Josh's latest from Hoopsworld

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Josh provides a pretty nice breakdown of the possible rotations. It really
is going to be interesting to see how it shakes out. Even if EWill or Delk
is traded, which seems somewhat likely, there still will be a minutes crunch
that will leave someone out. I'm surprised no one said much about the
articles the other day where Obie planted Delk firmly in the discussion as
far as starting point guard. One thing is very clear-Ainge wants Delk far
away from the point guard spot and has tried to force Obie's hand in that
regard. If Ainge sees Delk getting minutes at point guard, you can bet he'll
do his best to ship him out and bring in a shooting guard who can't play
point guard. (Of course, I'd say that describes Delk perfectly, but I'm not
the coach... )

Anyway, Banks and James are going to dominate the PG minutes. Pierce will be
one swingman. The battle between EWill, Jumaine Jones, Walter, Kedrick and
Delk is going to be interesting. I throw Delk in there because Pierce always
sees some time at small forward. Anyway, those five guys are fighting for
roughly 56 minutes (assuming Pierce plays about 40 minutes). Barring a
trade, my guess is EWill, Jones and Delk split it roughly evenly and Kedrick
and Walter are situational guys, with Walter also seeing some time backing
up Antoine.

I see no reason to think Antoine will play any small forward this season
when it hasn't happened in the first seven years of his career. Therefore, I
think he'll eat up 40 minutes per game at power forward. Baker may get the
scraps, but that remains to be seen. Battie and Blount will get the center
minutes, with Vin getting scraps there also. Maybe Vin earns more time as
the season goes along. We'll see.

That's the way I see it, barring trades. Basically a nine-man rotation, with
Walter, Kedrick and Vin settling for leftovers. You just can't play more
than that. Hunter and Perkins will ride the pine. It's frustrating that
they're trying to turn Hunter into a small forward, when there's such a glut
there already. They spend seven seasons playing an undersized guy at power
forward 40 minutes per game, then when they get another undersized guy with
more athleticism and strength, they immediately shift him to the perimeter.
Whatever. My hope is he turns into a Corliss Williamson type who faces up
and overpowers small forwards with one or two quick dribbles. 

But all of the roster stuff really is secondary to the question of style of
play. I'm pleased they're talking about running more, but I'm not at all
convinced they're going to be good at it. They've been a terrible running
team for years-even when Kenny was here. How many 3-on-1 breaks have they
blown in recent years? So we'll see. 

The bigger question, and one no one in the Boston media seems to be asking,
is the halfcourt offense. It wasn't the utter lack of a running game that
killed the Celtics last season, it was the utter lack of movement in the
halfcourt offense. And I've seen nothing to suggest that is going to change.
Every quote is "we want to run more to get some easy baskets, but the
offense still is going to run through Antoine and Paul." Running is fine,
but the area that needs a desperate change is the halfcourt offense. And
that's actually EASIER to change. I'm skeptical about the running game
because you have to rebound to run. This team has been a terrible rebounding
team and has done nothing to change that in the offseason. So I expect them
to be a terrible rebounding team again.

BUT... they could be a better halfcourt team with a little more motion and
penetration. Yet I haven't heard much talk about this. That's why I have
ugly visions of the "my turn/your turn" offense again this season with the
only difference being it's Mike James and Marcus Banks standing around the
elbow instead of Tony Delk or JR Bremer. I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

Anyway, this is long and I'm sure most on the list remain entirely
preoccupied by the Red Sox. (Not really a Sox fan, although I always root
for them in the postseason while my Reds play golf and complain about
payroll disparity-by the way, I've been there with Scott Williamson, and you
have my sympathies... ) The link and copy-and-paste of Josh's column is
below.

Mark
http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_5526.shtml
<http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_5526.shtml> 

A week of training camp has gone by, and we've all read the same news. Parse
it as you will, it all amounts to the same sandy handful of generalizations:
*	Young players are ready to prove themselves, but might struggle to
adjust to the NBA. 
*	The Celtics will try to run more this season. 
*	Vin Baker is off the sauce, and ready to contribute -- maybe 
*	Paul and Antoine are glad to finally have some help -- maybe. 
				 
