Blockbuster Breakdown
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BDodgers at aol.com
Sat Dec 22 18:56:32 CST 2007
Blockbuster Breakdown
(http://x.go.com/cgi/x.pl?goto=http://search.espn.go.com/keyword/search?searchString=marc_stein&name=SEARCH_m_archive&srvc=sz)
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
The one-year anniversary of _Allen Iverson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3094) 's first game as a Nugget is Saturday. Which
naturally made us nostalgic.
It also made me think of poor Philadelphia and the NBA maxim that says
blockbuster trades never work out well for the team that surrenders the superstar …
like when Philly only managed to get Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry and Andrew Lang
for Charles Barkley in 1992.
Throw in Wednesday's theater of _Kevin Garnett_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3007) 's first big game as a Celtic and the
not-going-away curiosity about the futures of _Kobe Bryant_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3118) and _Jason Kidd_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2625) and this seems like an ideal time to take
stock of the league's last five superstar trades and rank them 1 to 5 in
terms of how they worked out for the team giving up its franchise player.
For folks out there who are desperate for B-I-G deals, there's good news: All
five of these megadeals were consummated in the past 3½ years. Who says no
one makes trades?
Yet for the teams starting anew, there's mostly sad news: One trade was way
ahead of the other four in terms of approaching equal value … and even that one
didn't work out quite right for the club selling off its cornerstone.
Our breakdown follows, in two parts:
1. The Shaq Trade
Lakers got: _Caron Butler_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3608) , _Lamar Odom_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3327) , _Brian Grant_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2631) , a 2006 first-round pick (used to select _Jordan Farmar_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4154) at No. 26) and a 2007
second-round pick (which was later traded to Dallas)
Date: July 14, 2004
_Shaquille O'Neal_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=847) 's age when dealt to Miami: 32
The assessment: The Lakers are habitually hammered for what they were willing
to take back in exchange for O'Neal, largely because they haven't won a
playoff series since and because Shaq proceeded to help Miami win its first
championship in franchise history.
History, however, suggests that the Lakers might have actually fared better
trading their superstar than any team previously … and definitely any team
since.
L.A.'s real crime is what it did after this blockbuster. After just one
season -- which happens to be the only season in the past nine in which Phil
Jackson didn't coach the Lakers -- Butler and _Chucky Atkins_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3391) were shipped to Washington for _Kwame
Brown_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3511) .
Oops.
I have to put my hand up and admit that I, too, thought it was a worthy
gamble at the time, since Brown was a 7-foot No. 1 overall draft pick who was still
only 23. You could understand, even after they had just drafted _Andrew
Bynum_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3936) one month
earlier, why the Lakers thought they had to gamble on more size, still unsure at
that stage how they'd cope long-term without O'Neal.
But just imagine now if the Lakers had kept Butler in a three-man core with
Bryant and Odom, joined by the blossoming Bynum and the role-player support of
_Luke Walton_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3735) ,
_Derek Fisher_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3125) ,
Farmar, etc. In this era when rugged, mobile, versatile athletes like Butler
who can shoot with range and shift between small forward and power forward are
more valuable than ever, L.A. would really have something, especially given how
Bynum is developing.
Butler's game has evolved so nicely that there are surely some Heat fans out
there, fearing how much farther their freefalling team of oldies will
nosedive, asking their own what-ifs. Since it's not my money, I'm 100 percent sold
that the steep price Miami has paid -- and will continue to pay with Shaq due to
earn $40 million over the next two seasons and no easy fixes to reload around
_Dwyane Wade_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3708) --
was well worth it for that first championship so many other teams and great
players are still chasing. But Butler is that good now. He at least makes you
think about it.
