Dr. Chestnutt

[gene kirkpatrick]

While I've forgotten who Dr. Chestnutt is, I agree with some of the theory.  The Dallas Cowboys still draft with the "we're the only ones to see this guy's ability" approach--and most of their "gems" have been busts.  Ainge, I think, goes for the difference maker at times.  He also goes for West and Allen, but a little higher than others had them pegged.  He chose G Money when everyone from every team was on their feet shouting for him.  That was an obvious choice.  Even Jefferson was an obvious choice.  So, in all, while I'm sure there's some "I'm the guru here and I'm about to prove it once again" about him, he generally rates prospects about where others do.  If Rondo was #7 on his board, he still let him go by and didn't pick him up til #21--about where most boards had him.  
   
  Taking two irregular pgs at once is just hard to assimilate.  I think the difference maker approach and the choosing for need approach converged on these two guys and we have an undersized magician and a poor shooting speedster.  One of them needs to step up big to prove what Ainge sees in them.  Still, Ainge didn't see what others missed so much as he chose to select them despite their flaws.  Remember how we used to say that we needed to pick up a Jermaine O'Neal type after his first, struggling year--just find us a diamond that others haven't yet discovered?  Well?  Danny tried it Wednesday.  Most GMs run scared from controversial choices, some go for the home run every time, and then there's Isiah.  Cheers, Gene
   
  

Kestas <Kestutis.Kveraga.Adv04 at alum.dartmouth.org> wrote:
  The good Doc makes some astute points about Ainge's drafting, copied 
below. I think he's right on - to Ainge, it's all about finding the 
unobvious choice who exceeds expectation given his draft position. He's 
mostly done well with it (again, relative to the draft position), and 
it's fine when you're only holding low picks. But the whole strategy is 
highly questionable when you actually have a high pick. Ainge is like a 
Scrabble player who has the letters to put down a common seven-letter 
triple word that's acceptable to everyone, and earn 70+ points. 
Instead, to show how clever he is, he'd rather trade a few letters and 
go for an arcane fill-in-the-gaps word with archaic spelling that nets 
him 11 points and a missed turn, but may earn him a few grunts of 
admiration when it survives a challenge.

>From Dr. Chestnutt:
"The Rondo pick for next year's #1 was inexcusable and embarrassing. 
This is Ainge at his absolute worst – fixated on obscure talent he finds 
singular, unable to let it go. See Robert Swift, Marcus Banks, and 
Telfair. In the same embarrassing way that he seeks to prove his 
scouting ability by drafting under-heralded 2nd rounders who succeed as 
fringe NBA players (when everyone else figured they just plain sucked), 
he refuses to simply draft the best players available, instead harping 
on those semi-diamonds in the semi-rough that he's obsessed with 
polishing into stars. That's why he could never make a conventional pick 
like Randy Foye or Brandon Roy. They have no allure to his scouting 
heart, they are fully formed good players, and by picking them it 
marginalizes the only role as an executive he's comfortable with. His 
dream is to draft someone he finds under a rock who becomes the next 
LeBron James, allowing him to take sole credit for the team's 
turnaround. In this way he is the exact opposite of Larry Bird, who has 
contented himself with being a patient gardener, and for the most part 
has succeeded by not overreaching."

The whole thing can be found at:
http://www.celticsdoom.blogspot.com/

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