re: D'ellasandro: Celtics 8th in east

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Josh,

You can't use playoff results from three years ago (Philly and Detroit) to
make conclusions on this season. You can't even use playoff results from a
year ago.

Remember, Indy had the better record than the Celts last season. The Pacers
were the higher seed. And that was with Isiah as coach. When these writers
are predicting order of finish, they're doing it for the season, not trying
to predict who will win a playoff series.

I think every expert will stick New Jersey, Detroit and Indiana in the top
three spots in the East, in some order. And that's probably accurate. Those
teams have the most talent and good coaching. The teams have been together a
few years. They're the class of the conference until someone proves
otherwise.

I put the Celtics in with several other teams chasing those 4-8 spots. Could
the Celts surprise and move into the top three? Maybe. So could several
other teams. Personally, I see it shaking out like this:

1.	Jersey

2.	Indiana

3.	Detroit

4.	Orlando

5.	Boston

6.	New Orleans

7.	Philly

8.	Chicago (a year away from really making a leap)


It really looks like it's going to be a scrum after the top three. The
Knicks could be much better. Same with the Heat. And Toronto, if Carter
stays healthy. And Milwaukee will be better than many think. It's a deep
conference with a lot of evenly matched teams. There will be nights when the
Celtics look unstoppable and nights when they look like they'll never make a
basket. If everything breaks right, they could be significantly better. If
things start to go wrong - the point guards don't pan out, Baker relapses,
Lafrentz bombs - then it could get ugly. And if Pierce misses any time,
forget it. Orlando may be the only team in the NBA as dependant on its best
player as the Celtics are on Pierce. 

But it's hard to say the Celtics are the second best team in the conference.
They were the sixth best team a year ago. Have they made up that much ground
in one offseason? Why would you say so? Remember, every team in the league
believes it is improved. Why are the Celtics four spots better?

I love the new team and I'm even more excited about the future, with Perkins
promising to make a huge impact maybe as soon as next season. But we have to
be realistic about this season. The East is much better. The Celtics could
be a better team but still finish with about the same record and in the same
position in the conference.

Mark

P.S. Sign me up for the Battie-Alvin Williams-Wilcox deal. But I can't
believe Toronto would do it. Anyway, this team still could use a young,
impact power forward and swingman. Banks (maybe), Pierce and Perkins are
three-fifths of the future.  Lafrentz will be a big part, and maybe Kedrick.
But they could use a couple of potential studs at those positions.