D'Alessandro: Celtics 8th In The East

[wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Seems reasonable....

NBA Eastern Conference Preview 

Sunday, October 26, 2003


BY DAVE D'ALESSANDRO 
New Jersey Star-Ledger Staff 

1. 

NETS (Victory range: 53-58) 

ROTATION: C Alonzo Mourning, PF Kenyon Martin, SF Richard Jefferson, SG Kerry Kittles, PG Jason Kidd, C Jason Collins, SG Lucious Harris, PG Zoran Planinic, SF Rodney Rogers, C Aaron Williams. 

ANALYSIS: What's not to like? They have taken a two-time conference champ and added one of the great centers of this or any other generation, plugged in a promising big guard who has shown an eagerness to learn from the best in the business, and one of the league's most formidable forward tandems hasn't even entered its prime yet. The only question is how the coach will handle a very competitive minutes crunch up front, but that will be a great problem to have if Zo enjoys good health and can play with his usual zeal. If that is the case, they'll be playing in June again. 

2. 

DETROIT PISTONS (Victory range: 53-58) 

ROTATION: C Mehmet Okur, PF Ben Wallace, SF Tayshaun Prince, SG Richard Hamilton, PG Chauncey Billups, SF Corliss Williamson, PF Darko Milicic, SG Bob Sura, PG Chucky Atkins, C Elden Campbell, SF Darvin Ham. 

ANALYSIS: Larry Brown arrives to provide some vitality, personality and re-direction to what had been a colorless team, and some offense wouldn't hurt, either. There is a great core here, with a superb balance of youth and experience, but they won't be ready to fulfill their title aspirations until the young bigs -- Milicic and Okur -- are allowed to grow up a bit. Until that time, Brown will honor Rick Carlisle's blueprint and win with defense, while trying to get along with Billups, a gifted point guard who may have to adjust to his new coach's pass-first vision of that position. Hamilton is poised to have an All-Star season. 

3. 

INDIANA PACERS (Victory range: 49-54) 

ROTATION: C Scot Pollard, PF Jermaine O'Neal, SF Ron Artest, SG Reggie Miller, PG Kenny Anderson, SF Al Harrington, PF Austin Croshere, PG Jamaal Tinsley, C Jeff Foster, SF Jonathan Bender. 

ANALYSIS: The Isiah Thomas era came and went, and now the Pacers will hope that it was just a bad dream, but there was much to learn from it. Nobody ever doubted their talent, except perhaps at the point guard position, but Anderson has arrived to lend that position some stability. That term is rarely applied to defender supreme Ron Artest, who just ain't hooked up right, leading some in the organization to endorse a trade. It's up to Rick Carlisle now to navigate the treacherous waves Artest will undoubtedly stir, while keeping O'Neal (a Thomas devotee) happy and Harrington healthy. 

4. 

CHICAGO BULLS (Victory range: 44-49) 

ROTATION: C Eddy Curry, PF Tyson Chandler, SF Donyell Marshall, SG Jalen Rose, PG Jamal Crawford, SF Scottie Pippen, PF Marcus Fizer, PG Kirk Hinrich, SG Kendall Gill, SF Eddie Robinson. 

ANALYSIS: Building blocks under the age of 23 better than Curry, Chandler and Crawford don't come together very often. And if there are two veterans better equipped than Pippen and Gill to teach them how to be professionals, we've yet to see it. The quick, explosive Curry is a handful, and if he maintains the progress he showed over the last 20 games last year (19.5 ppg, 61-percent shooting), the Bulls will have the best center in the East. Bottom line: It's a young team with a bright future and a coach (Bill Cartwright) with the right temperament to manage it. His biggest tasks will be getting Rose to see that he isn't the only option anymore, and getting them to compete when they leave the United Center, as they were nothing but road kill (3-38) last season. 

5. 

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (Victory range: 43-48) 

ROTATION: C Jamaal Magloire, PF P.J. Brown, SF Jamal Mashburn, SG David Wesley, PG Baron Davis, PG Darrell Armstrong, PF Robert Traylor, SF George Lynch, C Sean Rooks, SF Stacey Augmon. 

ANALYSIS: They've taken a perennial second-round team and handed it over to a guy who had a 49-190 record in his last gig, but any failure on the Hornets' part probably won't be Tim Floyd's fault. It just seems they're always breaking down physically at the wrong time -- witness the recent medical histories of their two stars, Davis and Mashburn -- and three of their top six guys (Wesley, Brown, Armstrong) are all on the wrong side of 33. They're already off to a rough start: Courtney Alexander is out for the season, and Mashburn hasn't played in three weeks because of a knee problem. 

6. 

ORLANDO MAGIC (Victory range: 40-45) 

ROTATION: C Juwan Howard, PF Drew Gooden, SF Gordan Giricek, SG Tracy McGrady, PG Tyronn Lue, PF Pat Garrity, C Andrew DeClercq, SF Donnell Harvey, PG Reece Gaines, C Steven Hunter. 

