Lots of interesting stuff from Insider

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Here's a nice grab-bag of hoops stuff. For those of us interested in the
mid-level free agent possibilities, he comes up with this list: #
Looking for some mid-level free agent bargains? Here's an early list of
who might sign with your team even if it's over the cap: Vlade Divac,
Gary Payton, Marcus Camby, Stromile Swift, Antonio McDyess, Brent Barry,
Carlos Arroyo, Gordan Giricek, Etan Thomas, Rodney White and Adonal
Foyle.



I could see the Celts being interested in Camby, Swift, McDyess (Ainge
has a connection), Barry, Arroyo, Thomas or Foyle.



Ford wasted no time wriggling even further up Joe Dumars' butt. For
months now all we've heard is how the Pistons and Dumars were DESPERATE
to dump contracts to get far enough under the cap to offer Okur more
than the mid-level exception, because other teams certainly would offer
more than that. Now that Dumars is being crowned the SMARTEST MAN IN THE
WORLD, Ford just casually suggests the Pistons might sign Okur to the
mid-level exception and use the Bird Rights to re-sign Rasheed. So
everything changed, because ... ???? Look, if Dumars can pull that off,
good for him. But I think if Dumars told Ford the sky was green, Ford
would make it his lead story in the next day's Insider.



Let's just see how this whole thing plays out in Detroit. They still
have Chauncey Billups at point guard. Are they better than they were
yesterday? Yes. They're one of the three favorites in the East. But they
still don't have their horse. Rasheed isn't a guy who can carry a team.
Rip Hamilton? Chauncey Billups? Ben Wallace? No. No. No. Maybe Darko
will be that guy. Maybe. Until then, I still think they're a team that
will struggle at the end of games because Chauncey will end up taking
too many shots.



Who do I think will come out of the East? I still think the Nets and
Pacers are the favorites. But I'm going to stop now because I'm sounding
like Josh (no offense, Josh).



Mark



What happens next in the NBA?




By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Thursday, February 19
Updated: February 20
9:34 AM ET



Eighteen hours after Joe Dumars pulled off the trade of the year, NBA
GMs were still picking themselves up off the floor.

'Unbelievable,' one GM told Insider.

'I've never seen a more lopsided deal in my career,' another moaned.

'They're morons,' claimed another executive referring to Danny Ainge and
Billy Knight. 'I can't believe they just did that.'

'Detroit just shifted the balance of power in the East,' another said.
'I think they just became the team to beat.'

The reverberations from the last blockbuster in what has been an
enormously busy trading season were still being felt as the night wore
on. Two Eastern Conference teams in particular, the Pistons and Knicks,
have fortified their teams while another East team, the Hawks, called it
quits.

What do you bet that Knight is hanging out with Howard Dean in Vermont
tonight? The Hawks, with all of their assets, will walk into the summer
with Jason Terry, two first-round picks and a large pile of rubble to
rebuild. Our guess is that Knight won't be there to see it.

What's gone down in the past few weeks will not only have ramifications
on the playoff race, but on what's shaping up to be one of the busiest
offseasons in NBA history.

Now that the hangover has subsided, here's the breakdown . . .

THE SEASON

The East is now wide open. With Ron Artest now out indefinitely, the
Nets surging under Lawrence Frank, the Hornets getting healthy and the
Pistons, Knicks and even the Bucks fortifying their positions, we should
be in for a real treat the last trimester of the season.



Joe Dumars has put Detroit in position to make a run at the Eastern
Conference title.


Much is going to depend on how quickly the Pistons, Knicks and Bucks can
integrate their new talent. The Pistons are six games back from the
conference-leading Pacers, but have a favorable schedule and a new
low-post man (Rasheed Wallace) to fix their only real weakness.

The Hornets are sitting nine games behind the Pacers, but should be much
stronger with Jamal Mashburn back in the lineup. The Bucks will also
improve with Keith Van Horn in the lineup, but again, there will be an
adjustment period.

The Knicks have been adjusting on the fly, but with the trade rumors now
over, I think they'll settle down and really start playing inspired
basketball.

Those six teams seem like a lock for the playoffs at the moment. Good
luck trying to pick which one comes out of the East. I think you could
make an argument for all six teams, though I'm leaning toward the
Pistons at this point.

