2007-08 outlook: Whose moves have made them worse?
BDodgers at aol.com
BDodgers at aol.com
Thu Jul 19 17:50:58 CDT 2007
2007-08 outlook: Whose moves have made them worse?
(http://x.go.com/cgi/x.pl?goto=http://search.espn.go.com/keyword/search?searchString=john_hollinger&name=SEARCH_m_archive&srvc=sz)
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Greetings again, and welcome to part deux of my look at how the current
offseason will have an impact on teams in 2007-08. To reiterate a key point, we're
looking at how the teams' moves affect this coming season only -- judging from
the comments on _Wednesday's piece_
(http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=offseasonwinners) I'm not sure
everyone followed that. So for example, the Raptors might regret paying so much
for _Jason Kapono_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3734)
three years from now, but it undoubtedly will help them for the 2007-08
season.
Wednesday we looked at the teams whose moves made them better for 2007-08;
today we're looking at the other side of the coin. I dinged several of these
teams for essentially standing pat because, as I pointed out Wednesday, the way
this business works is that you lose ground if you don't bring in new blood.
Meanwhile, a few teams made moves to make themselves legitimately much worse --
usually with a larger strategy in mind.
I'll pick up where we left off, at No. 16, and work our way down to the team
that's hurt itself the most so far this offseason. Once again, key gains and
losses are in parentheses:
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=orl)
16. _Orlando Magic_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=orl)
(added _Rashard Lewis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3275) ; lost _Grant Hill_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2626) , _Darko Milicic_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3705) and _Travis Diener_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3964) ; replaced Brian Hill with Stan Van Gundy)
They overpaid for Lewis, but picking him up undoubtedly will pay some
short-term dividends. Fair enough. But is Lewis enough to offset the losses of Hill
and Milicic? I dunno. Darko's departure leaves the cupboard looking awfully
bare in the frontcourt, and I don't think signing 6 foot, 11-inch Polish import
Marcin Gortat (rumored to be imminent) changes that picture much.
One other thing to look at is how the Lewis signing has an impact on _Hedo
Turkoglu_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3415) . Both
Lewis and Turkoglu are 6-10, defensively limited and like to shoot jumpers from
the corner. It's not clear to me how both can be on the court at the same
time, at least for long stretches, and I'd like the Magic's offseason a lot better
if they could trade Turkoglu for a decent big man.
However, one positive is the addition of Stan Van Gundy. He was one of the
best, if not the best, coaches available on the market, and his track record
suggests he might improve the Magic's defense quite a bit.
All in all, there are a lot of additions and subtractions to weigh here, but
the end result is that it looks pretty close to a wash.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=den)
17 _Denver Nuggets_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=den)
(added _Chucky Atkins_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3391) ; lost _Steve Blake_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3741) )
The Nuggies pretty much stood pat this offseason, with the one change being
the swap of Blake for Atkins. I like it for two reasons: One, Denver is
desperate for shooting and Atkins can shoot the lights out; and two, even though
Atkins is unlikely to repeat his performance of a year ago, the same can be said
of Blake.
The Nuggets also might get a boost if Kenyon Martin can make a successful
return from a second microfracture surgery, though that's hardly a given.
Nonetheless, compared to the moves made by other Western contenders like Phoenix and
Houston, Denver can't be thinking it gained ground here. You still get the
impression it will take one more decisive move to put the Nuggets into the West's
top three; it might be February before we see it though.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=por)
18. _Portland Trail Blazers_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=por)
(added _Greg Oden_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4243) , _Josh McRoberts_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4314) , Steve Blake, _Channing Frye_ (http://
sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3934) and _James Jones_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3752) ; lost _Zach Randolph_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3531) , _Fred Jones_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3612) , _Dan Dickau_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3625) and _Jamaal Magloire_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3418) ).
I love what the Blazers are building and am as high on their future as
anyone, so you might be surprised to see me rank Portland so low on this list. The
reason is that I'm not sure whether those moves translate into much of a change
in the win column for 2007-08.
The biggest loss is Randolph -- whatever you think of his attitude or his
contract, he was fantastic last season. So even if Oden is equally fantastic, the
Blazers only break even. On the positive side, swapping Magloire for Frye is
a small improvement in the frontcourt second unit, and the changing of the
Joneses on the wing has a similar effect.
