a steal at
> the end of the draft but i am not convinced he is anything other than
an
> 8th-9th man on a good team. the classic glue guy, nothing wrong with
> that though, especially so late in the draft. Hard to rate this draft
> because Green can really go either way right now. i'd give Danny a B
on
> this one, largely because of Gomes.
> > >>
> > >>2006 is another failure. Danny decided the talent was not as good
as
> sebastian telfair and thus traded foye/roy (foye actually went #7, not
> sure if we would have swapped him for roy) for telfair. It is still
too
> early to judge rondo but we could have had marcus williams or jordan
> farmar among others. Out of those 3, i can't say who is going to be
> better, too early to tell (hopefully it is rondo). However, deciding
the
> talent wasn't good enough in the top 7 and trading it for telfair
gives
> ainge a D. At #21 there were a number of players he could have taken
> over rondo that could be argued as being better or worse, too early to
> tell on that one.
> > >>
> > >>So by my count
> > >>2003: F
> > >>2004: A
> > >>2005: B
> > >>2006: D (maybe a C if you think rondo is really going to be a
stand
> out, i just don't know right now, but danny gave up huge potential
> here).
> > >>
> > >>So is danny really that great of a drafter? Or is he just good at
> finding a rotation guy (gomes, powe) when other people have given up?
I
> thnk the record is mixed.
> > >>
> > >>rmn
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>>From: Steve Ouellette
> > >>>Date: 2007/05/04 Fri AM 11:30:42 CDT
> > >>>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
> > >>>Cc: steve knight
> > >>>Subject: Re: draft
> > >>
> > >>>I have a lot of faith in Danny's drafting ... but there's no way
he
> finds anyone comparable to Durant later in the draft. If they get pick
1
> or 2, they're not dealing it. If it's later than that, anything could
> happen.
> > >>>
> > >>>Steve O
> > >>>
> > >>>---- steve knight wrote:
> > >>>> well, it's clear now. ainge wants defense. if we have
> > >>>> the first pick, it's oden. if the second pick, don't
> > >>>> be shocked if he gives up durant and trades down a
> > >>>> couple picks for someone else on his wish list and a
> > >>>> rock-solid starter. as much as i'd love to see durant
> > >>>> on this team, i would trust danny to trade down given
> > >>>> his success in finding good young talent. as long as
> > >>>> he gets a solid vet in the process. and i'm not
> > >>>> talking a borderline starter. i'm talking a josh
> > >>>> howard level of talent.
> > >>>>
> > >>>> think 2 for 1 unless we get the top pick. done right,
> > >>>> it will make red proud.
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
>
________________________________________________________________________
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