draft

Fri May 4 17:48:00 CDT 2007

Actually, the players taken ahead of our picks are pretty irrelevant
since danny never theoretically had a chance at them (unless you say he
could have traded up).

The only way to judge the effectiveness of a GM's draft picks is to see
who was available to him and who he took.

I maintain danny has had two bad drafts and two good ones.  All I can do
is look at the data/facts.

rmn

-----Original Message-----
From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
Behalf Of Phil Maymin
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2007 3:47 PM
To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: draft

PERK IS NOT A MISTAKE. PERK RULES.

but to bolster your point about context, we can try the opposite
exercise as well: how many players taken ahead of e.g. Banks turned
out to be big-time losers? If that's a long list too, as it has to be
of course for someone like Gomes, that makes it a better draft pick,
by essentially the same logic. Unfortunately in this instance there
was basically nobody ahead of Banks who flopped or didn't quite make
it, and only a handful ahead of Perk (e.g. Zoran Planinic). And one of
the flops ahead of big al is bassy.

Phil

On 5/4/07, ryanmnelson at verizon.net <ryanmnelson at verizon.net> wrote:
> just to build upon the point.
>
> Drafting is as much about context as absolute.
>
> Using your argument that you can't look at who was available after the
pick to judge one's drafting ability is almost nonsensical.  What if
Ainge had the first pick and selected Yi Jianling (not sure about
spelling) and he had a solid career but didn't turn out to be the
franchise players that oden and durant likely will?  would you give
ainge an A for drafting a solid pro or an F for passing on oden and
durant?  Sorry, but context matters.  Sam Bowie was a decent player,
even made an all-rookie team, but picking him over jordan was a collosal
mistake.
>
> sorry, but absolutes aren't the sole way to grade a draft.
>
> Ainge's draft record is pretty spotty in the absolute sense (marcus
banks, trading #7) and the contextual (passing on barbosa and josh
howard who went immediately after kendrick perkins and were known
quantities by scouts).
>
> rmn
>
>
> >From: ryanmnelson at verizon.net
> >Date: 2007/05/04 Fri PM 02:29:24 CDT
> >To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
> >Subject: Re: Re: Re: draft
>
> >ok, then how should one put a value on danny ainge's drafting ability
other than looking at who he picked and who was available?
> >
> >Actual performance is not a valid method of evaluation?
> >
> >The assertion made was that danny is a good drafter.  I was curious
if that is actually true.
> >
> >My assertion is that it is mixed with big failures (the whole 2003
draft and last year's draft), a nice sleeper (gomes), a solid 2004
(jefferson), and a big unknown (green).
> >
> >I guess I shouldn't use the facts.
> >
> >
> >rmn
> >
> >
> >>From: asterix ninetynine <asterix_9_9 at yahoo.com>
> >>Date: 2007/05/04 Fri PM 01:19:54 CDT
> >>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
> >>Subject: Re: Re: draft
> >
> >>The trap that you've fallen into illustrates the problem with rating
drafting ability.  You simply go back and select from everyone taken
after "player X ".   It's a large pool and simply a poor exercise in
Monday Morning Quarterbacking.
> >>
> >>
> >>ryanmnelson at verizon.net wrote:
> >>  Perhaps some are overrating danny's drafting ability.
> >>
> >>2003 was a disaster. Marcus banks ahead of players like david west,
leandro barbosa, boris diaw, luke walton, and josh howard to name a few.
Heck the 2 picks right after kendrick perkins (4 points, 5 rebounds per
game) were barbosa and howard. Zaza pachulia went 42nd. I give the 2003
draft an F.
> >>
> >>2004 was much better. Jefferson was the right pick at 15. And taking
delonte and tony allen were solid as well. The pick right after allen
and west was kevin martin who is arguably better than both of them
though (arguably, not definitively). Overall, I would give ainge an A
for this draft.
> >>
> >>2005 is a huge quesiton mark. We took green ahead of hakim warrick,
david lee, jarret jack, luther head, and 22 picks ahead of monta ellis.
So was Green the right pick? Isn't monta elllis much more polished and
the same age? I think the jury is still out here. Gomes was a steal at
the end of the draft but i am not convinced he is anything other than an
8th-9th man on a good team. the classic glue guy, nothing wrong with
that though, especially so late in the draft. Hard to rate this draft
because Green can really go either way right now. i'd give Danny a B on
this one, largely because of Gomes.
> >>
> >>2006 is another failure. Danny decided the talent was not as good as
sebastian telfair and thus traded foye/roy (foye actually went #7, not
sure if we would have swapped him for roy) for telfair. It is still too
early to judge rondo but we could have had marcus williams or jordan
farmar among others. Out of those 3, i can't say who is going to be
better, too early to tell (hopefully it is rondo). However, deciding the
talent wasn't good enough in the top 7 and trading it for telfair gives
ainge a D. At #21 there were a number of players he could have taken
over rondo that could be argued as being better or worse, too early to
tell on that one.
> >>
> >>So by my count
> >>2003: F
> >>2004: A
> >>2005: B
> >>2006: D (maybe a C if you think rondo is really going to be a stand
out, i just don't know right now, but danny gave up huge potential
here).
> >>
> >>So is danny really that great of a drafter? Or is he just good at
finding a rotation guy (gomes, powe) when other people have given up? I
thnk the record is mixed.
> >>
> >>rmn
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>>From: Steve Ouellette
> >>>Date: 2007/05/04 Fri AM 11:30:42 CDT
> >>>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
> >>>Cc: steve knight
> >>>Subject: Re: draft
> >>
> >>>I have a lot of faith in Danny's drafting ... but there's no way he
finds anyone comparable to Durant later in the draft. If they get pick 1
or 2, they're not dealing it. If it's later than that, anything could
happen.
> >>>
> >>>Steve O
> >>>
> >>>---- steve knight wrote:
> >>>> well, it's clear now. ainge wants defense. if we have
> >>>> the first pick, it's oden. if the second pick, don't
> >>>> be shocked if he gives up durant and trades down a
> >>>> couple picks for someone else on his wish list and a
> >>>> rock-solid starter. as much as i'd love to see durant
> >>>> on this team, i would trust danny to trade down given
> >>>> his success in finding good young talent. as long as
> >>>> he gets a solid vet in the process. and i'm not
> >>>> talking a borderline starter. i'm talking a josh
> >>>> howard level of talent.
> >>>>
> >>>> think 2 for 1 unless we get the top pick. done right,
> >>>> it will make red proud.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
________________________________________________________________________
____________
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