games of chance and other goofy things to do with ping pong balls

[Snoopy the Celtics Beagle]

At 07:10 PM 4/16/2007, Kestas wrote:

>Snoopy the Celtics Beagle wrote:
>
> >Over on www.ESPN.com they have this electronic version of the NBA
> >Draft Lottery, which may or may not be as weighted by choice as the
> >real one.  But for fun, I played it 14 consecutive, once for each of
> >the first 14 picks.
> >
> >Boston got either the 1 or 2 pick only 5 out of 14 times, and most
> >often, the 2 pick.
> >
> >After all the caterwauling I've endured about people hoping for
> >losses to get this, the real thing had damn well BETTER be more
> >weighed for Boston than THAT.
> >
> >
>It's nice to see people on the list discovering probability,  even if by
>trial-and-error and small sample sizes.  What did you expect, that the
>Celtics would win 14 out of 14 times?

No, and that kind of came off a tad smartassed, don't you think? (I 
should know!)  I expected that a team with a weighted pick based on 
the 2nd worst record should hit 1 or 2 more often than a third of the 
time (that's approximate, that 5 is one third of 15 and I tried the 
thing 14 times, don't nitpick my already-bad beagle math).  Maybe 
somewhere closer to one half.

I discovered probability some time ago--which is WHY, Mr. Wizard, I 
was against the idea of pinning hopes on ping pong balls in the FIRST 
place!  Maybe next season, rationality will return once more and 
people will root for the C's to win a trip to the Playoffs, instead 
of to the Lottery.

>I sometimes wonder what kind of understanding of the Celtics' odds Ainge
>has - is he also going to be just shocked,  like Pitino, if the Celtics
>don't get #1 or #2 on May 22? I hope he's not  operating  under the
>assumption that Oden or Durant are in the bag.
>
> >Danny Ainge confirmed that Tommy Heinsohn will indeed represent the
> >C's at the draft dog and pony show.
> >
> >
>It's always comical to see grown men be so superstitious, but when the
>said men are  in charge of your beloved team, it's not funny anymore.
>But we're talking about Danny Ainge here, who has, shall we say,
>increased susceptibility to this sort of thing,  and Tommy Gun, who
>firmly believes that announcers can jinx free throw shooters.

I find it unlikely that Tommy seriously believes that Mike Gorman is 
practicing witchcraft on opposing free throw shooters.  But if you 
think he's that shallow, you are likely to be disappointed.

Most people have their superstitions, or, to use a less loaded term, 
their personal habits, ingrained over their lifetimes.  Look at 
anyone who served in the Army Infantry and they inevitably begin 
walking the same way they learned in the Army--it's become a 
habit.  Still others who keep their St. Christopher medallions, even 
though he was demoted by the Catholic Church a while back--a habit, a 
learned behavior.  I'd be willing to bet most people have them, based 
on things learned from older family members, teachers, etc.  Some are 
just more obvious than others, and having a Celtics Legend 
representing your team is at least as sensible as carrying a "lucky 
rabbit's foot" which didn't seem to do the poor bunny any damn good.  :)

I'm sorry if I seem caustic, it's been a long siege here at the doghouse.


> >Speaking of dog and pony shows, over on the CBW, I wrote up a tribute
> >to the 50th anniversary championship team, and worried that it wasn't
> >sufficient to honor the builders of the Celtics Dynasty.  Then I saw
> >the game and realized I'd put a LOT more time and effort into what I
> >did, than what the current C's organization did.  <snip>
> >
>Of course you did. That's why they can do such things to you and other
>hardcore fans and get away with it.

Oh, they haven't gotten away with it.  No, indeedy.

Snoopy the Celtics Beagle
Please visit the <http://www.celticsbeagle.net/>Celtics Beagle Website