"Playoff Casualties"- by the numbers

[Tammo29@xxxxxxx]

May 29, 2003
Playoff Casualties 
Joe Schaller
    

NBA Playoff Format Sucks! Once again after an exciting series to determine 
the NBA champ we must sit thru the anticlimactic aftermath.
Meanwhile the media pundits are raving about the New Jersey Nets as if 
they've accomplished something great. I don't know about you but watching the 
pathetic East has been a painful experience. I can only imagine Minnesota or 
Portland ripping thru Milwaukee, Boston, Detroit and yes, even New Jersey, with 
plaudits showered on Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace, Zach Randolph and all the 
rising role players. Yet instead they are considered first round failures in need 
of drastic measures for upgrade.
I then imagine the Nets being ripped to shreds in the West as first round 
fodder for the big boys, leaving the pundits to ponder "Why didn't those 
offseason moves pan out? Should they have kept Van Horn? Can Kidd ever carry them past 
the first round?".
For the knowledgable NBA fan, what should be the thrilling conclusion to one 
of the greatest NBA seasons of all time has been another huge letdown. As it 
is, the underwhelming Nets benefit from a free pass and confidence which only 
Eastern opponents can provide leaving them just one injury away from a 
championship.


Let's look at the eliminated teams and examine their playoff performance and 
future prospects.

TPR scale: 120+ superstar, 100+ allstar, 80+ starter, 65+ bench, 60 = min 
wage


Detroit: Who's to blame? Similar to last year Coach Carlisle insisted on 
sticking with his defensive specialists Cliff Robinson (58) and Michael Curry (40) 
at the expense of an impotent offense. Corliss Williamson (52) also 
struggled, continuing his decline after last seasons breakthru. Robinson had 2 games in 
the Nets series with no rebounds and fewer total playoff rebounds than point 
guard Chauncey Billups (100). Replacing Robinson with a physical inside 
presence is a must.
Who's to Praise?: Despite Jon Barry's (121) outstanding performance he 
managed only ten minutes a game. This is mind boggling. Ben Wallace (139) was 
outstanding and is dire need of assistance on the front line. Rookies Tayshaun 
Prince (94) and Mehmet Okur (80) have bright futures.


Lakers: Blame? Robert Horry (60) and Brian Shaw (50) did not contribute 
however it was Kobe Bryant (120) who may have disappointed the most. He certainly 
had moments of brilliance with some awesome fourth quarter runs however his 
scoring inconsistency and poor ballhandling were not what I expect from one of 
the league's top 5 players.
Success? Once again Shaquille O'Neal (175) carried the team.


Sacramento: Blame? Mike Bibby (84) became a star based solely on his playoff 
performance versus the Lakers last year. This year he approached allstar 
status during the regular season however did not perform at that same level during 
the playoffs. He now sits on my overrated list.
Wasn't Keon Clark (58) supposed to be an insurance policy for Chris Webber 
(126)? Clark's playoffs performance was horrible.
Success? Peja Stojakovic (130), Bobby Jackson (128), Vlade Divac (109) and 
Webber had strong playoff performances however once Webber went down I believe 
the Kings allowed that to effect their confidence. This is not a mentally tough 
team.


Philadelphia: Blame? Sure, Keith Van Horn (48) was horrible, however as I've 
explained before Allen Iverson (114) is neither the superstar nor clutch 
player he is made out to be. He had one great season yet I believe as long as he 
takes so many shots and misses so many any team he is on is doomed. Larry Brown 
knows this too.
Success? Derek Coleman (93) and Kenny Thomas (81) were respectable however 
this club does not even make the playoffs in the West and was even lucky to get 
past the first round.


Boston: Blame? Antoine Walker (70) showed his true value and on any 
successful team would be used as a streak shooting sixth man. Eric Willaims (44) was 
outstanding last year in the playoffs and continued it thru the regular season 
as one of the Most Improved only to fall terribly flat in this years playoffs. 
J R Bremer's (30) amazing rookie year ended with a whimper.
Success? Paul Pierce (139) played to superstar expectations however Tony Delk 
(117) was the guy responsible for the first round success as he made up for 
Walker's failures. Marc Blount (96) was outstanding in limited minutes. The 
club's only hope is for Danny Ainge to somehow miracly cure Vin Baker. It won't 
happen and the Celts are thus doomed for years of mediocrity.


