problems and solutions

[Kestas <kkv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hmm, I think Orlando's losing streak is in danger of being snapped 
tomorrow night.

Since I'm one of those who want to run Obie out of town (and wanted 
Toine gone; Kenny, not so ardently, though), I gotta ask again, will 10 
straight do it? If so, I say, Paul, go for it. Enter that brooding, 
"underwater" mode of yours that helped finish Pitino.

Test question:
who's next in this sequence: Rivers, Cartwright,....?

There's a variety of opinions on who/what's to blame for the current sad 
state of the Celtics. Some blame Pierce, others Obie, yet others blame 
the overall lack of talent on the team or, more specifically,  the 
dearth of outside shooters.

Let's consider Pierce first. I think some allege that the team's losing 
because he's playing selfishly and not sharing the ball. Yet the stats 
don't really bear this out - he's averaging 4.6 assists in wins, and 5.9 
in losses. Well, perhaps he's not scoring enough for them to win? No, 
that's not it either - 20.2 ppg in wins, 21.9 in losses. Rebounding? 
Nope, it's 6.2 in wins, 7.4 in losses. Steals? Not that either - .8 in 
wins, 1.9 in losses. Shooting %? Now we're on to something - 42% in 
wins, 37% in losses. Does this explain everything? I doubt it.

So, is it the overall lack of talent? The amount of talent can be tricky 
to judge, because how it is utilized can skew the way it looks quite a 
bit.  But in all honesty, do we have less talent than Utah or Denver? 
Are we younger and less experienced? I'm too lazy to attempt a 
principled analysis of the roster, but I suspect the answer is no. Utah 
and Denver play in the West and have winning records. 'Nuff said.

Is it the lack of outside shooters? I think we're getting warm here. If 
Pierce is not hitting and Lafrentz is unavailable, we have no one who 
can reliably hit an outside shot. The shooting percentages of our guards 
are horrid. Yet the basic game plan is to run a play for Pierce, or 
stand around and let Pierce create something, occasionally dumping it 
into Baker. If that fails, someone heaves an outside shot. The long 
rebounds are almost invariably collected by the other team, who then run 
it down our throat. Tommy got it half-right in the postgame remarks last 
night, saying that this team can only win by running. I'd also add that 
it needs motion offense in the worst way to get easier baskets for 
everyone.

So, why don't we have it yet? The newness excuse doesn't really fly, 
given what other teams with new players and less talent have achieved. I 
just don't think the majority of our players know how to play that kind 
of basketball. I play in lunchtime pickup games that have much better 
ball movement and motion offense. The less individual one-on-one ability 
the players have, and the more physically shot they are, the better, 
because it discourages the one-on-all crap and encourages team basketball.

Most of the players on the Celtics grew up playing individualistic, 
playground basketball. In fact, they are still playing it. Other than 
Jiri Welsch and Lafrentz, team basketball doesn't come naturally to 
these guys. It's no coincidence that the teams that play the best brand 
of motion-oriented, team basketball also have the highest number of 
European players on them.

Now, are our guys hopeless? I don't think so. In the preseason games 
after the Walker trade, and in the first couple of regular-season games, 
we saw ball movement. The coach has to continually encourage it with a 
group like this, not just in words, but in actions. If he calls a play 
for Pierce on nearly every possession, the other guys get used to 
standing around waiting for a last-option kickout. I suspect Obie's idea 
of ball movement is either running a play for Pierce and hoping he 
creates something if the play breaks down or, at best, passing it around 
the perimeter to get a better three-point attempt. The addition of 
Lafrentz and more minutes for Welsch will help, but, I suspect, not enough.

Every team has to get easy shots to win, and we're just not getting a 
lot of them. Many things contribute to that - the defense that gives up 
rebounding position because of all the fronting, big guys who are not 
great rebounders to begin with, the constant calling of plays and 
general overcoaching, and unfamiliarity with basketball as a team game 
for a lot of guys.

It's not all Obie's fault, but he doesn't help the situation in the 
least. I talked about his overcoaching. He also UNDERcoaches when a 
mold-breaking move needs to be made. He's a terrible game coach who 
rigidly relies on the rules and statistics he has memorized to guide him 
instead of reacting instinctively. "Our plus-minus without Paul in the 
game is positive; he has 4 fouls and it's early in the 3rd.  Solution: 
he must sit for the rest of the quarter no matter what is happening on 
the floor".  Meanwhile the Knicks are making a huge run and   our guys 
can't score at all because there's no designated scorer in the game and 
no motion offense to create shots for the other guys. Now, stats can be 
very useful, but you have to be flexible, pay attention to what's 
happening on the court, and try to do something about it.

The bottom line is, if Danny wants to see a motion-oriented offense, he 
needs either to get a coach who can teach it to our guys, and/or get 
some players who know how to play that type of basketball. We had a team 
built around the strengths of Toine and Paul, and the coach to serve 
them; we can't play the same brand of basketball with the personnel
we have now and hope to win a lot. Obie say he has no answers for the 
current state of affairs and I believe him. It's time to get a coach who 
does.
Kestas