Draft Reality or Fantasy?

[PScottman@xxxxxxx]

Okay, so I went off in my last post - sorry I'm just a little fed up with people thinking we can get something for nothing -call me a basketball conservative I guess. On the draft my thoughts are pretty simple (I'm sorry if someone posted something similar already - I don't mean to plaigarize - this is how I view this thing):

Picks #1 through 5 - You expect to draft franchise players here. About 60% will pan out after five years - some sooner, some later. You have about a 20-30% wash-out/bust rate with 10% becoming serviceable players, but never the stars they were projected to be.

Picks #6-10 - You expect to draft mid-level stars here (full-time starters that could start or play significant minutes for most teams). About 10% become franchise players. 60% or so become serviceable players with about the same washout rate, but with less franchise potential.

Picks #11-20 - This is where the hoping starts. After about pick ten suddenly the Star rate drops to about 5% or less and the serviceable rate drops to around 30%. The washout rate explodes to around 50 or 60%. 

Picks #20 and above - A total and complete crap shoot. Washout rate is near 80% with the remaining 20% being serviceable or end of bench players.  Star rate is less then 1%. 

That's how I see the draft and with the younger ages in the draft the washout numbers will INCREASE at lower pick numbers, but yet GMs still seem to value the gambling of picks over established talent.  I think I'd take the opposite tack - the Larry Brown method for success if you will. Trade the picks before you have a chance to screw them up - although instead of taking the long contracts as he often does I'd look more for short term signed vets to add to my flexibility in trades and free agency.