Celtics ready to play odds

["Stephen Beauregard" <sb@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Celtics ready to play odds

After top three, uncertainty rules

By Shira Springer, Globe Staff, 6/26/2003

ryce Drew. Roshown McLeod. Ron Artest. Dion Glover. Hedo Turkoglu. Speedy
Claxton. Kirk Haston. Brendan Haywood. Jiri Welsh. Kareem Rush. Those are the
players selected at the No. 16 and No. 20 spots in the last five NBA drafts.
Some play important roles for their teams. One no longer plays in the league.
One has gained notoriety for his temper and praise for his defense. One
recently earned an NBA ring.



Danny Ainge, the Celtics director of basketball operations, may have the odds
figured just right. After looking at the history of players drafted at No. 16
and No. 20, he said, ''about one out of every three players becomes a
successful NBA player.''

Some of the Celtics' success with their two first-round selections depends
upon luck, some on the thoroughness of their scouting, and some on instinct.
Once teams get past the top three picks, there is a lot of upside and
uncertainty in this year's draft.

When asked who the Celtics were choosing in tonight's draft, Ainge said,
''That's a good one. I don't know. I guess it depends who's there. I'm going
to take the best player. There's always a best player available. I don't see a
lot of separation after the first few picks. It just depends on what your
needs are and what your goals are.

''[You have to figure out] whether you're going to draft a European player you
can keep overseas, a high school player you want to develop, a college player
that can come in and contribute maybe in a lesser role right away. Those are
all questions that I think all teams have to decide in that second tier of
players.''

The top tier, or more accurately the undisputed top three players in the
draft, were determined long ago. Tonight's proceedings at Madison Square
Garden will essentially be the long-awaited coronation of LeBron James. The
high school phenom out of Akron, Ohio, already has a $90 million shoe contract
with Nike and a half-hour ESPN ''The Life'' devoted to him. Detroit will go
European with Darko Milicic, the first of many many foreigners to be selected
in the first round. Next, Denver will choose Carmelo Anthony out of Syracuse.
Then it gets interesting.

Executives and coaches around the league have had plenty of time to learn the
pronunciations of various European players, from Maciej Lampe to Zarko
Cabarkapa, to try and figure out which team has a commitment to which player,
and to devise a method for comparing college seniors with recent high school
graduates. But there is no exact science to the draft, particularly when it
comes to the second tier in 2003.

''We all kind of know, within neighborhoods, where guys will go,'' said
Celtics general manager Chris Wallace. ''There will be a wild card here and
there. The first thing is you've got to come out of the draft with talent.
''The draft is the one free shot you get in this game. We can't predict what
the 15 teams ahead of us do, but at that point [No. 16], it's our shot.
There's no restrictions. And you need talent for two reasons. One, to play for
you. Secondly, to add bulk to your war chest so assets are available for
future deals.''

The Celtics believe they have a good idea about which prospects have the
talent they need. Aleksandar Pavlovic, Marcus Banks, Cabarkapa, David West,
Kendrick Perkins, and Troy Bell have all been mentioned as candidates for the
No. 16 and No. 20 spot. Don't even try to predict what Boston will do with the
No. 56 pick it recently acquired from Sacramento. Only one thing is certain
about the players the Celtics will select: They will require patience.

''With so many young players coming into the draft process, you can't really
evaluate it right now,'' said Ainge. ''In last year's draft, there were four
players out of 29 players taken [in the first round] that contributed in their
first year.

''There's a lot of similarities in the evaluations, but I think that there's a
lot of differences in the conclusions. If you were to get a scouting report
from Jerry West and Rick Sund and Don Nelson and Danny Ainge and we wrote the
strengths and weaknesses of the players, I think that they would probably be
very, very similar, but then applying that and how this player can help your
situation is where things differ. So, the conclusion that you draw based upon
the personnel that you might have on your team I think is where there's
differences.''

Ainge and the rest of the Celtics' brain trust have come to their conclusions.
It's time to find out what they can gain from a draft the new director of
basketball operations calls a ''steppingstone.''

Thanks,

Steve
sb@xxxxxxxxxxxx

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