Al Jefferson and scientific sampling

[Michael Gooen]

<<Based on the one live game i saw al play this year (last week's philly 
debacle) the player he most reminded me of was eddy curry.>>

Based on the one live game I saw Al play against a division opponent this
year (NJ on March 2), the player he most reminded me of was Kevin McHale. 
In his prime.  

I don't think Al will be able to get 32 points and 18 rebounds every
night.  But I do think he has made quantum leaps this season - offensively
and, to a lesser extent, defensively.  He is getting it.  I don't think Al
will be an all-time great (as McHale was pre-foot injury), but I do think
that if Al stays healthy (and a good job on that this year) he will be a
lot closer to that than to Eddy Curry.  Al will not carry this team, but
he is a cornerstone.  

I don't really care whether Al makes the all-star team, as long as he
continues to play like someone who should.  

As for the tanking debate - I agree with Snoopy that losing on purpose is
wrong, bad karma, and pretty illogical in that it doesn't influence draft
position, but only statistical probabilities at the margins.  That said, I
disagree with Snoopy in that:

-- I see no reason to risk further injury to Pierce or Jefferson simply
for the sake of racking up a "w" in what is now a lost season;

-- I will be perfectly happy if the few healthy players we have put forth
a yeoman effort against Milwaukee but lose and, as a result, the team's
statistical chances of getting Oden or Durant improve; and, most
importantly,

-- This draft will matter.  A lot.  If the Cs can get Greg Oden, #17 will
be a much more realistic near-term aspiration than if they wind up with
Joakim Noah.  (Oden showed me everything I needed to see in this
tournament.  He has special talent and special competitive fire.  He
belongs on the Celtics.  Joakim Noah, on the other hand, is the basketball
equivalent of Sanjaya Malakar, and not just because of his hair.)  I'm a
lot more interested in what happens on May 22 than I am in the results of
the remaining 9 games (unless one or more key Cs are injured).  

Michael Gooen


 
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