Other than the Vin Baker theme, these bullet points might be as applicable
to the beginning of any of the last four or five seasons. That doesn't mean
that I don't believe them; but there is still so little to go on that I have
a hard time divining what to make of it. Do you?
Looking past the headlines, however, it seems to me that there the major
question going into this season is the most basic decision any coach has to
make: roles and minutes. The Celtics, as an organization, seem determined to
reinvent themselves, getting away from the way they played last year. To do
it, they have to make some hard decisions about roles. Take Vin Baker. Even
if healthy, Baker is not an uptempo player. He needs to set up, get fed the
ball just right, and take his shots while everybody else watches. That's his
game. You can kick to him for a mid range jumper off a pick and roll, like
Robert Parish used to do; but he's not going to fill any lanes. That's not
the kind of player he is, and both he and Jim O'Brien admitted as much in
the Boston Globe earlier this week. So what are the Celtics going to do with
him? One solution would be to use him in a half-court team. Have a running
team consisting of 
Battie
Walker
Kedrick Brown
Paul Pierce
Marcus Banks
and a halfcourt team consisting of
Mark Blount
Vin Baker
Eric Williams
Paul Pierce
Mike James / Tony Delk
occasionally using Walker as the anchor, and subbing in Delk or the
off-guard Ainge is said to be searching for for Pierce.
Or let's assume that both the starters and the subs are played in the same
basic offense. What will their roles be? Let's think it through.
Center: Tony Battie, Vin Baker, Mark Blount, Kendrick Perkins
Analysis: Battie, if healthy, is the best the Celtics have at the position
-- the most mobile, their defensive anchor, and a competent offensive
center, especially given how rarely he gets his number called. Baker is the
team's best low-post bet if he is sober and healthy, but you're not going to
get the same level of defense. It would be much better to hide him at power
forward, especially since Mark Blount, a better defender all-around, is
incapable of playing any other position. Finally, there is Kendrick Perkins,
the Celtics' center of the future. Despite what the team says, it will only
do Perkins limited good to lift weights and play in practice. He needs to
get some exposure to real-game situations, and he needs to get it regularly.
Therefore, I would like to see Baker removed from the equation entirely.
Power Forward: Antoine Walker, Vin Baker, Brandon Hunter, Jumaine Jones 
Analysis: Antoine has dominated this position to the tune of 42 minutes a
game. You see where that has gotten us. Forget the three-pointers: the thing
to remember about Antoine at power forward is that his greatest strength is
his ability to face the basket with a live dribble. There isn't another
power forward in the league that can stay with him twenty feet from the
basket, which is why he likes being there so much. Unfortunately, that keeps
him from passing and rebounding much. Baker likewise can score on most power
forwards in the league, and will even block a shot or two with his long arms
-- which is more than Walker can say (although Walker is a much better
defender when puts his mind to it.) Neither Walker nor Baker is a tough guy,
though, which is why Brandon Hunter was such an important addition to the
team. All the talk about Hunter is about his playing at three -- and indeed,
his power and ruggedness would be devastating to most threes in the league,
who he can overpower. (It would also allow him to play alongside Walker,
helping to make up the rebounding and toughness deficiency in the
frontcourt.) Still, you have to consider Hunter part of the power forward
mix. Likewise, the ultra-athletic Jumaine Jones creates matchup problems
with his shooting and athleticism, and would introduce a level of speed and
verticality at the position which the other three guys can only dream of. No
improvement is possible at this position, however, if Baker, Hunter, and
Jones are all competing for the same six minutes a game.
Small Forward: Eric Williams, Kedrick Brown, Walter McCarty, Brandon Hunter,
Jumaine Jones
Analysis: Here's the crux of the Celtics' roster problems. There's a good
chance that Willaims will get traded before the deadline, or even before the
start of the season: he's in the last year of his contract, no longer young,
and plays a position at which the Celtics are overstocked. Even if Ainge
does move low-pitched Eric, though, it still leaves a glut of threes, and
that's without the precious minutes Antoine Walker needs to play at the
position. Bracketing out Williams' well-known skills for the moment, what do
we have? In Brown, McCarty, and Jones, three players who can defend very
well, shoot the ball a little bit, and hardly pass at all; and a rugged
rebounder in Brandon Hunter. All four are suited for an uptempo game; all
are comparble in terms of talent, pretty much. There remains an outside
chance that, with plentiful minutes, a more judicious use by the coach, and
a healthy ankle, Kedrick Brown will emerge as a quality starter comparable
to Richard Jefferson or Corey Maggette. Failing that, he and Jones will
compete for the same minutes, since they the closest in body type and game.
Shooting Guard: Paul Pierce, Tony Delk
Analysis: Pierce owns this position, and Delk is his sub, unless Ainge makes
a trade. 
Point Guard: Marcus Banks, Mike James
Analysis. Banks wills start; James will back him up. The team could probably
use a veteran PG to tutor both guys, and to fill in when one gets hurt -- a
graybeard like Mark Jackson would make a ton of sense. Otherwise, Delk will
fill in.
 
If these roster issues can get settled, it will go a long way to determining
what kind of team the Celtics field this year. Once again, the make-or-break
figure in the whole organization is neither Pierce, nor Walker, nor even
Danny Ainge, but the stolid and inscrutable Jim O'Brien. He needs to make
the right decisions, and without them the Celtics' ship will founder.