Durant rules

[Frederick Hurley]

On Thu, March 1, 2007 2:54 pm, Ryan, Patrick S Maj RES USAFR 439 MSG wrote:
> So since we are dealing with unknowables, and these are complete
> unknowables, why would someone buck example after example where,
> everything
> else being equal, where one position historically achieves ultimate
> success
> to select someone from a position that is much more hit or miss?
> Everything
> else is just gut guesswork (and to wit that's draft methodology in a
> nutshell and why so many GMs make so many mistakes).

Great analysis.  I'd add only one point:

I'd underline the unknowables factor.  This is correct, and yet not.  We
can't know what Durant or Oden (or if you prefer, Center or Wing) will
become in the NBA, let alone whether one will be hit by lightning while
leaving church the week after the draft.  However, we do know that Durant
is dominating games, while Oden is consistently putting up solid
performance.  There may be good reasons for this that will evaporate in
the next year (injury, poor fit with team's style, etc.).  However,
focusing on these players solely in the context of past positionally
similar players ignores that there are two players here.  Durant may well
differ from Lamar Odam because he has a better attitude.  6'10"
off-guards, while rare, have existed in the last few years.  Is Durant so
good that he'll be hands-down a better pro than them?  Maybe.  Is Oden so
good that he deserves to be listed with Hakeem, Shaq, the Admiral (who
didn't win a title without a second franchise center in town), or Moses? 
Or is he Brad Dougherty?  No idea there.

The point is that a true franchise center may always be a safer draft pick
than a true difference-maker swingman - though many of these centers that
won titles had to wait until they were paired with good to great swingmen
- but there is a valid point of discussion here.  Is Oden that francise
center that will LIKELY win an NBA title in his career?  Or is he Brad
Daugherty?  Or Patrick Ewing?  Or Mark Eaton?  Or Rick Smits?  Note, I'd
take most of these guys on the Celts right freaking now.  All miss the
cuts of franchise centers LIKELY to win a title.

I think you're right - you take Oden, and build around him defensively.

But boiling the debate down to Center vs. Wing is ignoring that there are
two flesh-and-blood people here, and assuming that both are what their
boosters say they are.  They may be, but the discussion seems to be
whether or not Oden is the dominant center he was purported to be.  Man,
if that wrist was 100% right now, this'd be a VERY different discussion.