2: The Not-So-Fab Four
The NBA's other four most recent superstar trades, all of which make the Shaq
trade look borderline shrewd for the Lakers:
2. The KG Trade
Timberwolves got: _Al Jefferson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3832) , _Ryan Gomes_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3976) , _Sebastian Telfair_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3830) , _Gerald Green_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3944) , _Theo Ratliff_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3020) and two future first-round draft picks
Date: July 31, 2007
Kevin Garnett's age when dealt to Boston: 31
The assessment: This should tell you how poorly teams generally do when they
trade away a franchise player. A deal skewered here (and elsewhere) countless
times in the five months since it went down ranks as the second-best of its
kind that we've seen in the past few years. Really.
Our original issues with Minnesota's thinking haven't changed. The Wolves
waited at least one year too long to finally move Garnett, for starters, and came
away with a fistful of maybes when they finally jumped.
Yes: Ratliff's contract provides some salary-cap relief for the Wolves. Yes:
Getting back the first-round pick sent to Boston in January 2006 in the _Ricky
Davis_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3264) -_Wally
Szczerbiak_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3329) trade
is a good thing, because the starting-over Wolves are so bad now. That pick
is destined for the upper reaches of the lottery.
However …
Gomes is unlikely to be considered rotation-player material by any good team
while Telfair and Green are coveted by no team. Boston's first-round pick in
2009, furthermore, will almost certainly be a late first-rounder -- and thus
nothing to get too giddy about -- unless you think Garnett, _Paul Pierce_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3253) and _Ray Allen_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3080) will somehow miss the
playoffs next season.
So it's basically Al Jefferson, one lottery pick and financial flexibility in
exchange for the player synonymous with 'Sota. Only one player, at this
point, guaranteed to be a factor for a contender. Enough for you?
One rival executive we spoke with had some sympathy for the Wolves, since
Jefferson already does look like a future All-Star. Said the GM: "They do get
some points for getting a good big back."
Yet you'd like to think that they could have scored more for KG than "some
points."
____________________________________
3. The A.I. Trade
76ers got: _Andre Miller_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3331) , _Joe Smith_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3003) and two 2007 first-round picks
Date: Dec. 19, 2006
Allen Iverson's age when dealt to Denver: 31
The assessment: As of Friday morning, Denver was a mere 46-38 since acquiring
Iverson and is still not considered an elite team, even with one of the
league's three highest payrolls.
Yet you still have to ask, one year later: How could the Nuggets not make
this trade for what little it cost them in terms of assets?
Right. If Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke was willing to absorb the financial cost
involved -- and it's a considerable cost given the skepticism that persists
about Iverson, _Carmelo Anthony_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3706) and the cast around them ever reaching the NBA elite -- it was
and remains a slam-dunk deal.
I suppose Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski can still change the complexion
of things here if he gets a good piece or two in a trade for Miller between
now and February. Or if the Miller deal that's widely expected around the
league in the next six weeks simply creates more salary-cap space for the Sixers,
in addition to the financial flexibility Smith's contract created.
As it stands, though, Philly only has Miller, rookie _Jason Smith_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4298) , salary-cap relief and a
bit of drama relief to show for the KG-type figure synonymous with this
franchise … and no discernible franchise player to build around. The leaguewide
consensus on both Andres -- Miller and _Andre Iguodala_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3826) -- is that both players should be cast as
no more than the third- or fourth-best player on the team. "Iguodala is a No. 3
and Miller is a No. 4 or 5," insists one West exec.
The ability to get two first-rounders from the Nuggets was the clincher that
prompted Stefanski's predecessor Billy King to take Denver's offer, but those
picks only turned out to be No. 21 and the final pick of the first round at
No. 30. The Sixers swapped with Miami on draft night to move up one spot to take
Smith, then traded No. 30 to Portland (which selected Finland's Petteri
Koponen) for a second-rounder (No. 42 overall pick Derrick Byars) who didn't make
it out of training camp.
