Celtics would be better with KG, but he's probably not enough

[BDodgers at aol.com]

Celtics would be better with KG, but he's probably not enough
 
(http://x.go.com/cgi/x.pl?goto=http://search.espn.go.com/keyword/search?searchString=john_hollinger&name=SEARCH_m_archive&srvc=sz)    
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider 

for a title with a triumvirate of _Ray Allen_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3080) , _Kevin Garnett_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3007)  and _Paul Pierce_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3253) ? Seems like they should, right? ? Seems like 
they should, right? <OFFER>But if they're going to, Danny Ai_Al Jefferson_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3832) , _Ryan Gomes_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3976) , _Sebastian Telfair_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3830)  and _Gerald 
Green_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3944)  to the 
Wolves to get Garnett, as has been reported as likely to happen, the Celtics' team 
president would be denuding the rest of the roster. 

 
 
 
 
 
Hollinger: Revving Up Minny 
How would this proposed deal affect the Timberwolves? Certainly, they'll be 
worse this season. Maybe not '73 Sixers bad, but they're likely to be the worst 
team in the Western Conference.  
However, the pending trade would give them a great opportunity to improve 
quickly. Al Jefferson is a beast in the low post and could be an All-Star in 
another year or two, even in the West. Gerald Green has a chance to be a 20-point 
scorer on the wings, and Sebastian Telfair's career may be salvageable as 
well. Meanwhile, Ryan Gomes adds a solid role player who can play both forward 
spots, and the two first-round picks will be huge in the Wolves' rebuilding 
effort.  
The other big catch here is cap relief. For starters, the Wolves took back 
about $4 million less in contracts than they sent out. Throw in the expiring 
contracts of Ratliff, Ricky Davis, and, if he doesn't pan out, Telfair, and it 
will take over $19 million off Minnesota's books after the season, putting the 
Wolves well under the salary cap next summer.  
While that cap space is unlikely to net one of _next summer's free agent 
superstars_ 
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=FreeAgents08)  -- nobody wants to endure an Arctic winter for 
the privilege of going 28-54 -- it does put Minnesota back into position to 
rebuild around players like Jefferson, Green, Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, and Rashad 
McCants.  
In the meantime, a finished KG deal would mean it's time to break out the 
dynamite in the Twin Cities. Now that Garnett's appears to be gone, there's no 
point in keeping around vets like Juwan Howard, Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, 
Trenton Hassell and Mark Blount -- any or all of them could be dealt or bought out 
in the coming months.  
The only question left is who will do the blasting -- a consummated Garnett 
trade could set the table for team president Kevin McHale to give way and allow 
former Timberwolf Fred Hoiberg to run the team, a change most Wolves fans 
would heartily welcome.  
-- John Hollinger 


Right now the opening day roster would consist of the "Big Three" and not 
much else -- you're basically looking at a glorified version of the _Washington 
Wizards_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=was) , folks.  
Let's look at what that means by the numbers. I have a model I use for 
preseason predictions, and today I used it to plug in the projected PERs for the big 
three, plus those of _Rajon Rondo_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4149) , _Kendrick Perkins_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3730)  and _Leon Powe_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4177) . Then I added an estimate for what _Tony Allen_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3842)  might do in his return 
from knee surgery and rounded out the rotation with three "replacement level" 
players with a PER of 10. After all that I came out with … 46 wins. Which is 
nice, and in a sad commentary on the East puts the Celtics into the mix for a 
spot in the Finals. But at the same time it probably isn't something worth 
mortgaging the franchise over. 
Obviously, Ainge can still change this, but the key is that he has to keep 
making moves. If you're going to go all in, Danny, go all in. Presumably he 
would have secured ownership's approval to use his cap exceptions and go way over 
the luxury tax before consummating this deal. (And if he didn't? Enjoy the 
Scalabrine era, KG.) If so, Ainge will need to use those dollars wisely to fill 
in the many holes left in his roster with decent players.  
The big needs I see are a second point guard, a low-post defender and a wing 
stopper. Between his midlevel exception, his biannual exception and the 
veteran's minimum, Ainge needs to convince the few remaining quality free agents to 
sign up at below-market rates and take a shot at the ring.  
If he does that (and, possibly, if Tony Allen comes back from last year's 
knee injury at full strength), the prospects improve significantly. If Ainge 
convinces, say, _Ime Udoka_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3501)  and _Brevin Knight_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3186)  to split his midlevel exception and persuades _P.J. Brown_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=814)  to play for the 
veteran's minimum, then you're looking at another five wins or so. At that point you'd 
have to install the Celtics as the Eastern Conference favorites, although 
Boston still would fall far short of the elite teams in the West. 
But until then, Ainge's work is far from done. Even in the watered-down 
Eastern Conference, the proposed trio of Pierce, Allen and Garnett doesn't 
guarantee dominance. I suppose there are Celtics Kool-Aid drinkers out there who will 
tell you that _Glen "Big Baby" Davis_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4313)  and _Gabe Pruitt_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4310)  can fill the void, and we won't know for certain 
whether that's true until the games start.  
But the history of second-round draft picks says don't hold your breath, and 
after making moves for Allen and Garnett, probably giving themselves a two- or 
three-year window to contend, it seems foolish for the Celtics to leave their 
fate in those players' hands. 
But in the end, Ainge may come up short regardless of how many more cards he 
plays. The idea of cashing in all your chips is to leave yourself with a team 
that's truly great. The Celtics with Garnett are merely pretty good, and at 
this late stage in the free-agent market, I'm not sure they can get much better. 
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, _click here_ 
(http://sports.espn.go.com/chat/mailbagESPN?event_id=7936) .





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