But two other moves look like a step back. First, there was the decision to
sign Blake, which seemingly would necessitate the trading of _Jarrett Jack_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3948) -- an odd move
given that Jack is younger, better and makes less. Another loss I didn't put above
because it isn't official yet is _Ime Udoka_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3501) . The Blazers have the maximum 15 players under
contract, including three at Udoka's position, so it's a good bet that last
season's defensive stopper will have a new home. Essentially, Portland gave
Udoka's money to Blake instead.
Like I said, long-term I like this team as much as anyone. But two of the
Blazers' key draft picks -- _Rudy Fernandez_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4302) and _Petteri Koponen_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4308) -- will be in Europe this season. Plus they
just traded the centerpiece of their offense and they're about to lose their
best defender. So Year 1 of the Oden Era might not produce much of a shift in the
win column.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min)
19. _Minnesota Timberwolves_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min)
(added _Corey Brewer_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4285) and _Juwan Howard_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2628) ; lost _Mike James_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3577) )
Obviously, this ranking goes to No. 30 if they deal _Kevin Garnett_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3007) and start over. In the
meantime, their moves to date don't exactly get my heart racing. A lot of
draftniks liked Brewer but I don't see him as more than a role player -- he's a poor
shooter and a poor dribbler, which makes me wonder how he'll score more than
10 points a game or so. And in terms of 2007-08 impacts, Brewer just adds to
the Wolves' hordes on the wings, along with _Ricky Davis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3264) , _Marko Jaric_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3429) , _Trenton Hassell_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3539) and _Rashad McCants_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3940) .
As for Howard, he filled a need because Minnesota's frontcourt was a mess,
but the trade of James leaves an arguably larger void. The point now looks to be
split between the moderately capable hands of _Randy Foye_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4135) and the utterly incapable ones of
_Troy Hudson_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3235) .
Losing James also takes away their best shooter and, on the rare occasions when
Randy Wittman deigned to play him in the fourth quarter, one of their best
crunch-time shot makers. To lose that for a No. 4 big man (no way he's better
than _Craig Smith_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4164)
) doesn't strike me as a step forward.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=njn)
20. _New Jersey Nets_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=njn)
(added _Sean Williams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4295) and Jamaal Magloire; lost _Mikki Moore_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3308) , _Hassan Adams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4182) and _Clifford Robinson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=287) )
Moore's 2006-07 season was a fluke so the Nets were wise not to match
Sacramento's offer. That said, I'm a little puzzled by the succession strategy. The
Nets chose to pursue the declining Magloire, and managed to pay him just enough
that they had to waive Hassan Adams to avoid the luxury tax.
Look, I know Magloire still has a big name and all, but did the Nets see this
guy play the last two seasons? He's become slower than a Galapagos tortoise,
to the point that I'm not sure I'd trade Adams for him straight up. To end up
having to waive the guy just to get Magloire, when offering a mere $400K less
would have avoided the whole problem, seems positively reckless.
That's doubly so when losing Adams means committing minutes to überbust
_Antoine Wright_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3941) . I'd
rate the Nets lower but at least they drafted Williams, who should replace a
lot of the energy plays that Moore provided a year ago.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lac)
21. _L.A. Clippers _ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lac)
(added _Al Thornton_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4292) ; lost _Jason Hart_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3448) , _Daniel Ewing_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3958) and _James Singleton_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4055) )
I'll bump up this rating a little if they can nab _Steve Francis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3325) . But only a little, because
_Elton Brand_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3324)
would never see the ball again. He'd just wave his hand helplessly in the post
while Francis and _Cuttino Mobley_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3284) relive their monogamous passing routine from their Houston
days ("Francis, back to Mobley … over to Francis … change sides and dishes to
Mobley … back over to Francis who dribbles out top … two on the shot clock …
Francis kicks to Mobley, his jumper from the corner is up and …"). The other
three guys might as well play with their arms inside their jerseys.