____________________________________
5 (tie). The T-Mac Trade
Magic got: _Steve Francis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3325) , _Cuttino Mobley_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3284) and _Kelvin Cato_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3185)
Date: June 29, 2004
_Tracy McGrady_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3179)
's age when dealt to Houston: 25
The assessment: With trades like this one and the next one, there really
isn't a No. 4. Equal dissing with the _Vince Carter_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3248) trade feels like the most appropriate
treatment.
After swiping McGrady from the Raptors at the cost of a single first-round
pick in 2000, Orlando didn't get a single future pick from Houston when it
shipped T-Mac out along with _Juwan Howard_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2628) , _Tyronn Lue_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3266) and _Reece Gaines_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3718) . And none of the principals obtained by the Magic are
still with the team … including the front-office guy with the hockey
background (John Weisbrod) who made the deal.
Francis was traded to New York within two years for _Trevor Ariza_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3860) and Penny Hardaway's
expiring contract. Although that move did help to create the salary-cap space that
enabled Orlando to sign _Rashard Lewis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3275) in the summer of 2007, it's a stretch to make too much
of that connection because (a) that certainly wasn't the plan when Francis
was acquired and (b) Weisbrod's replacement, Otis Smith, also had to cut ties
with _Grant Hill_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2626)
and _Darko Milicic_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3705) before there was sufficient payroll room to give Lewis his $118 million.
The Magic got tons more out of McGrady's disastrous final season in town than
they manufactured by actually moving him. With a 21-61 finish lowlighted by a
19-game losing streak in his farewell season, Orlando won the 2004 lottery
and the right to draft _Dwight Howard_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3818) five days before the trade that ended the T-Mac Era. The
Magic also snared _Jameer Nelson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3837) in the draft when Nelson slipped to No. 20.
____________________________________
5 (tie). The Vince Trade
Raptors got: _Alonzo Mourning_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=845) , _Aaron Williams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2222) , _Eric Williams_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3016) and two 2005 first-round picks
Date: Dec. 17, 2004
Vince Carter's age when dealt to New Jersey: 26
The assessment: It's probably no coincidence that three of the five GMs who
swung these trades no longer work for those teams.
One could broaden the examination to investigate (for the umpteenth time in
the last year or two) how or why Kevin McHale hasn't made it four out of five
to be dismissed, but we'll focus here on Babcock's brief Toronto tenure and how
he sealed his dismissal with the Carter nightmare … which ironically led to
Minnesota promptly hiring him back as a top aide to McHale.
The pressure was already mounting after Babcock's first draft pick -- _Rafael
Araujo_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3825) at a
way-too-high No. 8 in 2004 -- flopped almost immediately. Carter then began the
following season in shutdown mode, playing lifelessly until he convinced the
Raptors that they had to take whatever they could get for him.
Carter must have been convincing, because the Raps actually received less
than whatever. Worse yet, Toronto ultimately paid some $10 million in a buyout
for Mourning to go away, because Zo was even louder in his Canadian discontent
than Carter.
The picks? Not much salvation for the Raps there, either. At No. 16 overall
in the 2005 draft, they selected _Joey Graham_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3942) . The other pick was later dealt to New York in
February 2006 to entice the Knicks to take on Jalen Rose's contract in exchange
for _Antonio Davis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2143) , with Isiah Thomas using it to draft _Renaldo Balkman_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4148) .
____________________________________
PS: Two trades that were narrowly spared inclusion on his list: New Orleans
holding out for no more than _Dale Davis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=404) , _Speedy Claxton_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3419) and cash for _Baron Davis_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3326) on Feb. 24, 2005; and _Chris Webber_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=1272) going from
Sacramento to Philadelphia one day earlier (along with _Matt Barnes_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3643) and _Michael Bradley_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3529) ) for _Kenny Thomas_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3345) , _Corliss Williamson_
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3015) and _Brian
Skinner_ (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3265) . Allan Bristow
resigned as the Hornets' front-office chief before the following season and
Geoff Petrie is still trying to rebuild Sacramento's kingdom almost three years
after Webber was exiled.
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