No, no, no, no to KG!

[mark at 10thumbs.org]

I can't believe *I'm* saying this --- since like Jeff at Celticsblog --
i've had a huge dream of KG in green for 2+ years now.

But -- and this is key -- GIVEN the Allen deal I'm TOTALLY against giving
up Jefferson for KG. Ray Allen (and his contract) are part of this team.

(All of the following comments are predicated on giving Jefferson an
extension of near-Max $$ (i.e. $12-14M) starting next summer.)

Allen is 2x the player Wally ever was, so the upgrade it talent is being
horribly underated IMO (i think b/c of how much we gave up). But it's
important to note that Allen's deal is a year longer than Wally's which is
significant for a couple reasons:

A KG+Hudson for Wally, #5, Ratliff, Green, etc. would have not put us into
the lux tax land.

A deal for a guy like Gasol, Marion, JO, Kirilenko involving EITHER
Ratliff OR Wally would have put us into Lux Tax land for at most 1 year
(if Ratliff rather than Wally was moved).

But substituting Allen's for Wally's contract would mean that adding a guy
like Kirilenko, Gasol, etc. for Ratliff's contract will put us in Lux Tax
land for 2 years.  I could see the owners saying "we'll pay a 1 time lux
tax ($7M) b/c of the opp. of adding a young guy like AK or Gasol. And
we'll get out of Lux Tax land by letting Wally walk".  I can't say them
saying they'll do it for 2 (or more) years.

Moving Jefferson + Green + Ratliff for KG would avoid the Lux Tax
(assuming we kept Gomes at $3.5 MIl or included him).  But I just can't
believe that Ainge would trade away our entire future (Jefferson + Green)
for a 2-3 year window of Pierce/Allen/KG...

(the otehr) mark