In the meantime, the Clips find themselves without a point guard after losing
Hart to Utah and dropping Ewing. They also needlessly cut Singleton loose,
even though he sure looked like an NBA talent during his limited opportunities
with the Clips. As for Thornton, the fact that he was at least a year older
than everyone he played against in college -- and in many cases several years
older -- apparently hasn't caught on with everyone yet, but I don't have high
hopes for him in the pros.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=uth)
22. _Utah Jazz_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=uth)
(added Jason Hart, _Morris Almond_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4303) ; lost _Derek Fisher_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3125) )
Fisher did the Jazz a huge favor by walking away from the final three years
of his contract, and it might be even more of a favor if it persuades Jerry
Sloan to play _Ronnie Brewer_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4142) once in awhile.
But in the short-term, it leaves a dent. Hart will take over the minutes
behind _Deron Williams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3929) and should do a decent job, especially at the defensive end. And Almond
fills a need by giving the Jazz another true shooting guard, one whose strengths
and weakness pretty much offset those of Brewer. But in terms of 2007-08,
losing Fisher makes the difficult task of getting back to the conference finals
even harder.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=dal)
23. _Dallas Mavericks_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=dal)
(added _Nick Fazekas_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4312) )
Lots of smoke and no fire from the Mavs so far, which isn't the way we
thought they'd proceed after their 67-win season went up in flames during a
first-round loss to Golden State. Give Mark Cuban credit for not hitting the panic
button, but I don't think re-signing _Devean George_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3346) is going to be the answer here. We keep
hearing whispers about their interest in Kevin Garnett or other star talents, but
so far they've come up empty.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=ind)
24. _Indiana Pacers_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=ind)
(added _Kareem Rush_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3618) ; lost _Maceo Baston_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3301) ; replaced Rick Carlisle with Jim O'Brien)
I like O'Brien and think his focus on the longball might help _Troy Murphy_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3524) in particular.
But the Pacers' implosion at the end of last year called for radical surgery,
and so far we haven't seen Indy break out the scalpel.
Losing Baston was unfortunate -- the guy can play -- but inevitable given
this team's frontcourt logjam. Of far greater importance is finding a real, live
NBA shooting guard -- they can't possibly try to pass off _Mike Dunleavy_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3601) as a solution again,
can they? We keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on a _Jermaine O'Neal_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3120) trade as well,
but nothing has come to fruition thus far.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=cle)
25. _Cleveland Cavaliers_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=cle)
(no activity).
With the team saddled with bad contracts, no draft picks and limited trade
assets, it's been crickets on the shores of Lake Erie this summer. At least the
Cavs won't sustain any losses, as the wonders of restricted free agency are
likely to keep _Anderson Varejao_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3847) and _Sasha Pavlovic_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3722) in Cleveland for at least one more year.
But the Cavs are desperate for point guard help and will need it to get back
to the Finals -- the East can't stay this pathetic forever. If you're
wondering, I don't think _Mike Bibby_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3245) is the answer either, especially if it involves giving up _Drew
Gooden_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3602) to get
him.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mil)
26. _Milwaukee Bucks_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mil)
(added _Jake Voskuhl_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=0879) ; might add _Yi Jianlian_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4284) ; lost _Ersan Ilyasova_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3962) )
It's questionable how much Yi would contribute this coming season even if the
Bucks can strong-arm him into joining the team. And it will be downright
embarrassing if he calls Milwaukee's bluff, sits the year out and tries to leave
the Bucks empty-handed.
In the meantime, the Bucks already lost a promising forward in Ilyasova, who
got a nice deal to play in Spain. Below the radar, it looks like they're also
losing _Ruben Patterson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3274) -- who was arguably their best player last season. Even if they sign
_Desmond Mason_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3416) ,
something that's been rumored to be imminent, that doesn't come close to
filling the void. At least they avoided a full-scale disaster when _Mo Williams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3750) agreed to return
to the Bucks by signing a six-year deal.
Also, they signed Voskuhl to shore up their frontcourt. That changes
everything.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sas)
27. _San Antonio Spurs_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sas)
(lost _Jackie Butler_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3909) and the rights to Luis Scola)
I understand why San Antonio made the trade it did with Houston, but I think
the Spurs might regret it given how powerful it makes the Rockets.
Nonetheless, the realities for the Spurs were that they wanted to drop Butler's contract
and get under the luxury tax, and that letting _Vassilis Spanoulis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3867) out of his contract
provided an avenue to do that. They also had a clock ticking on the rights to Scola
-- his buyout had only a few days left when the deal was struck, and after
that date the value of those rights would have been practically worthless.
