Reality Check

[Kestas]

Berry, Mark S wrote:
> ESPN's experts did a Q&A yesterday and only one person -- Marc Stein --
> picked the Celtics to represent the East in the Finals next season. And
> they all agreed that everyone from the East remained well below the top
> teams out West. If that's what we are, is it worth it?
>
>   
It may be group wisdom or groupthink. Did  any experts predict that the 
Piston or Heat would win it the season before they did? I don't know, 
but I doubt it.
> Obviously, there aren't many Celtics fans feeling this way now. You'd
> think we just won a championship when you see the reactions to this
> trade. 
>
> Personally, I learned a lesson from the Joe Johnson trade. I was
> completely in favor of that trade. I thought it put a team with a
> second-round ceiling in serious position for a run at the Eastern
> Conference title. The East was terrible, and I thought if we could get
> to the Finals, that would be great. Who knows what happens when you get
> there, right?
>   
I learned a lesson, too. But would you agree that Delk and Rogers are a 
far cry from KG? That the trio of KG-Allen-Pierce is a far cry from "Me 
and Paul"? That ECF team was a blip because it was a smoke-and-mirrors 
outfit created by Obie's and his staff's ability to extract  the most 
out of a mediocre collection of talent and equally mediocre talent on 
other Eastern teams. And then it got further dismantled by Thanksdad. 
> Well, that trade worked. They went six games in the ECF. They were
> legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference, but came up short. The
> Nets went to the Finals -- and were obliterated by the Lakers. They
> weren't contenders. It was a mirage created by the terrible conference.
> The best teams in the East would have been first-round outs in the West
> -- if they even made the playoffs. The Celtics got a little worse the
> next year and definitely were not contenders in the East. Meanwhile Joe
> Johnson became an All-Star and 25 ppg scorer. I'd trade that ECF trip
> for Joe Johnson in a heartbeat.
>
> That's how I see this ending. We'll have some fun, play some playoff
> games, come up short in the East, get a little worse every year as KG,
> Pierce and Allen age, and when we're no longer legitimate contenders
> even in the East -- probably no more than three years -- we'll be left
> watching Al Jefferson go for 20 and 10 for a decade. Will it be worth
> it?
>
>   
Well, it's a subjective thing. If what gives you most pleasure in 
basketball  is watching your favorite player average 20 and 10 for a 
decade, then you're following the wrong team. In fact, your statement 
suggests that you shouldn't be following a team at all, but rather 
individual favorite players. And I don't mean it disrespectfully.

The thing is, we could have had the opportunity to watch Al average 20 
and 10 here (if he indeed develops into a consistent 20/10 which is not 
unlikely, but neither is it a slam dunk). The thing is, that's all it 
likely would have been - the Celtics going nowhere - OK, may 
first-and-out, while Al is getting his numbers and his max paycheck. He 
doesn't have the athleticism or, most importantly, the personality to be 
much more than a civilized Zach Randolph or at best, an Elton Brand. 
There is a 0.0000000... chance that he reaches KG's level. If that's 
what you wanted - watching a nice post player putting up good numbers on 
a team that's treading water, I can understand that you are 
disappointed. However, the majority of fans disagree. They want the 
Celtics - as a team - to matter again, and other than Duncan, I don't 
see a player more capable of making it happen than KG. Even if it's only 
for three years.
Kestas


> Now ... Maybe Danny works some magic and turns this into a real team
> rather than a Gus Macker powerhouse. If he does that and they can
> legitimately contend for an NBA title, I'll re-evaluate. Only time will
> tell.
>
> Mark
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
> Behalf Of sabino
> Sent: Thursday, August 02, 2007 8:49 AM
> To: IGTC Celts List
> Subject: Reality Check
>
> Bob Ryan checked in with the following reality check:
>
>   
>>>> What's left on the Celtics' roster is by far the worst collection of
>>>>         
> proven talent in the NBA. Not one of the remaining 29 teams in Stern's
> world would even consider trading its fourth through 12th players for
> Boston's. There is no way Danny, Doc, Wyc, Steve, or Red's Ghost could
> look anyone in the eye and say otherwise. -- Ryan <<< 
>
> As presently constituted, I cannot but agree with what Ryan wrote.
> Objectively, there's not a team in the league that would trade their
> 4-12 guys (collectively) for ours.
>
> Let's face it, while they are all 3 still unquestionably great players,
> they are, nevertheless 3 guys in their 30s by season's start, and imo,
> we have at most a 3 year window  (I just don't buy the still going
> strong into their late 30s mantra), to reach the promised land.  Trade
> all the youth away save Perk and Rondo, and stack the roster with vets.
> We need vets all up and down the roster, especially come playoff time.
>
> I had a buddy call me for my reaction to the trade.  He knows I've been
> a C's fan for nearly 30 years.  I told him it was exciting, but oddly, I
> feel somewhat neutral about it.
>
> I feel like we just traded for something akin to the 87 team (best case)
> or 88 team (worst case), only without the glow and love for a team that
> had already been atop the league for 7 or 8 years (and won 3
> championships), and with whom we had already attached ourselves to so
> much. 
>
> These 3 stars we have now are in their 30s.  Each will decline to some
> varying degree every year from here on out.  It's just a question of how
> much and how fast.  It behooves them to win it all now, and that means
> surrounding them with the right supporting cast.  Ryan rightly points
> out that what's left right now is not that.
>
> Danny said he's not done, but considering we WILL be in luxury tax land,
> not done probably means Mutombo or PJ Brown.  We'll see.  I frankly
> think there should be no room at the inn for guys like Pruitt, Wallace,
> and Jackie Manuel.  Would prefer to trade the lot of them for veterans.
>
> I guess, having watched the real Big 3 decline, that's why my enthusiasm
> for this new version is not over the top, at least right now. I share
> Ryan's concerns about the anemic roster 3 thru 12.
>
> I'll root like hell for them, and I'll hope that Danny can land another
> quality big for the rotation (desperately needed), but bottom line is
> that I feel like we've bought a team akin to our 88 team, meaning, what
> you see from Garnett, Pierce, and Allen this year will be the best
> you'll see of them in Boston uniforms, but without the strong emotional
> attachment to the present that I had for that team, owing to their
> heroic feats and epic battles we'd already been fortunate enough to live
> through with them.
>
>
> I sure hope Danny, Wyc, et al still have enough bullets left to snag a
> decent vet wing and a decent vet big.  I'm uncomfortable with the
> prospect of Jackie Manuel or Brandon Wallace seeing many minutes backing
> up the wing spots (I simply cannot count on Tony Allen coming back
> strong this year, though he might), as I am uncomfortable with the
> prospect of seeing much of Davis or Powe seeing much backup time.
> Complete the job Danny, and get rid of these young guys for vets.
>
> The window's open in the Eastern conference, and we're at least in the
> conversation.  It's all about how Danny rounds out the roster now.
>
> Good luck, Danny.
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