The bottom is going to get ugly. The Magic didn't do enough to turn
their season around. Is it just me or does Tracy McGrady look likes he's
ready to kill someone? The Sixers are in the same boat with Allen
Iverson. If the Hawks win another game . . . I'll be stunned.

The West, on the other hand, did relatively little. The Jazz probably
helped preserve a .500 season by adding Gordan Giricek and Tom
Gugliotta. In my mind the playoff race there is almost over. There's a
pretty big gap between the eight seed, Denver, and the ninth seed,
Seattle. The Sonics had a chance to really improve but balked at several
interesting trade scenarios. The Blazers are coming together at the
right time, but I have a feeling that the dissension with Zach Randolph
isn't going away any time soon.

Chris Webber's return should have a major impact at the top of the
standings. The Kings have the best TEAM in the NBA right now, and
Webber's ability to fit in should make the transition pretty seamless.

The Lakers are getting healthy again, which makes them pretty dangerous,
but will they have played together long enough to make a difference?

Minnesota will have chemistry issues once Wally Szczerbiak and Michael
Olowokandi return. The Grizzlies probably missed an opportunity to
become more dominant by adding Erick Dampier, but I don't blame Jerry
West for balking at what the Warriors were asking for Damp. Jeff Van
Gundy still has to find a way to get along with Steve Francis, but our
guess is that they get that taken care of.

The bottom won't be nearly as bad in the West. The Suns, Clippers and
Warriors will jostle for last place, but with little remorse. Both the
Suns and Clippers will have windows to improve dramatically this summer.
The Warriors? Well . . . they feel at home at the bottom anyway.

THE FALL GUYS
There have already been a record number of coaches fired and it doesn't
look like the end will come soon.

The Hawks' Terry Stotts may have just been handed the worst team ever.
He has more tenure than any other coach in the East, but there's about a
99.9 percent chance that he'll be looking for work this summer. Billy
Knight should probably join him.

The Sonics' Nate McMillan has grown frustrated with the direction his
team is heading in. McMillan was holding out hope that GM Rick Sund
could move Vladimir Radmanovic, who has no business playing the four,
for a real power forward. Will the frustration get the better of him?
The players could revolt and Sund may have to send Nate packing.

The Magic insist that Johnny Davis is their man, but with the rest of
the Titanic about to sink in the next 30 or so games, it's hard to
believe anyone is going to survive in Orlando. GM John Gabriel is going
down with the ship, and unfortunately, Davis will probably be right
there with him.

The Celtics' John Carroll is as good as gone. The Celtics are getting
shakier by the day, and you know that Danny Ainge is itching to bring in
his guy to start putting together the pieces.

The Sixers will try to get permission from the Blazers to land Maurice
Cheeks this summer. Chris Ford is already in Allen Iverson's doghouse.
AI is so tough to move, it probably makes more sense to bring in a coach
who can co-exist with Allen. Billy King, on the other hand, probably
won't be around long enough to make that decision. The Sixers are a mess
and his inability to get something done by the trade deadline just
emphasizes it.

The Mavericks are the other team to watch. They have supersized
expectations and Mark Cuban won't hesitate to pull the plug on Don
Nelson if he feels there's a guy out there who can get more from his
team.

Who's going to replace all of those guys? Jim O'Brien, Doc Rivers and
even Byron Scott will probably land jobs this summer in the coaching
ranks. Possible replacement GMs? Pistons V.P. John Hammond (who turned
down the Portland job last summer), and Pacers assistant GM David Morway
are at the top of the class. The Pistons and Pacers have become models
of how to rebuild without blowing things up and both guys played a big
part in their team's success. Both will be getting long looks from a
couple of teams contemplating a change.

THE DRAFT

Start with the expansion draft set to be held on June 22. Every team is
allowed to protect only eight players, meaning that several teams are
going to have some tough choices. For teams that have eight or fewer
players on their roster, they must leave one person unprotected. Expect
a lot of side deals with the Bobcats as teams try to wiggle and get more
cap space.

You could definitely see a team like the Suns (with Jahidi White), the
Wizards (Christian Laettner) or the Pistons (with Elden Campbell) try to
move a player in the expansion draft to get more room. What is the
Bobcats' incentive? Promises of picks, players or both. They'll be in
the driver's seat and could really shake things up just days before the
draft.

