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Chad Ford on the draft
I know some of you hate this stuff. Feel free to ignore it.
This is Chad Ford's latest report on some NBA draft prospects. Some
interesting stuff. I'm scared to death of a high school point guard,
unless he's taken later in the draft.
Remember what I said yesterday about my dream being a young Tony Kukoc?
Well, right behind that would be a young, bigger Andei Kirilenko. Ford
says there's one of those in the draft. How good would a 6-11
Kirilenko-type player look playing PF for the C's? (Of course, in a
classic Ford flub, he says comparisons to Kirilenko "aren't hard to miss
... " Which would make them easy to miss, right? Why do I listen to
anything Chad Ford says???)
Mark
Livingston, Iguodala among those on the rise
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, February 27
The trading period is over, and so is the season for many of
the
teams now mired in the realties of the lottery cellar.
With little hope of turning things around this season, a
number of
GMs left for Europe this week, kicking off the start of the
serious
scouting season. With league executives and scouts spread
throughout
the world, teams are beginning to form their first draft
lists of
the season.
Who's hot and who's not? Insider pulled together five
trusted scouts
and two league executives to get a handle on which prospects
have
helped themselves and which haven't since we wrote about
them at the
start of the 2003-04 season.
Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor are still locked in a battle
for the
No. 1-rating in the draft pool, but after that it's pretty
wide
open. Here's a look at 10 players whose stock is on the
rise.
Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria, IL
The facts: 6-7, 180, HS senior
2003-04 stats: 18 ppg, 6 apg, 6 rpg
The skinny: When we wrote about Livingston a month ago,
the jury was still out on whether he'd actually declare for
the
draft. He had committed to Duke next season, and many scouts
believed Coach K had a pretty firm grip on him. Since then,
though,
the belief is Livingston will declare for the draft. If he
does,
scouts believe he'll be a high lottery pick based on his
play over
the past few months. The comparisons to Penny Hardaway may
scare
some away, but there's a distinct difference between the
two.
Hardaway had point-guard skills but never really wanted to
use them.
Livingston is much, much closer to the type of "pure" point
guard
NBA coaches love. There's no question he needs to get
stronger, but
right now that's the only real knock on his game. The fact
he
posseses an excellent shooting touch and can score off the
dribble
at will is really gravy. Add in the flair with which he
plays the
game, and many believe he'll be the first-ever high school
point
guard to make a successful jump to the pros.
Andre Iguodala, SG, Arizona
The facts: 6-6, 200, Sophomore
2003-04 stats: 12.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 5.4 apg
The skinny: Last time we checked in with Iguodala in early
December,
we were writing that he would be a late lottery pick. Since
then,
the triple-double threat's numbers have actually gone down a
bit,
but his stock continues to shoot through the roof. Several
scouts
believe he's a Scottie Pippen-type player who can play
multiple
positions, handle the ball in most offenses and lock down
anyone he
has to defend. The jumper still needs some work, but if the
draft
were held today, Iguodala could go in the top six. Pretty
amazing
for a guy who only a few scouts had on the radar screen
two-and-a-half months ago.
Andris Biedrins, F, Skonto Riga
The facts: 6-11, 240, 18 years old
The skinny: You knew Biedrins had arrived when he, along
with his
family, was making the rounds at the All-Star Game alongside
super
agent Bill Duffy. There has been an intense bidding war to
represent
Biedrins, but it now appears Duffy has pulled into the lead.
A
source close to Biedrins told Insider on Thursday that his
club,
Skonto Riga, has agreed to let him go to the NBA this year.
If
that's true, Biedrins is likely to be a top-10 pick on draft
night.
The comparisons to Andrei Kirilenko aren't hard to miss.
Both
players are great athletes and strong defenders, rebounders
and shot
blockers. Like Kirilenko, Biedrins is still a little raw
offensively
(his perimeter shooting needs a lot of work), but scouts are
drooling over the potential. The fact he's starting to put
up
impressive numbers (22 points and 11 boards the other night)
on the
senior team also will help his cause.
