Draft expert cites drop-off at No. 5

[Celtic4Hire@xxxxxxx]

With all the parity after the first four picks, it seems it is better to sit 
where we are and take our chances with the two picks as is. However, this 
doesn't preclude our need to get true team improvement by getting a impact player 
through the mid-level exception....

DJessen33

Posted on Sun, May. 25, 2003   
 
Draft expert cites drop-off at No. 5
'Not a lot of great players,' he says
BY ISRAEL GUTIERREZ
igutierrez@herald.com

It's difficult to fathom that with the fifth pick the Miami Heat would select 
a fourth-tier quality player.

But that's the way draft expert Chris Monter sees this draft shaping up.

''To me there is a drop-off after the first pick, another drop-off after the 
third pick and another drop-off after the fourth pick,'' Monter said. ``That's 
why I think there would be a good propensity for [the Heat] making a trade 
because there is such a drop-off.''

On his website, collegebasketballnews.com, Monter's mock draft has LeBron 
James going No. 1 to the Cavaliers, Darko Milicic second to Detroit, Carmelo 
Anthony third to the Nuggets and Chris Bosh fourth to the Raptors.

If the Heat does make a selection at No. 5, Monter's prediction is 7-0 center 
Chris Kaman from Central Michigan. But Monter is not especially excited about 
any of the players available at No. 5.

''That's the problem with this draft, that you have a lot of good players but 
not a lot of great players,'' Monter said. ``Part of that is because there 
are so many kids coming out early when they're not ready.''

Among those good-but-not-great players, Kaman is one of the few true centers 
at 7-0, 255, and he averaged an impressive 22.4 points and 12.0 rebounds last 
season.

But no one seems quite sure if Kaman is as good as Dallas' Raef LaFrentz or 
as bad as Dallas' Evan Eshmeyer.

''Unfortunately, the stereotype of the white center isn't very good when you 
look at Big Country [Bryant Reeves], Eric Montross, Joel Przybilla,'' Monter 
said. ``But I think Kaman is a little bit different. He runs the floor very 
well; he's a very good athlete. He needs to get stronger, but he's been working 
out with Tim Grover, Michael Jordan's trainer.

``The [Mid-American] is an underrated conference, I think, because they've 
had some good players come out of there when you look at Gary Trent, Ron Harper, 
Wally Szczerbiak and Bonzi Wells. But not really any true centers, and Kaman 
didn't face true centers on a night-in, night-out basis.''

Kaman's size isn't a question, but it certainly is for another possible No. 5 
pick, Texas point guard T.J. Ford. Besides the fact Ford shot just 40 percent 
from the field at Texas (most players' shooting percentages drop once they 
enter the NBA), Ford is listed at 5-10 and some believe he is actually 5-9.

Monter, though, says a team in the lottery will be convinced to overlook his 
size and concentrate on Ford's strengths.

''He was the quickest player in college basketball this year, and he'll be 
one of the quickest players in the NBA,'' Monter said. ``I thought he improved 
quite a bit offensively, but the outside shooting is the big question mark. He 
does a good job of getting to the free-throw line, but if I'm an NBA team I'm 
going to have to be convinced he's going to make the outside shots so I'm 
going to lay off him and not let him penetrate.

``But I think the NBA is also a little bit of a copycat, trend-following-type 
league.

So the fact that a player like (5-5 guard) Earl Boykins has found the right 
situation in Golden State, his success level and quickness has maybe made teams 
a little more receptive to a player who is under 6-foot.''

Outside of Kaman and Ford, it's difficult for even Monter to picture another 
player worthy of the No. 5 pick.

Players such as 7-0 Polish forward Maciej Lampe, 6-4 Marquette guard Dwayne 
Wade, 6-7 Georgia forward Jarvis Hayes, 6-6 French guard Mickael Pietrus, 6-8 
Georgetown forward Mike Sweetney and 6-9 Greek center Sofoklis Schortsanitis 
are all in that next group of players, but all have obvious flaws.

Lampe might need to remain in Europe another year or two to mature; Hayes is 
not a standout shooting guard; Pietrus is drawing severely mixed reviews.

Wade, Sweetney and Schortsanitis, meanwhile, are all undersized.

Monter said there could be a couple gems in the mid-to-late lottery, but 
those players might not truly shine for some time.

''I think this is going to be a kind of wait-and-see draft where you might 
not even know for the next three years who the best players are out of this 
draft,'' he said.

In fact, Monter believes the Heat just as easily could nab an impact player 
at No. 33 as it can at No. 5.

''You're going to get a pretty good player at 33. Maybe [St. Joseph's point 
guard] Jameer Nelson if he's still in or [Mississippi State forward] Mario 
Austin, who's probably going to slip a little bit because he's undersized [6-8],'' 
Monter said. ``I think a couple Big Ten kids could still be there like a Rick 
Rickert [of Minnesota] or maybe a Brian Cook [of Illinois].

``Because of everybody's excitement about taking a young player and drafting 
on potential, you might have a player like a Carlos Boozer or a Michael Redd 
who might be better than a lot of the players that go in the first round.''