The Celtics now have three first-round picks (their own, the Mavericks'
and the Pistons'). The Jazz have three (their own, the Rockets' and
likely the Knicks'). The Blazers have two (their own and Memphis'). They
now become the power brokers as the draft approaches. With so many young
players and international players in this year's draft, it makes little
sense to have all of those picks. Expect them to use the picks as
bargaining chips this summer.

This is a good year for bigs in the draft, if you don't mind them coming
so young. There will be Emeka Okafor (6-foot-9), Dwight Howard (6-11,
18-years-old), Pavel Podkolzine (7-4, 19 yrs), Kosta Perovic (7-2, 19
yrs), Andris Biedrins (7-0, 18 yrs), Peja Samardzski (7-0, 18 yrs), Ivan
Chiriaev (7-1, 18 yrs), LaMarcus Aldridge (6-11, 18 yrs.), Robert Swift
(7-1, 18 yrs), Rafael Araujo (6-11, 23), Ha Seung Jin (7-3, 18 yrs.) and
possibly big guys like Colorado's David Harrison (7-0) and Michigan
State's Paul Davis (6-11). That's good news for a lot of vertically
challenged teams in the lottery.

Expect the theme of this year's draft to center on the high school kids.
As many as eight of them could slip into the first round this year -- a
record. Scouts are also predicting another 10 international players to
make it into the first round. That really puts a squeeze on the college
players who could be looking at a record-low eight spots this year. What
does that mean? With no LeBron in the high school class of 2004, this is
a prospect draft, meaning no first-year impact players this year with
the possible exception of Arizona's Andre Iguodala, St. Joseph's Jameer
Nelson and possibly Duke's Luol Deng, if he puts his name in the draft.

THE SUMMER

Several GMs are now predicting that with the increased revenue the
league is seeing this year, the cap could raise to $46 or $47 million
next year. They also believe there will be no luxury tax for the 2004-05
season, which frees folks up significantly.

The players in free agency? Assuming there's a $46 million cap, the Jazz
will have roughly $28 million in cap room. The Hawks are looking at
around $20 million. The Nuggets will have between $17 million and $24
million depending on what they do with Marcus Camby. The Clippers will
have around $15 million. The Spurs should come in at around $12 million.
The Pistons are now looking at roughly $9 to $11 million in cap space.
The Suns could are also looking to be in that $9 to $11 million range.
And don't forget the Bobcats, who could have as much as $24 million
under the cap.

What does this mean? We'll probably see some intense bidding wars and
see higher contracts this year than in the past few offseasons. With so
much money out there, it's going to be a lot easier for free agents to
leave the nest and much tougher for teams to match their restricted free
agents.



Re-signing Mehmet Okur is the Pistons' top priority.
The Pistons may be the center of the universe again. All eyes will be on
Rasheed Wallace and Mehmet Okur in Detroit. Both are top-six free agents
this year.

Here's the bad news for those thinking that Thursday's trade means that
one of them is available. Pistons president Joe Dumars wants to re-sign
both Wallace and Okur this summer if they both get along over the next
30-plus games.

Sources claim that Wallace has already sent out feelers about staying in
Detroit, quashing the notion that he'll only play for the Knicks next
season. With the Pistons looking at between $9 and $11 million in cap
room, can Joe D get it done?

The Pistons probably have the cap space and flexibility to work
something out. If they can get Okur to sign for the mid-level exception
(expected to be around $5.1 to $5.5 this year) then they can use their
Bird Rights to get Wallace. If Okur is commanding more money on the open
market, the Pistons can always try to package a few more players to a
team with cap space to get far enough under to sign them both this
summer.

That's bad news for just about everyone in the East.

The Kobe Bryant situation is going to be a mess. If the trial isn't over
by the summer, does a team really risk throwing a huge contract his way
if he's headed off to jail? It could really slow things down, and who
has the patience to wait around for a long shot?

Other top free agents like Steve Nash, Antoine Walker and Emanuel
Ginobili are probably staying put. Kenyon Martin will probably be the
best guy who's actually available on July 1st. After that guys like
Quentin Richardson, Jamal Crawford and possibly Erick Dampier will be
the best available.

Looking for some mid-level free agent bargains? Here's an early list of
who might sign with your team even if it's over the cap: Vlade Divac,
Gary Payton, Marcus Camby, Stromile Swift, Antonio McDyess, Brent Barry,
Carlos Arroyo, Gordan Giricek, Etan Thomas, Rodney White and Adonal
Foyle.