ANALYSIS: Once again, they've made all the right moves, plugging in two very useful components (Howard, Harvey), and little of it will matter, because it was a team that was supposed to be built around Grant Hill. He'll probably miss the entire season again, which means McGrady will be overtaxed, putting further pressure on his aching body (lately it's been his knee, and, no kidding, pleurisy). But he is among the game's most spectacular showmen, and he can make the playoffs with a cast of walk-ons. This cast has improved -- Gooden might even be an All-Star someday -- but it's still one of the smallest teams in the league. 

7. 

PHILADELPHIA 76ers (Victory range: 39-44) 

ROTATION: C Derrick Coleman, PF Kenny Thomas, SF Glenn Robinson, SG Allen Iverson, PG Eric Snow, SG Aaron McKie, SF Greg Buckner, SF Monty Williams, PF Marc Jackson, C Samuel Dalembert, PG John Salmons. 

ANALYSIS: The biggest change is on the sideline, where Randy Ayers replaces Larry Brown, on the assumption that he'll be able to keep Iverson comfortable on the job as the game's most mercurial superstar. Robinson is the new audition for second-fiddle, and while he'll have his share of 30-point nights, playing with Iverson basically means you're a bit player. The biggest problem, as always, is their lack of a stud up front. This has always been a well-coached team with smart role players surrounding a single star, but some of the pieces are yellowing around the edges, and their replacements don't exactly stir any passions. 

8. 

BOSTON CELTICS (Victory range: 39-44) 

ROTATION: C Raef LaFrentz, PF Vin Baker, SF Eric Williams, SG Paul Pierce, PG Marcus Banks, SF Jiri Welsch, SF Walter McCarty, C Tony Battie, SF Kedrick Brown, PG Mike James. 

ANALYSIS: The divorce from Antoine Walker will probably be beneficial in the long run, because they weren't getting past the Nets anytime soon with him around. But it also means they'll have to take a step back this season, because this team was all about T'wan -- it was his ball, his offense, and his willingness to share it with Pierce that turned the Celtics into a potent team in the post-Pitino era. Now they'll have to run a point guard offense (with a rookie, no less) and hope their defense gets back to its 01-02 level, when it was arguably the league's best. LaFrentz isn't perfect, but he can help in that regard by blocking shots, and he'll hit a higher percentage of 3-pointers than Antoine ever did. 

9. 

KNICKS (Victory range: 39-44) 

ROTATION: C Dikembe Mutombo, PF Antonio McDyess, SF Keith Van Horn, SG Allan Houston, PG Charlie Ward, PF Kurt Thomas, C Michael Doleac, SG Shandon Anderson, PG Howard Eisley, PF Clarence Weatherspoon. 

ANALYSIS: All eyes on No. 34, again. If McDyess returns at a reasonable date -- say, Thanksgiving -- their frontcourt will be as powerful as any in the East. If his return is delayed, or if another part breaks down, they're going to have to scramble to get near .500 despite the additional size. There are other question marks, chiefly Van Horn's ability to deal with a new position and a hostile fan base. And any injury to Houston would be devastating. But by the same token, any injury to a star in their neighborhood -- namely, McGrady, Pierce, or Iverson -- and they can easily crash the postseason party. 

10. 

TORONTO RAPTORS (Victory range: 38-43) 

ROTATION: C Antonio Davis, PF Chris Bosh, SF Morris Peterson, SG Vince Carter, PG Alvin Williams, PF Jerome Williams, SG Michael Curry, PF Jerome Moiso, SF Lamond Murray, PG Milt Palacio. 

ANALYSIS: Start with this: Davis and J. Williams don't even want to be there. And if Carter breaks down again and starts hearing cracks about his character again, he'll probably re-examine his own allegiance. Two years ago, they had one of the most promising young teams in the league. Then Lenny Wilkens arrived, they threw money around with Knicks-like dereliction (remember the $17 million to Hakeem?) and Carter's body fell apart. The future now depends on coach Kevin O'Neill's demand that Carter be accountable, and he certainly looked more like the old Vince in Puerto Rico. 

11. 

WASHINGTON WIZARDS (Victory range: 37-42) 

ROTATION: C Brendan Haywood, PF Kwame Brown, SG Jared Jeffries, SG Jerry Stackhouse, PG Gilbert Arenas, SG Larry Hughes, PF Christian Laettner, PG Chris Whitney, PF Etan Thomas, SF Jarvis Hayes, SG Juan Dixon, C Jahidi White. 

