draft

Fri May 4 18:01:49 CDT 2007

No, you have to look ahead too, to maintain relevance and context. The
basic question is what did other GMs do, either before or after. How
good a GM is is relative to how others draft.

Phil

On 5/4/07, ryan nelson <ryanmnelson at verizon.net> wrote:
> Actually, the players taken ahead of our picks are pretty irrelevant
> since danny never theoretically had a chance at them (unless you say he
> could have traded up).
>
> The only way to judge the effectiveness of a GM's draft picks is to see
> who was available to him and who he took.
>
> I maintain danny has had two bad drafts and two good ones.  All I can do
> is look at the data/facts.
>
> rmn
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
> Behalf Of Phil Maymin
> Sent: Friday, May 04, 2007 3:47 PM
> To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
> Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: draft
>
> PERK IS NOT A MISTAKE. PERK RULES.
>
> but to bolster your point about context, we can try the opposite
> exercise as well: how many players taken ahead of e.g. Banks turned
> out to be big-time losers? If that's a long list too, as it has to be
> of course for someone like Gomes, that makes it a better draft pick,
> by essentially the same logic. Unfortunately in this instance there
> was basically nobody ahead of Banks who flopped or didn't quite make
> it, and only a handful ahead of Perk (e.g. Zoran Planinic). And one of
> the flops ahead of big al is bassy.
>
> Phil
>
> On 5/4/07, ryanmnelson at verizon.net <ryanmnelson at verizon.net> wrote:
> > just to build upon the point.
> >
> > Drafting is as much about context as absolute.
> >
> > Using your argument that you can't look at who was available after the
> pick to judge one's drafting ability is almost nonsensical.  What if
> Ainge had the first pick and selected Yi Jianling (not sure about
> spelling) and he had a solid career but didn't turn out to be the
> franchise players that oden and durant likely will?  would you give
> ainge an A for drafting a solid pro or an F for passing on oden and
> durant?  Sorry, but context matters.  Sam Bowie was a decent player,
> even made an all-rookie team, but picking him over jordan was a collosal
> mistake.
> >
> > sorry, but absolutes aren't the sole way to grade a draft.
> >
> > Ainge's draft record is pretty spotty in the absolute sense (marcus
> banks, trading #7) and the contextual (passing on barbosa and josh
> howard who went immediately after kendrick perkins and were known
> quantities by scouts).
> >
> > rmn
> >
> >
> > >From: ryanmnelson at verizon.net
> > >Date: 2007/05/04 Fri PM 02:29:24 CDT
> > >To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
> > >Subject: Re: Re: Re: draft
> >
> > >ok, then how should one put a value on danny ainge's drafting ability
> other than looking at who he picked and who was available?
> > >
> > >Actual performance is not a valid method of evaluation?
> > >
> > >The assertion made was that danny is a good drafter.  I was curious
> if that is actually true.
> > >
> > >My assertion is that it is mixed with big failures (the whole 2003
> draft and last year's draft), a nice sleeper (gomes), a solid 2004
> (jefferson), and a big unknown (green).
> > >
> > >I guess I shouldn't use the facts.
> > >
> > >
> > >rmn
> > >
> > >
> > >>From: asterix ninetynine <asterix_9_9 at yahoo.com>
> > >>Date: 2007/05/04 Fri PM 01:19:54 CDT
> > >>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
> > >>Subject: Re: Re: draft
> > >
> > >>The trap that you've fallen into illustrates the problem with rating
> drafting ability.  You simply go back and select from everyone taken
> after "player X ".   It's a large pool and simply a poor exercise in
> Monday Morning Quarterbacking.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>ryanmnelson at verizon.net wrote:
> > >>  Perhaps some are overrating danny's drafting ability.
> > >>
> > >>2003 was a disaster. Marcus banks ahead of players like david west,
> leandro barbosa, boris diaw, luke walton, and josh howard to name a few.
> Heck the 2 picks right after kendrick perkins (4 points, 5 rebounds per
> game) were barbosa and howard. Zaza pachulia went 42nd. I give the 2003
> draft an F.
> > >>
> > >>2004 was much better. Jefferson was the right pick at 15. And taking
> delonte and tony allen were solid as well. The pick right after allen
> and west was kevin martin who is arguably better than both of them
> though (arguably, not definitively). Overall, I would give ainge an A
> for this draft.
> > >>
> > >>2005 is a huge quesiton mark. We took green ahead of hakim warrick,
> david lee, jarret jack, luther head, and 22 picks ahead of monta ellis.
> So was Green the right pick? Isn't monta elllis much more polished and
> the same age? I think the jury is still out here. Gomes was a steal at
> the end of the draft but i am not convinced he is anything other than an
> 8th-9th man on a good team. the classic glue guy, nothing wrong with
> that though, especially so late in the draft. Hard to rate this draft
> because Green can really go either way right now. i'd give Danny a B on
> this one, largely because of Gomes.
> > >>
> > >>2006 is another failure. Danny decided the talent was not as good as
> sebastian telfair and thus traded foye/roy (foye actually went #7, not
> sure if we would have swapped him for roy) for telfair. It is still too
> early to judge rondo but we could have had marcus williams or jordan
> farmar among others. Out of those 3, i can't say who is going to be
> better, too early to tell (hopefully it is rondo). However, deciding the
> talent wasn't good enough in the top 7 and trading it for telfair gives
> ainge a D. At #21 there were a number of players he could have taken
> over rondo that could be argued as being better or worse, too early to
> tell on that one.
> > >>
> > >>So by my count
> > >>2003: F
> > >>2004: A
> > >>2005: B
> > >>2006: D (maybe a C if you think rondo is really going to be a stand
> out, i just don't know right now, but danny gave up huge potential
> here).
> > >>
> > >>So is danny really that great of a drafter? Or is he just good at
> finding a rotation guy (gomes, powe) when other people have given up? I
> thnk the record is mixed.
> > >>
> > >>rmn
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>>From: Steve Ouellette
> > >>>Date: 2007/05/04 Fri AM 11:30:42 CDT
> > >>>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
> > >>>Cc: steve knight
> > >>>Subject: Re: draft
> > >>
> > >>>I have a lot of faith in Danny's drafting ... but there's no way he
> finds anyone comparable to Durant later in the draft. If they get pick 1
> or 2, they're not dealing it. If it's later than that, anything could
> happen.
> > >>>
> > >>>Steve O
> > >>>
> > >>>---- steve knight wrote:
> > >>>> well, it's clear now. ainge wants defense. if we have
> > >>>> the first pick, it's oden. if the second pick, don't
> > >>>> be shocked if he gives up durant and trades down a
> > >>>> couple picks for someone else on his wish list and a
> > >>>> rock-solid starter. as much as i'd love to see durant
> > >>>> on this team, i would trust danny to trade down given
> > >>>> his success in finding good young talent. as long as
> > >>>> he gets a solid vet in the process. and i'm not
> > >>>> talking a borderline starter. i'm talking a josh
> > >>>> howard level of talent.
> > >>>>
> > >>>> think 2 for 1 unless we get the top pick. done right,
> > >>>> it will make red proud.
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> ________________________________________________________________________
> ____________
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