Reality Check

[Berry, Mark S]

I used the '88 Celtics as a comparison also. I think that's dead on,
especially your point about not having the accumulated affection for
these guys. I'd also add that the late '80s - early '90s Celtics had DJ,
Reggie and other supporting players. They peaked with the ECF in '88,
then were a first-/second-round playoff out.

It's also interesting that the aging, declining Pistons are actually a
little younger than our new Celtics.

I completely agreed with Ryan's column. I understand going for it, but I
don't see this as a championship contender at all. Not with the roster
beyond the top three.

ESPN's experts did a Q&A yesterday and only one person -- Marc Stein --
picked the Celtics to represent the East in the Finals next season. And
they all agreed that everyone from the East remained well below the top
teams out West. If that's what we are, is it worth it?

Obviously, there aren't many Celtics fans feeling this way now. You'd
think we just won a championship when you see the reactions to this
trade. 

Personally, I learned a lesson from the Joe Johnson trade. I was
completely in favor of that trade. I thought it put a team with a
second-round ceiling in serious position for a run at the Eastern
Conference title. The East was terrible, and I thought if we could get
to the Finals, that would be great. Who knows what happens when you get
there, right?

Well, that trade worked. They went six games in the ECF. They were
legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference, but came up short. The
Nets went to the Finals -- and were obliterated by the Lakers. They
weren't contenders. It was a mirage created by the terrible conference.
The best teams in the East would have been first-round outs in the West
-- if they even made the playoffs. The Celtics got a little worse the
next year and definitely were not contenders in the East. Meanwhile Joe
Johnson became an All-Star and 25 ppg scorer. I'd trade that ECF trip
for Joe Johnson in a heartbeat.

That's how I see this ending. We'll have some fun, play some playoff
games, come up short in the East, get a little worse every year as KG,
Pierce and Allen age, and when we're no longer legitimate contenders
even in the East -- probably no more than three years -- we'll be left
watching Al Jefferson go for 20 and 10 for a decade. Will it be worth
it?

Now ... Maybe Danny works some magic and turns this into a real team
rather than a Gus Macker powerhouse. If he does that and they can
legitimately contend for an NBA title, I'll re-evaluate. Only time will
tell.

Mark

-----Original Message-----
From: celtics-bounces at igtc.com [mailto:celtics-bounces at igtc.com] On
Behalf Of sabino
Sent: Thursday, August 02, 2007 8:49 AM
To: IGTC Celts List
Subject: Reality Check

Bob Ryan checked in with the following reality check:

>>>What's left on the Celtics' roster is by far the worst collection of
proven talent in the NBA. Not one of the remaining 29 teams in Stern's
world would even consider trading its fourth through 12th players for
Boston's. There is no way Danny, Doc, Wyc, Steve, or Red's Ghost could
look anyone in the eye and say otherwise. -- Ryan <<< 

As presently constituted, I cannot but agree with what Ryan wrote.
Objectively, there's not a team in the league that would trade their
4-12 guys (collectively) for ours.

Let's face it, while they are all 3 still unquestionably great players,
they are, nevertheless 3 guys in their 30s by season's start, and imo,
we have at most a 3 year window  (I just don't buy the still going
strong into their late 30s mantra), to reach the promised land.  Trade
all the youth away save Perk and Rondo, and stack the roster with vets.
We need vets all up and down the roster, especially come playoff time.

I had a buddy call me for my reaction to the trade.  He knows I've been
a C's fan for nearly 30 years.  I told him it was exciting, but oddly, I
feel somewhat neutral about it.

I feel like we just traded for something akin to the 87 team (best case)
or 88 team (worst case), only without the glow and love for a team that
had already been atop the league for 7 or 8 years (and won 3
championships), and with whom we had already attached ourselves to so
much. 

These 3 stars we have now are in their 30s.  Each will decline to some
varying degree every year from here on out.  It's just a question of how
much and how fast.  It behooves them to win it all now, and that means
surrounding them with the right supporting cast.  Ryan rightly points
out that what's left right now is not that.

Danny said he's not done, but considering we WILL be in luxury tax land,
not done probably means Mutombo or PJ Brown.  We'll see.  I frankly
think there should be no room at the inn for guys like Pruitt, Wallace,
and Jackie Manuel.  Would prefer to trade the lot of them for veterans.

I guess, having watched the real Big 3 decline, that's why my enthusiasm
for this new version is not over the top, at least right now. I share
Ryan's concerns about the anemic roster 3 thru 12.

I'll root like hell for them, and I'll hope that Danny can land another
quality big for the rotation (desperately needed), but bottom line is
that I feel like we've bought a team akin to our 88 team, meaning, what
you see from Garnett, Pierce, and Allen this year will be the best
you'll see of them in Boston uniforms, but without the strong emotional
attachment to the present that I had for that team, owing to their
heroic feats and epic battles we'd already been fortunate enough to live
through with them.


I sure hope Danny, Wyc, et al still have enough bullets left to snag a
decent vet wing and a decent vet big.  I'm uncomfortable with the
prospect of Jackie Manuel or Brandon Wallace seeing many minutes backing
up the wing spots (I simply cannot count on Tony Allen coming back
strong this year, though he might), as I am uncomfortable with the
prospect of seeing much of Davis or Powe seeing much backup time.
Complete the job Danny, and get rid of these young guys for vets.

The window's open in the Eastern conference, and we're at least in the
conversation.  It's all about how Danny rounds out the roster now.

Good luck, Danny.
_______________________________________________
The Boston Celtics Mailing List
celtics at igtc.com
http://www.igtc.com/mailman/listinfo/celtics