Additionally, the cash they got from Houston could have a very important
benefit -- it essentially might pay for Ime Udoka, whom they are trying to woo
away from Portland. Udoka is a high-character guy, defends well and can shoot 3s
from the corner -- if you're thinking "Bowen succession strategy," award
yourself a point. Obviously, if the Spurs get Udoka, they'll move up this list.
But I can only rate teams based on what they've done to date. For now, San
Antonio's moves have made a key competitor stronger while doing nothing for
itself, and until or unless the Spurs make an addition, they haven't addressed the
serious age problem on the wings.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia)
28. _Miami Heat_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia)
(added _Daequan Cook_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4299) , lost Jason Kapono)
The Heat have taken a big swing and a whiff in the free-agent market, getting
played by Mo Williams and in the meantime seeing all the other decent point
guards sign with other teams. Even now, whomever they end up with can't be any
worse than _Gary Payton_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=259) was last season, but that's not the only area that needs fixing.
Kapono's departure takes away their most reliable shooter, an important
commodity given all the attention _Dwyane Wade_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3708) and _Shaquille O'Neal_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=847) command. Another wing shooter, _James Posey_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3341) , might be
following him out the door -- which would have Miami scrambling to replace both of
its small forwards.
Throw in the news that Wade's recovery from offseason knee and shoulder
surgery might last into training camp and beyond, and it's hardly been a stellar
summer for the Heat -- and they're the one team whose age problems make it most
imperative that they add new blood.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gsw)
29. _Golden State Warriors_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gsw)
(added _Brandan Wright_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4286) and _Marco Belinelli_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4296) ; lost _Jason Richardson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3515) )
The Warriors can salvage their offseason if they can pull off a deal for
Kevin Garnett or leverage their assets to get a similar wattage star.
But at the moment it seems they'll have an awful lot of trouble replicating
the magical ending to last season. Richardson was hurt much of the season but
his return was one of the biggest keys to Golden State's awesome stretch run.
Now the Warriors are without him and might lose two other key wings in unsigned
free agents _Mickael Pietrus_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2173) and _Matt Barnes_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3643) .
Folks are talking up Belinelli as a quality replacement for Richardson after
his scorching hot summer league effort. However, his European numbers say he's
not all that, and I trust those results a lot more than five pick-up games
against the league's B-listers. Maybe Belinelli will be the exception who blows
away his translated European stats, but I wouldn't bet on it. As for Wright, I
like him as a prospect but his time is likely a couple years down the road,
as his body fills out and he better learns how to tap his undeniable potential.
____________________________________
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sea)
30. _Seattle SuperSonics_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sea)
(added _Kevin Durant_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4244) , _Jeff Green_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4247) , _Delonte West_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3841) and _Wally Szczerbiak_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3329) ; lost _Ray Allen_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3080) and Rashard Lewis; replaced Bob Hill with P.J. Carlesimo)
Durant is going to be amazing, and getting West in the Allen trade was an
underrated coup for new Sonics GM Sam Presti. But Seattle's moves have been made
with the idea of blowing up the old crew and starting anew with this one, and
it seems inevitable that this will set Seattle back in the short-term.
Allen and Lewis are two of the deadliest shooters in the game, and allowed
the Sonics to have one of the league's most efficient offenses. Durant, no
matter how good he is in five years, is unlikely to replace that kind of production
as a rookie, which means the Sonics have to get much better defensively just
to tread water.
Figuring out how to improve their deficient defense might not be easy, since
it's an area where most young players learn the hard way. The return of
_Robert Swift_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3829) should
at least shore up the interior a bit, but in terms of what they gained and
lost in the offseason, the 2007-08 Sonics don't appear as strong as the 2006-07
version.
That's OK in this case -- it's the 2009-10 Seattle Sonics (or Las Vegas
Rollers or Oklahoma City Tornadoes or whatever they're calling themselves then)
that other teams should fear, and Seattle's offseason was a strong step in that
direction. Again, we've just been looking at 2007-08 here -- if we're rating
long-term impacts, Seattle zooms way up the list.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, _click here_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/chat/mailbagESPN?event_id=7936) .
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