You can pick your nose and you can pick your draftchoice, but...

[Berry, Mark S]

I'm going to jump in and defend Gene. I used to feel the same way, and
still feel a little hesitation, although Bosh's numbers are starting to
become undeniable. Still, he's just one of those guys who gets soft
numbers. I never watch the Celtics play the Raptors and feel like Bosh
is dominating the game. He sets up at the elbow and shoots those elbow
jumpers -- he's very good at them -- but he's not a guy who makes the
whole defense collapse.

Having said that ... he has gotten so good at what he does, and improved
his rebounding enough, that it's hard to argue that Jefferson is a
better bet at this point. But if Al continues to improve and becomes a
20 ppg scorer, I think it's an argument we could return to at some
point. Al already demands a double team. Those back-to-the-basket guys
have a greater impact than the face-up 15-foot jump shooters. It's not
just about the numbers.

Right now, it's Bosh. But it's not as clear cut as just throwing numbers
against each other.

Mark

-----Original Message-----
From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
Behalf Of ryanmnelson at verizon.net
Sent: Friday, February 09, 2007 11:08 AM
To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: You can pick your nose and you can pick your
draftchoice, but...

Bosh averaged 22 and 9 last year while shooting 50% from the floor and
82% from the line.  His numbers have gone up to 23 and 10 this year and
2.5 assists.

Over the last month, Bosh has been averaging 28 points and 9 boards
while shooting 55% and getting more defensive pressure than Al.  Toronto
is also playing above .500 with marginal talent after Bosh.

Over the last month, Al's big breakout, Al is averaging 15 points (~half
as many as Bosh), shooting only 44%, and grabbing 12 boards a game
(though i would argue many of those boards are rebounds off his own
misses, 44% for a big man is really bad).  

And guess what, Bosh is only 9 months older than our boy wonder Al.

Al will never be Bosh.

rmn



>From: Sean Giovanello <giovanello at gmail.com>
>Date: 2007/02/09 Fri AM 09:55:58 CST
>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List <celtics at igtc.com>
>Subject: Re: Re: Re: You can pick your nose and you can pick your draft
choice,	but...