ANALYSIS: If it's a change of direction they wanted, they'll have it. The point guard is new, and Arenas is probably the best they've had since Rod Strickland. The coaching staff is new, as is the motion system Eddie Jordan has implemented. The GM is new, and Ernie Grunfeld one of the best in the business. About the only thing that remains the same is the army of young strong bodies up front, but they hope that Kwame Brown's attitude is different, as his confidence was shattered by the old regime. He and Arenas will have to carry the team in the foreseeable future, as the Wiz aren't letting on how much time Stackhouse will miss after knee surgery. 

12. 

MIAMI HEAT (Victory range: 29-34) 

ROTATION: C Brian Grant, PF Lamar Odom, SF Caron Butler, SG Eddie Jones, PG Dwyane Wade, PF Malik Allen, PG Rafer Alston, PF Samaki Walker, SF Rasual Butler, C Cherokee Parks. 

ANALYSIS: This is Miami's most athletic team in recent memory -- the drafting of Wade made that a fact -- but the flip side is that this Heat team makes last season's Knicks look behemoth. For the foreseeable future, it'll play a power forward at center, a swingman at power forward, and its most dynamic player (Caron Butler) has missed the entire preseason. Then, when Butler returns, there's the small matter of deciding how it's going to play, which is still a mystery. The Heat still defends as well as anybody, but whether anyone is going to get excited by it remains to be seen: Free admission for the final preseason game drew 2,500 fans. 

13. 

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (Victory range: 29-34) 

ROTATION: C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, PF Carlos Boozer, SF LeBron James, SG Ricky Davis, PG Kevin Ollie, SF Darius Miles, PG Dajuan Wagner, SF Ira Newble, C Chris Mihm. 

ANALYSIS: James will start at small forward, but the long-range plan is to let him run the team. It's up to Paul Silas to determine when that time is right, but ultimately, LBJ will be a human triple-double. The rest of them are engaged in a year-long audition to join his supporting cast. There are some good parts to start with: Ilgauskas, when healthy, is a handful on the box, and Davis and Miles are adequate running mates for LeBron's flying circus. Like last season, Wagner will start from behind again, because he needs knee surgery. Unlike last season, the Cavs are going to sting a lot of good teams. 

14. 

ATLANTA HAWKS (Victory range: 20-25) 

ROTATION: C Theo Ratliff, PF Shareef Abdur-Rahim, SF Stephen Jackson, SG Jason Terry, PG Jacque Vaughn, PF Alan Henderson, SG Dion Glover, C Nazr Mohammed, SF Chris Crawford, PG Dan Dickau. 

ANALYSIS: They finally got their ownership deal squared away, which was enough to keep Jason Terry signed, or he'd be in Utah by now. But the new owners didn't show up in time to prevent the trade of their leading scorer, Glenn Robinson, or do something to replace the draft pick they didn't have last summer. The point guard situation is a mess. In other words, unless Ratliff and Abdur-Rahim don't play out of their minds -- and that hasn't happened lately -- this is destined to be the weakest, least-interesting, and lowest-drawing team in the league. 

15. 

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (Victory range: 18-23) 

ROTATION: C Joel Przybilla, PF Joe Smith, SF Tim Thomas, SG Desmond Mason, PG T.J. Ford, SG Michael Redd, SG Erick Strickland, SF Toni Kukoc, PF Marcus Haislip, PF Brian Skinner, C Dan Gadzuric. 

ANALYSIS: This is a plan? Trade away your remaining stars, fire the coach and eat his $7 million salary, turn down a $170 million offer from Michael Jordan to buy the team, let your GM skip town, buy off spare parts like Anthony Mason and Jason Caffey, and then trot out a team that a disinterested market will barely recognize? The one thing that Herb Kohl did right was giving Terry Porter his first coaching job. He is a charismatic, optimistic kind of guy, and boy, will he have to be. The light had better go on for Jersey guy Tim Thomas: After six mostly disappointing seasons, he'll get 20 shots per game with this group. 

***** 

ONCE AROUND THE CONFERENCE 

MVP -- Jason Kidd, Nets. 

Best five -- Kidd, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O'Neal, Ben Wallace, Allen Iverson. 

Five on the rise -- Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Drew Gooden, Mehmet Okur, Jamaal Magloire. 

Impact rookies -- LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Dwyane Wade. 

Best addition -- Alonzo Mourning, Nets. 

Next best additions -- Lamar Odom (Miami), Juwan Howard (Orlando), Kenny Anderson (Indiana). 

Worst addition -- Elden Campbell, Detroit. 

Best coach -- Larry Brown, Detroit. 

Toughest job -- Randy Ayers. 

Best GM -- Rod Thorn, Nets. 

Most underrated -- Kenyon Martin, Nets. 

Most overrated -- Jalen Rose, Chicago. 

First coach fired -- Terry Stotts, Atlanta. 

Keep your eye on -- Antonio McDyess, Knicks. 

Five on the hot seat -- Vince Carter, Ron Artest, Tim Thomas, LeBron James, Kwame Brown.