Devin Harris, PG, Wisconsin
The facts: 6-3, 185, Junior
2003-04 stats: 19.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.7 apg
The skinny: He's quickly catching up to his closest college
competition at the point, UConn's Ben Gordon. Both are
having good
seasons, but Gordon has been stuck playing two guard all
year,
raising questions among scouts about how quickly he'll adapt
to
running the point. Harris, on the other hand, appears to be
the
complete package. He has the size, speed, quickness,
explosiveness
and shooting stroke that scouts love. He has great floor
vision and
seems to understand how to run a team. In the words of one
scout,
"He has the perfect balance between a scoring point guard
and a more
traditional pure point. I love him." So do several other
scouts
Insider talked to. Harris is now looking like a late-lottery
to
mid-first-round pick.
Martynas Andriuskevicius, F/C, Zalgris (Lithuania)
The facts: 7-2, 250, 18 years old
The skinny: Watch this kid closely. Every year there's
someone who
comes out of nowhere, and this year it's Andriuskevicius.
Insider
was the first to write about him last June, when he played
in front
of NBA scouts and GMs at a junior tournament before the
Euroleague
Final Four, and again in January, when we reported scouts'
claims
that he was making drastic improvements. Since then, several
of our
most trusted scouts have been to Lithuania to see him play,
and
they're now saying Andriuskevicius might be the best young
international player in the draft. Period.
"The progress is unlike anything I've ever seen," one scout
told
Insider. "He's grown, he's added at least 20 pounds of
muscle and he
just looks unbelievable in practices."
The comparison are quickly being made to a younger,
healthier
Zydrunas Ilgauskas. From what we hear, Andriuskevicius has
grown
much stronger without losing his athleticism. He likes to
mix it up
in the middle, isn't afraid of contact and plays well with
his back
to the basket. In addition, he has soft hands, a very nice
outside
jumper and his passing skills are considered top notch. He's
under
the tutelage of basketball great Arvydas Sabonis, which may
explain
the rapid development. Now that he has signed with agent
Luciano
Capicchoini, there's a good chance he'll be in the draft
this year.
If he is, scouts tell me he'll project into the high lottery
once
teams get a look at him in workouts.
Kirk Snyder, SG, Nevada
The facts: 6-6, 225, Junior
2003-04 stats: 18.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg
The skinny: The best player in the WAC is starting to get a
lot of
attention from NBA scouts. "He's one of the most complete
guards
I've seen in a while," one NBA scout told Insider. "He does
it all.
He's strong, athletic, has great speed, shoots the ball
well,
rebounds and defends. He even has some playmaking ability
that's
pretty rare for guys like him." With so few good collegiate
players
in the draft, look for Snyder to be a mid- to
late-first-rounder if
he decides to declare.
Sebastian Telfair, PG, Brooklyn
The facts: 5-11, 180, HS Senior
2003-04 stats: 31 ppg, 8 apg
The skinny: Yes, Telfair has impressed enough scouts this
season to
earn serious consideration in the first round. But a few
published
reports calling him a lottery pick don't fit at all with
what
Insider is hearing from scouts. Telfair is a typical New
York point
guard. He's a great passer, can score on anyone and has a
real flair
to everything he does. He pushes the ball relentlessly and
always
controls the tempo of the game. The comparisons to cousin
Stephon
Marbury would be right on if he was a few inches taller.
Concerns
about Telfair's size, maturity and ability to make the
transition
from high school to the NBA have most scouts pleading with
the kid
to go to Louisville for at least two years. If he declares
(and all
signs indicate he will) his draft range will be wide open.
There's a
chance he could go as high as the mid-first round if he
finds the
right (or is it most-gullible?) NBA GM. It's more likely
he'll land
somewhere in the 20s if he declares now. However, with a
couple of
solid college seasons under his belt, he could go much
higher.
Maturity, not talent, is the issue right now. But when
you're
talking about point guards, that's a big issue.
Sasha Vujacic, G, Udine
The facts: 6-7, 210, 20 years old
The skinny: Vujacic impressed scouts with a good performance
at the
Chicago pre-draft camp last season. He's a 6-foot-7 combo
guard with
some definite point guard skills. He's had a great season
playing
two guard for Udine, but scouts feel he can make the
transition to
the point in the pros. He'll need to get stronger and speed
up his
game to succeed in the NBA, but several scouts see a young
Brent
Barry when watching him. He's now a lock for the first round
and
could go as high as 15 depending on how he looks in
workouts.