>What did Al show prior to this year?  I dont see how anyone picks Al
over
>Bosh unless they are wearing Chris Wallace tinged glasses and drinking
green
>beer from sunup to sundown.  I think most people around the league
would
>take Bosh over Gasol and Jefferson is just the starting point in
discussions
>for Gasol.
>
>On 2/9/07, gene kirkpatrick <gk_tyler at yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>> no.  I like Bosh but think he's a bit soft.  He's shown a lot more
this
>> year, which might mean that he's hitting his stride.  I like Al's
body
>> better and his drive, especially in rebounding.  I think he will be a
better
>> low post scorer; clearly, Bosh has the shooting touch over him now.
>>
>> ryanmnelson at verizon.net wrote:  you're joking about taking Al over
Bosh,
>> right?
>>
>> rmn
>>
>> >From: gene kirkpatrick
>> >Date: 2007/02/09 Fri AM 08:17:40 CST
>> >To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
>> >Subject: Re: Re: You can pick your nose and you can pick your draft
>> choice, but...
>>
>> >fair enough; especially since I would take Al over Bosh right now
>> >
>> >ryanmnelson at verizon.net wrote: ok Gene, gentleman's bet then. mark
it
>> down and we'll talk in 8 years.
>> >
>> >just to be clear, the all-star forwards this year are Chris Bosh,
Caron
>> Butler, Dwight Howard, Rip Hamilton, Jermaine O'Neal, Vince Carter
>> (guard/forward), Carlos Boozer, Tim Duncan, Garnett, Shawn Marion,
and Dirk.
>> >
>> >I don't see Al ever being as good as those guys, except for maybe
Caron
>> Butler, but he is a bit of an anomaly this year (maybe al is that
anomaly in
>> the next 8 years, but i am not holding my breath).
>> >
>> >Anyway, Bosh and Howard will be on the team every year Al is playing
so
>> that leaves ~8-9 spots for Al to take with many of those tied up for
the
>> next 3-4 years (Dirk, duncan, garnett,marion). With Durant coming
into the
>> league as well as some other solid forward prospects and superior
players to
>> Al like Zach Randolph still around, i highly doubt Al has much of an
>> opportunity to make an all-star game.
>> >
>> >All speculation though.
>> >
>> >rmn
>> >
>> >rmn
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >>From: gene kirkpatrick
>> >>Date: 2007/02/08 Thu PM 02:35:24 CST
>> >>To: The Boston Celtics Mailing List
>> >>Subject: Re: You can pick your nose and you can pick your draft
choice,
>> but...
>> >
>> >>If I were a betting person, I would throw down on this one. If Al's
>> level is that of double doubles, then the odds would be that
somewhere in
>> the next 8 years, he would be an all-star. The argument that what
he's doing
>> now is all we can expect of him is speculation. Who knows? But he's
not
>> overachieving; I think that's clear after two months. What he has
shown
>> offensively is the floor, not the ceiling--imo. Plus, tho' a tweener
and not
>> in the class with Dwight Howard, Gomes is closer to a starter in his
recent
>> play that most had thought. He's showing some serious shooting
ability. I
>> don't think the Haslems of the world have that ability. I think we
need a
>> big with superior rebounding ability at his position, but am very
pleased
>> with his progress on offense.
>> >>
>> >> No doubt this is a miserable time, but we have a few gems out
there
>> getting experience. Just in the last week, Rondo has settled the
point guard
>> issue (well, to my satisfaction). And he's not merely serviceable;
the kid
>> is brilliant. Seeing him develop along with Al and Gomes is pretty
big for
>> next year. Gene
>> >>
>> >>ryanmnelson at verizon.net wrote:
>> >> 1. i will bet anyone on this list that Al Jefferson never makes an
>> all-star team. I know it is not hard to value an asset you hope is
going to
>> be worth 2-3x in the future, but you have to be realistic. If he were
on
>> another team, none of you would be mentioning him as a potential
all-star. I
>> am not arguing that he is a bust, I thnk he can put up 17 and 10, but
only
>> when he is playing with a better player to take away the double
teams. He is
>> no Zach Randolph, which is his ceiling, and right now he is not even
Nick
>> Collison. And i would gladly lose this bet.
>> >>
>> >>2. What happens if we don't get the 1 or 2 pick or Oden and/or
Durant
>> don't come out? What happens if we take our crappy team as it
currently
>> exists and get Pierce back and then add Wright from UNC (who looked
very
>> good last night) or Noah (who i think can be a better Battier type
player,
>> which is pretty good but not all-star)? Seriously, how bad are we
going to
>> be if this draft fails us (we don't get oden or durant) and we still
have
>> boywonder danny, media saavy doc, chris "i traded for vin baker"
wallace,
>> and the brain doctor running our team? Can we take another year of
this?
>> >>
>> >>rmn
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>>From: "Ryan, Patrick S Maj RES USAFR 439 MSG"
>> >>
>> >>>Date: 2007/02/08 Thu PM 12:56:59 CST
>> >>>To: celtics at igtc.com
>> >>>Subject: You can pick your nose and you can pick your draft
choice,
>> but...
>> >>
>> >>>
>> >>>"What I feel people do not understand is just how far we have
fallen
>> behind
>> >>>other teams who have received more lottery picks than us,
>> >>>and therefore many more talented young players than us." - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>Huh? Other teams that have had more lottery picks then us (all
other
>> things
>> >>>being equal) SHOULD be better then us! How many lottery picks have
we
>> had?
>> >>>And not just lottery picks but picks 1-4 (where the big money
all-star
>> is)??
>> >>>I'll tell you - none.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>"Jefferson has looked good offensively, but is the total package a