Portland: Blame? No blame here. Despite key injuries the club performed well 
and would likely have mopped the floor with the sad sacks of the East. Paul 
Allen would forget all about the "disfunctional" thing.
Success?: Damon Stoudamire (122) and Zach Randolph (121) picked up the slack 
but why did Arvydas Sabonis (179) spend so much time riding pine?


Minnesota: Blame? Wally Szczerbiak (52) fortified his overrated status. Rasha 
Nesterovic (42), Anthony Peeler (46) and Kendall Gill (49) were of little 
help. The brunt of the blame falls on the Lakers though.
Success? Similar to Portland the Wolves would have kicked butt in the 
pathetic East. Kevin Garnett (173) was dominant and Troy Hudson (123) took another 
giant leap after making my regular season Most Improved list. Marc Jackson (93) 
decided to show up also.


Utah: Blame? Nobody rose to the occasion however it was Karl Malone (79), 
similar to last year, who failed the most.


Phoenix: Blame? Joe Johnson (-3) was a disaster but it was the streaky 
Stephon Marbury (43) who proved his overrated status.


Milwaukee: Blame? With all the offensive weapons at his disposal, Gary Payton 
(92) shot the ball too much. Anthony Mason (13) has become a handicap.
Success? Toni Kukoc (123) played like Bullish days of old.


Indiana: Blame? The Pacers were the biggest disappointment of the playoffs 
with lots of blame. Reggie Miller (38) and Ron Mercer (35) eliminated any 
perimeter threat. Al Harrington (-9) made Isiah Thomas look bad with his decision to 
leave Austin Croshere on the bench after a career year. A little offense, 
please!
Success?: Jermaine O'Neal (136) carried the load however he and the entire 
club had a tendency all season to blow fourth quarter leads with what can only 
be described as "choke". So much talent, what a shame.


Orlando: Blame? Outside of Tracy McGrady (141) everyone was pathetic save 
Drew Gooden (90). This is likely the worst team in the NBA without Scatman 
McGrady.


New Orleans: Blame? A good series from David Wesley (42) puts the Hornets 
into the next round.


In the playoffs it's all about defense- isn't it?
It's become a cliche- defense wins. How many times have we heard the pundits 
count out the Mavs due to their anemic defense? Yet the Dallas Mavericks seem 
to be proving that offense wins games and that strategy and "situational 
stops" can get you by on the defensive end when it comes to crunch time.
In fact, the ability or inability to score under fourth quarter pressure has 
become the deciding factor in many playoff games. Rick Carlisle's over 
emphasis of defense resulted in missed scoring opportunities as Jon Barry rode the 
bench. Do you think Barry would love to play with the Mavs? His talent is 
currently being wasted.

Likewise, Isiah Thomas persisted with Al Harrington, a "better" defender, 
while Austin Croshere's offensive arsenal was barely utilized. It was lack of 
offense which led to these teams demise, particulary in fourth quarter crunch 
time.

Even below average defenders can do a pretty decent job when they focus and 
intensify at crunch time, however it doesn't work that way on the other end 
where marginal scorers are more likely to choke under pressure.

I say defense wins games for quartes 1 to 3 and composed offense wins in the 
4th. This can also be applied to a seven game series where the seventh game 
becomes a 48 minute fourth quarter.


Total Performance Ratings (The Total 12)

Scoring

Scoring Efficiency

Ballhandling

Rebounding

Disruptive Defense

One on one Defense

Team Defense

Team Game Pace

Positional Norms

Schedule Strength

Projected Improvement or Decline

Teams Wins Adjustment
Ratings indicate productivity per minute played. See my feature "The TPR 
Formula" for more information.



Joe Schaller
    
    
TAM