Luke Jackson, G/F, Oregon
The facts: 6-7, 220, Senior
2003-04 stats: 21.9 ppg, 7 rpg, 4.8 apg
The skinny: Scouts were skeptical at the start of the
season, but
Jackson has done a lot to ease their concerns. He has the
ability to
handle the ball, shoot on the perimeter and is increasingly
proving
to scouts he can create his own shot off the dribble with a
quicker-than-you'd-think first step. Defensively, he still
has
issues (his lateral quickness is a problem), and there's no
question
he needs to get stronger at the next level, but the
comparisons to
Mike Miller and Mike Dunleavy aren't totally absurd. With
zone
defenses taking over, his ability to shoot and create are
valuable
assets. Look for him to sneak into the late-first round.
Rafael Araujo, C, BYU
The facts: 6-11, 280, Senior
2003-04 stats: 18.4 ppg, 10.8 rpg
The skinny: Next to Emeka Okafor, he may be the second-best
collegiate big man in the country. Araujo won't ever be a
lottery
pick, because he lacks the explosiveness and athleticism to
be a
dominant center in the league. But he's such a good
rebounder and
scorer he will go much higher than many had him projected a
few
months ago. Depending on who actually enters the draft,
Araujo could
go anywhere in the 20s.
Draft Cards
Too hot? Telfair is among several top draft prospects who
may be a
little too hot right now. The lofty draft expectations some
are
putting on them don't really fit with the actual scouting
reports.
Take Jameer Nelson, for example. He's having an amazing
season at
St. Joseph's and certainly has solidified his status as a
first-round pick in this year's draft. But recent published
assertions that he's a top-10 pick? I haven't heard that
from one
scout. Not even close. Several scouts who didn't like him at
the
start of the season now believe he's an NBA player. But no
one is
saying he'll be a dominant player in the league. His lack of
size
(he measured 5-10 at the Chicago camp last summer),
quickness and a
so-so vertical matter to GMs. I'm not knocking Nelson. I
could see
him rising as high as the mid-first round because of the
lack of
other qualified college veterans in this draft. But top 10?
It just
doesn't mesh with the scouting reports I've read.
The recent flurry of press for Providence's Ryan Gomes is
another
example. The 6-foot-7 forward has been awesome for the
Friars and is
pretty close to a lock for the first round if he declares.
But I've
yet to find a scout who can figure out how his game
translates at
the pro level. The fact he's added a 3-point shot to his
highly
developed inside game has helped his stock. But what scouts
are now
focusing on is what position he'll defend in the pros. He's
not
quick enough to guard threes and not big enough or strong
enough to
guard NBA fours. That's going to be an issue. Gomes has been
one of
the best college players in the country this year, but
unless scouts
find a fit in the pros, his draft stock will suffer.
The waters also seem to be cooling for 7-foot-1
Russian-Canadian
high school star Ivan Chiriaev. While some scouts are still
in love
(and claiming he's a lottery pick), others have been turned
off in
recent visits. What's the issue? With the lack of
competition in
Canada, most scouts believe the kid is years away from
making an
impact on the NBA level. With the recent first-year
struggles of
very young international players like Nikoloz Tskitishvili
and Darko
Milicic, teams are taking a closer look at kids like this
and
factoring in whether or not they can afford to wait for them
to
develop.
Cooling off: There are a few players who seem to be cooling
off in
scouts' eyes after some pretty big preseason hype.
Start with UConn's Ben Gordon , who is having a good, but
not
spectacular, season. The fact Gordon has been stuck at the
two all
year has hurt his progress, in some scouts' minds.
"I think he has the skills to be a point in the pros," one
scout
told Insider. "But I don't know that. He's a two guard right
now,
plain and simple. If he's going to succeed in the NBA, he's
got to
be a one."
Jay Williams and Kirk Hinrich went through similar problems
their
last year in college and still were drafted high. But the
difference
for both players was scouts did get to see them run a team
at least
one full year in school. That's never happened for Gordon,
and some
scouts think he should stay in school one more year and take
over
the point. With Taliek Brown graduating, a spot will be open
for
Gordon to do just that, if he wants.