>> future
>> >>>franchise player; I don't think so." - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>I don't think so either, but he's gonna be a borderline guy, will
make
>> a
>> >>>couple (few) All-Star teams, command double teams (making the rest
of
>> the
>> >>>team get better looks) and get double-doubles most nights if he
keeps
>> up his
>> >>>current effort. For where we picked him in the draft you can't do
any
>> >>>better then that. Plus we have him for what - two more years at
rookie
>> >>>scale???? Every team that's won it all lately has had this type
guy
>> that
>> >>>quietly has double-double or close to double-double numbers.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>"Tony Allen ... too much baggage to ever fully succeed." - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>It's not so much the baggage - it's the injury. His skills were so
>> >>>predicated on quickness and burst that I just can't see him coming
back
>> the
>> >>>same in the time we have him signed for and in reality wouldn't
re-sign
>> him
>> >>>unless it was a one-two year minimum to see if he's ever going to
>> return to
>> >>>the brief glimpse we got. So here I agree - even though his
defense was
>> >>>crucial the injury has totally removed him from any plans I'd make
for
>> the
>> >>>Celtics future.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>"Three of my favorite young guys, Gomes/West/Perk are
heads-on-straight
>> glue
>> >>>guys. But would they be much more than
>> >>>complementary players on a topnotch team?" - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>Role players. Which, for where they were selected in the draft is
>> exactly
>> >>>what they should be! A second rounder and two guys selected in the
late
>> >>>first round have about a 70-30 chance of busting (70) versus
making it
>> (30 -
>> >>>meaning playing more then three years or beyond their rookie
deal).
>> What
>> >>>should have been done instead with those picks? There isn't the
NFL
>> luxury
>> >>>of cutting these guys and going out and signing three vet starters
for
>> the
>> >>>same money. When you say you do not understand on your first
comment it
>> is
>> >>>this I don't comprehend - what exactly should have been done with
these
>> >>>selections? You can't trade picks for anyone good because of the
salary
>> cap.
>> >>>Should we have tanked THEN instead?
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>"Fun to watch pure point guard Rondo, an unlimited ceiling ...
hope so,
>> but
>> >>>maybe not." - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>Another twenty something pick right? So what's the downside? If he
>> makes it
>> >>>big once again he's more then the value of what that level pick is
>> supposed
>> >>>to be. Even if he is just a 10 year NBA guy that's exactly what
twenty
>> >>>something picks are supposed to be!! The fallacy here is that we
can
>> just
>> >>>cut these guys after a year or so, no harm no foul. The NBA
doesn't
>> work
>> >>>that way. Trades? Sure, but you have to throw in what, about three
>> rookie
>> >>>contracts to get one player back equal money? Another of Ainge's
>> mistakes is
>> >>>that he is trying to balance future and present, which again due
to the
>> >>>system leaves you mediocre forever. Add in his trying to go
"future"
>> with
>> >>>mid-twenty draft picks and of course we're stuck with little
leverage.
>> Once
>> >>>again - if you choose "future" you have to fail miserably at least
one
>> >>>season (if not more if there isn't a "franchise" guy coming out)
to get
>> >>>all-star talent in the draft. If you choose "present" you have to
have
>> an
>> >>>owner that will spend, spend, spend (but you could end up the
Knicks
>> instead
>> >>>of the Mavs so be warned). The only way I can think of to balance
the
>> system
>> >>>is to know when to trade those aging vets for #1 picks to bad
teams so
>> you
>> >>>can replenish with HIGH draft picks to an already good team.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>"Telfair, no way; Powe, no way. Allen Ray, no way." - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>Yep - Telfair = Ainge's biggest mistake by far. We know that. Powe
and
>> Ray -
>> >>>their salaries together don't bring in a difference maker. Maybe
we
>> could
>> >>>sign a vet min. guy - okay, I'll grant that and based on my last
post
>> maybe
>> >>>that's exactly what Ainge should've done, forgone the Ray's and
Powe's
>> of
>> >>>the world, but they weren't expected to play anyway. How many NBA
teams
>> go
>> >>>13 men deep? None, they're not supposed to, but I agree that some
teams
>> >>>stash vets there to be insurance while most teams stash a couple
>> late/second
>> >>>round projects just to see if they can catch lightning in a
bottle.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>"And even if we get lucky and draft young Oden, we will still be
>> several
>> >>>years away (if ever) from accomplishing the mission Danny set out
>> >>>to accomplish in three years time." - Egg
>> >>>
>> >>>That requires prognostication skills I don't possess. Who can
tell, but
>> >>>let's say we do get lucky and draft either Oden or Durant. If we
stay
>> >>>"normally healthy" meaning we don't lose Pierce an extended period
and
>> no
>> >>>other starter is lost for more then 7-10 games, none concurrently,
then
>> that
>> >>>is undoubtedly Danny Ainge's LAST CHANCE. If that team cannot make
the
>> >>>playoffs at a minimum then Danny Ainge (along with Doc at
mid-season)
>> should
>> >>>be fired - no doubt, no question, no argument.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
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