Celts-Mavs Trade Analysis & Season Projections

[Tammo29@xxxxxxx]

Celts-Mavs Trade Analysis & Season Projections 




Joe Schaller



Trade spells trouble: As a player for player trade I would initially say Dal
las got the better end of Raef LaFrentz for Antoine Walker and Tony Delk 
however outside of contract considerations this is one of those deals that doesn't 
make sense for either club.

First of all let's make it clear that Walker is vastly overrated as a guy who 
shot 38% from the field, 61% free throws and 32% 3-pointers. LaFrentz is of 
equal value to Walker and this would be a fine trade for Boston if they didn't 
include Delk. Delk is coming off a career season as a sixth man guard with 
excellent ballhandling skills, streaky shooting and overall nearly as valuable as 
Walker. The loss of Delk puts a lot of pressure on Mike James and rookie 
Marcus Banks creating a very suspect guard rotation for the Celts.

Walker won't be a problem for the Mavs if he is used judiciously off the 
bench as a streak shooter. He does not have the ballhandling skills as claimed by 
many-- Walker has always been turnover prone and now he joins the top 
ballhandling team in NBA history. He may be a tough defender however he is a poor 
rebounder. I rank him as the weakest front line player on the Mavs and if he plays 
starters minutes he will obviously be cutting into the playing time of better 
players such as Jamison, Nowitzki, Najera and even Fortson. If he doesn't get 
his marquise minutes you can count on him pouting and becoming a disruptive 
influence.

Years ago I implored the Celts to trade Walker and keep Dan Fortson. Fortson 
never developed into the allstar I envisioned however it's odd they are 
together again and in retrospect the Celts may have been better off trading Antoine 
long ago.

What amazes me about Mark Cuban and the Mavs is their ability to squirm out 
of numerous dubious acquisitions and signings of overrated and overpaid players 
by finding other members of the NBA Old Boys Club more than willing to 
accomodate them in a deal.

Bottom Line: Delk adds valuable depth to the guard rotation. As for Walker, 
adding one of the league's perennial leaders in missed shots to the top 
shooting club seems kind of stupid. On my season projections below I have actually 
adjusted the Mavs downward since the trade.
Boston's weakness at point guard drops them out of the playoffs.



'03-'04 SEASON WINS PROJECTIONS

My season wins projections are calculated by estimating playing time (how 
many minutes will Kobe play?) for 8 to 10 players from each team and multiplying 
out with each players' projected TPR to obtain an average team TPR. The team 
TPR is compared to the average NBA team TPR to give an estimated wins figure. 
Several factors are used when projecting a players' TPR, primarily their 
previous TPR history.

Upon return from my vacation I will put my predictions up against those of 
Las Vegas' Imperial Palace.

Denver may surprise in the West with Marcus Camby's talents being overlooked 
by many. Boston and Philadelphia should be disappointments in the East and San 
Antonio will miss the presence of David Robinson.


'03-'04 West Wins Projection

61___Los Angeles Lakers

58___Dallas Mavericks

57___Sacramento Kings

54.5_San Antonio Spurs

53.5_Minnesota T-Wolves

45___Portland Trail Blazers

44.5_Phoenix Suns

43___Houston Rockets

36.5_Memphis Grizzlies

36___Seattle Sonics

33___Denver Nuggets

30___Los Angeles Clippers

27.5_Golden State Warriors

26.5_Utah Jazz


'03-'04 East Wins Projections

52.5_New Jersey Nets

50___Detroit Pistons

46___Orlando Magic

44.5_New Orleans Hornets

44___Indiana Pacers

43.5_Philadelphia 76ers

39___Toronto Raptors

38.5_Chicago Bulls

37.5_Boston Celtics

36.5_New York Knicks

34.5_Miami Heat

32___Atlanta Hawks

31___Washington Wizards

27___Milwaukee Bucks

26.5_Cleveland Cavaliers