The issue may not kill Gordon come draft night as teams get
a closer
look in workouts, but it's clearly bothering some people at
the
moment.
Syracuse's Hakim Warrick is also suffering from expectations
that
were out of control at the start of the season. Warrick has
put up
nice numbers (19.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg) in Carmelo Anthony's
absence, but
scouts are still struggling to figure out his position in
the pros.
He's probably a three, based on his frame and lack of
strength, but
his shooting touch and ball handling are still very suspect.
For
Warrick to climb back into the lottery, he'll have to prove
to NBA
scouts at workouts that he's not Darius Miles without the
handle. If
he doesn't, he'll still be drafted, but he'll probably slip
into the
mid-first round.
Missouri's Rickey Paulding is another guy who appears to
have hit rock bottom. Many scouts thought Paulding had a
real shot
at the lottery if he turned in a good season at MU this
year. His
big game against Oklahoma State notwithstanding, his numbers
(15.9
ppg, 4.9 rpg on 39 percent shooting) are very disappointing
and
could cost him a shot at a guaranteed contract as a
first-round pick
come June. Some scouts believe Paulding will bounce back
once he
hits workouts because of his superior athleticism, but
others aren't
so sure. He's been accused of not playing hard all the time
-- the
kiss of death for most NBA scouts.
Texas A&M's Antoine Wright was another product of high
expectations
and poor execution. His 13.4 ppg on 36 percent shooting this
year
are a major disappointment after a stellar freshman year. At
least
he has the ability, after being hyped by some as a lottery
pick this
year, to go back to school another two years.
Head scratcher: Christjan Drejer's decision to dump the
Gators and
play professionally in Spain could come back to haunt him.
Let's be clear, though: His signing with Euroleague champs
F.C.
Barcelona wasn't the dastardly deed college scribes made it
out to
be. How many of you would be willing to work for free when
someone
was offering you millions to work at one of the top
organizations in
the world? Drejer made the same type of decision college
coaches
make almost every year. When does personal advancement and a
big fat
contract outweigh personal loyalty to a university? Drejer
came to
the same conclusion most college coaches do. He followed his
passion
and the money. If coaches are allowed to dump their
recruiting
classes at will, they should keep quiet when a player makes
the same
decision.
With that said, no one's clear how this will affect his
draft stock.
Drejer was seen by many scouts as potential mid-first-round
pick
before he left Florida. He's likely to get even less playing
time
for the Euroleague champs, who are stocked at just about
every
position. Playing against the likes of Dejan Bodiroga,
Gregor Fucka,
Anderson Varejao and Juan Carlos Navarro every day in
practice isn't
a bad consolation prize, however. Drejer is signed with
Barcelona
through the 2004-05 season, but he does have a buyout figure
should
he decide to enter the NBA draft.
This is probably a wait-and-see situation.
Splitter, Perovic out? Two top international big men --
Tiago
Splitter and Kosta Perovic -- may miss the 2004 draft, after
all.
Neither has an NBA buyout clause in his contract, and there
already
is evidence from their teams -- Tau Ceramica and Partizan,
respectively -- that they do not want to let the players out
of
their deals this season.
Perovic is the most pressing. Partizan owner Vlade Divac --
yes,
that Vlade Divac -- is telling NBA teams that, with the loss
of
Nenad Kristic to the Nets this summer (his agent confirms
Kristic
will play for the Nets next season), he doesn't want to give
up
Perovic for another year or two. Perovic wants to declare
for the
draft this year, and his representatives are trying to work
out a
compromise. If Vlade sticks to his guns, it's highly
unlikely a team
would be willing to draft Perovic in the lottery without
assurances
he'll be in the NBA next season.
Splitter's agent is still flirting with putting him in the
draft,
but limited playing time this year combined with no NBA
buyout have
them leaning toward keeping Splitter out of this year's mix.
Splitter drew rave reviews from scouts after a strong
performance on
the Brazilian national team last summer, but he has
struggled to
crack Tau's rotation this year.