Fw: Insider top 16 Homegrown in the draft (not so long)

["Josh Ozersky" <jozersky1@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Steven Wallace" <swallace4922@attbi.com>
Newsgroups: alt.sports.basketball.nba.boston-celtics
Sent: Thursday, June 05, 2003 6:12 PM
Subject: Insider top 16 Homegrown in the draft (not so long)


> Attributed to the author
>
> NBA Draft: And then there were 16 ...
> By Chad Ford
> NBA Insider
> Thursday, May 15
> Updated: May 15
> 11:16 AM ET
>
>
> "As many as 13 international players in the first round?" a well respected
> NBA scout asked me in a phone call on Wednesday. "You've got a bad case of
> Euro fever, man. Do you understand that means that only 16 college players
> would go in round one? That's crazy man."
>
>
> Perhaps. Given that the most international players ever selected in the
> first round is six, 13 does seem a bit excessive. That is, until you
> actually start breaking the draft down on paper.
>
> That's exactly what I did with several top NBA scouts and executives last
> weekend in Barcelona. While most of them expressed reservations about the
> number of international players who actually would be selected in the
first
> round, after humoring me with a little exercise, they struggled to come up
> with an alternative.
>
> That's why Europe is literally teeming with NBA scouts and GMs right now.
> Thanks to increased exposure, better scouting or just a bumper crop of
> international studs -- some draft records will be shattered this year.
>
> Don't believe me?
>
> Let's take a look at this year's college crop first.
>
> Here are the locks to go in Round 1:
>
> LeBron James (No. 1 overall)
> Carmelo Anthony (high lottery)
> Chris Bosh (high lottery)
> T.J. Ford (mid lottery)
> Chris Kaman (mid lottery)
> Mike Sweetney (lottery)
> Dwyane Wade (late lottery to mid first round)
> Kirk Hinrich (late lottery to mid first round)
> Luke Ridnour (late lottery to mid first round)
> Jarvis Hayes (mid first round)
> David West (mid to late first round)
> Reece Gaines (mid to late first round)
>
>
> That's 12 college players who probably can rest easy on draft night. None
of
> these players is expected to pull out of the draft.
>
> A few more have a very good shot of landing in the first round.
>
> Nick Collison (mid to late first round)
> Mario Austin (late first round)
> Mo Williams (late first round)
>
>
> That brings the total up to 15 U.S. players who should make the
first-round
> cut.
>
> Now for the tough part. There are as many as 16 international players
right
> now who are considered candidates for the first round. Ten of them appear
to
> be locks if they keep their names in the draft (remember, international
> players under age 22 are considered "underclassmen" by the NBA and must
> follow the same process as college underclassmen or high-school players):
>
> Darko Milicic (high lottery)
> Mickael Pietrus (lottery)
> Maciej Lampe (lottery)
> Pavel Podkolzin (late lottery to mid first round)
> Boris Diaw (mid first round)
> Leandrinho Barbosa (mid first round)
> Alexsandar Pavlovic (mid first round)
> Anderson Varejao (mid to late first round)
> Sofaklis Schortsianitis (mid to late first round)
> Zaur Pachulia (mid to late first round)
>
>
> If you're doing the math, that brings our total to 25 first-round "locks."
>
> The one caveat here is that several international players will pull out of
> the draft if their agents aren't happy with their projected draft
positions.
> Lampe, Podkolzin, Varejao, Pachulia and Schortsianitis will only stay in
the
> draft if they're projected to go in the lottery or mid first round. Right
> now that seems to be a safe assumption for everyone but Sofaklis.
>
> Three other international players stand a very good chance of landing in
the
> first round:
>
> Victor Khryapa (late first round)
> Carlos Delfino (late first round)
> Zarko Carbakapa (late first round)
>
> Again, the caveat here is that Khryapa and Delfino are classified as
> underclassmen and could decide to pull out. I think it's unlikely either
> will.
>
> That brings the total to 28 players in Round 1.
>
> Several other U.S. players are currently on the first-round bubble:
>
> Brian Cook
> Marcus Banks
> Josh Howard
> Marcus Moore
> Travis Outlaw
> Travis Hansen
> Rick Rickert
> Kendrick Perkins
> Ndudi Ebi
>
> Three other international players are also on the first-round bubble:
>
> Zoran Planinic
> Malick Badiane
> Slavko Vranes
>
> That's 12 players for one last draft slot. For the unconverted, look at
> another way: If all the international underclassmen we identified (Lampe,
> Podkolzin, Varejao, Pachulia, Schortsianitis, Khryapa and Delfino) pull
> their names out of the draft, the number of international players
projected
> to go in the first round is only down to six, tying last year's record.
>
> That's the worst-case scenario for U.S. hopefuls, folks. More likely, a
> couple will pull their names and the rest will roll the dice. That leads
to
> some interesting battles for those last few first-round spots.
>
> On paper, players like Cook (Big 10 Player of the Year), Howard (ACC
Player
> of the Year) or Banks seem like the logical picks. But something else is
> working against these kids this year.
>
> With the luxury-tax finally ready to sink its teeth into the NBA's biggest
> spenders, more and more teams late in the first round are looking for
> international players they can stash overseas for a year or two. The team
> retains the kid's draft rights, the player gets more playing time than he
> would on a top-tier NBA team, and the player's salary does not count on
the
> team's books.
>
> The Nets had great success doing this last season with Nenad Kristic. The
> Jazz also have gone this route in the past with Andrei Kirilenko and Raul
> Lopez.
>
> This year, teams with multiple first-round picks (Celtics, Magic, Pistons)
> and teams whose rosters already are stacked (Blazers and Mavs) are leaning
> in this direction. Several players like Khryapa, Delfino, Pachulia,
> Schortsianitis and Varejao are open to staying overseas next year if it
gets
> them drafted in Round 1 this year. That gives them a major advantage over
> most of the U.S. kids.
>
> No matter how you slice it, some underclassmen, high school seniors and
even
> college seniors are going to be crying their eyes out on draft night.
>
> Among the who's-who of college and high school basketball who look like
> they'll be potential draft night losers? As many as eight of the bubble
> players (Cook, Banks, Howard, Moore, Outlaw, Hansen, Rickert, Perkins and
> Ebi) we just projected, plus:
>
> Chris Thomas
> Jameer Nelson
> Charlie Villanueva
> Josh Powell
> Dahntay Jones
> Luke Walton
> Jason Kapono
> Ron Slay
> Troy Bell
> Marquis Estill
>
> That has to be a sobering thought among the hard-core college hoops fans
who
> still cling to the antiquated "Made in the USA" notion.