Swingman Lovefest

[Ryan, Patrick S Maj RES USAFR 439 MSG]

And that is exactly why you go with the center because the same thing can be
said for Durant. What if he's Rashard Lewis or Kevin Garnett (who has done
nothing regardless of supporting cast to win a championship - heck he can't
even get teams to the PLAYOFFS most years!)? You go with the odds that say a
franchise center prospect is about (I'm totally guessing here, but I think
this is pretty accurate if you look at franchise centers drafted over the
past 20 years) 3 to 1 odds to win a championship at some point in his
career. A franchise swingman is about 15 to 1 odds (at least if not greater)
to win a championship in his career - especially if you take the one
exception - Michael Jordan - out of the equation.


Even Ewing versus Garnett - at least Ewing's teams were in the playoffs
every year and in the Finals at least once. Garnett hasn't taken his team to
that level at all.

The draft is a crap shoot - either one could go out on draft night and take
a bad hit of cocaine - we know that all too well, but the basic point
remains that you go with the historical data that says that over the past
twenty years the vast majority of franchise centers have won a championship
in their NBA career. 


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That's fine if Oden is Shaq, Robinson, Olajuwon or Duncan. My question is,
what if he's not? What if he's a notch below? Then the two inches height
difference between him and Durant really don't seem to make him a better
choice.

Steve O