Re: Financial gains - Moneyball

[Ryan W <ubiquitous_am_i@xxxxxxxxx>]

Coincindentally, I just started reading this book on
Monday....and it is worthy of all the praise that has
been heaped on it.  I would recommend it to anyone
that has every dreamed of running his or her own
team....  

And if we wanna talk about the undercurrent of the
book (which one of the articles attempts to describe),
I would say that it runs alongside the longtime
epistemological (that is, what do we know and how do
we know it and is that knowledge reliable) borders
between tradition and reason.  For years, baseball
(and I would venture to guess all sports) had been run
along traditional ideas of how to play the game (i.e.,
you're up there to hit the ball, not walk....or as
Dominican's are fond of saying, "You don't walk off
the island.") that gave more worth to a base hit than
to a walk (they SHOULD be equal, since they both get
you to first).  Furthermore, certain stats were, in
baseball, traditionally held up as good indicators of
worth, such as RBI's.  However, through statistical
analysis, Billy Beane and boys (Bill James, the
baseball writer is in the book as well), determined
that certain other stats were better indicators of
offensive performance (on-base percentage and the
OPS).  Thus, in the end, reason is shown to overtake
tradition (one of the best analogies in the book is by
Beane...he says that baseball knowledge of today is
analogous to medical knowledge in the 18th Century).  


The question we need to ask is whether the same
revolution can be fostered in basketball.  And so that
would be my question to the list....are there any
stats out there that you feel are especially
inconclusive and not stable indicators of worth?  My
first thought on such a subject invariably turns to
assists....like RBI's, assists are often just the
product of being in the right place and the right time
and are not stable indicators of the player's ability
to find open teammates or to pass.  

Ryan
--- Celtic4Hire@xxxxxxx wrote:
> It seems all these GMs have read Moneyball about the
> Oakland Athletics by the 
> way they are focusing on the money situation and
> going young. Has anyone read 
> it? I have heard it mentioned as recommended reading
> from financial sites. 
> Just saw that Larry Brown was reading it from a
> previous post....
> 
> DJessen33
> 
> Financial gain expected from trade
> By Matt Steinmetz
> CONTRA COSTA TIMES
> 
> Less than a year ago, Warriors general manager Garry
> St. Jean was talking to 
> reporters in his office when he showed them a
> blackboard with the following 
> words written on it: "Warriors' philosophy."
> 
> Under that heading were approximately 10 guidelines
> for the upcoming season. 
> Among them: "Develop the young core; no short-term
> fixes; stick with the plan 
> -- go young."
> 
> On Monday, an eight-player trade between the
> Warriors and Dallas is expected 
> to be finalized, one that will send Antawn Jamison,
> the team's leading scorer 
> for the past four years, and three other players, to
> the Mavericks for point 
> guards Nick Van Exel and Avery Johnson, forward
> Popeye Jones and center Evan 
> Eschmeyer.
> 
> Within the past two months, the Warriors, who are
> coming off their most 
> successful season since 1993-94, have turned over
> half their roster. They drafted 
> shooting guard Mickael Pietrus, signed free-agent
> point guard Speedy Claxton 
> and are on the cusp of adding those four Mavericks,
> three of whom are 32 years 
> of age or older. The league is expected to make the
> deal official on Monday.
> 
> In the meantime, they lost starting point guard
> Gilbert Arenas, 21, to the 
> Washington Wizards and backup Earl Boykins to the
> Denver Nuggets via free 
> agency. And now, Jamison, Danny Fortson, Chris Mills
> and Jiri Welsch are no longer 
> in the picture.
> 
> The trade with Dallas not only will have a
> significant impact on the court 
> but on the team's future salary cap situation. The
> effects on the hardwood will 
> come immediately. But the financial flexibility that
> the trade could yield 
> probably won't come for a few years.
> 
> Jamison's departure likely will open up the starting
> small forward position 
> for Mike Dunleavy, who played sparingly last season
> as a rookie. In Jamison, 
> the Warriors lose a player who has averaged over 20
> points per game during his 
> five-year career. Arenas, who averaged 18.6 points
> per game last season, was 
> the team's second-leading scorer a year ago.
> 
> Van Exel, Dallas' second-leading scorer in the
> playoffs last season, will 
> likely inherit Arenas' starting position, forcing
> Claxton into a backup role.
> 
> The move does allow the Warriors, coming off a 38-44
> season, to get out from 
> under Jamison's unwieldy contract. He is set to earn
> $69 million over the next 
> five years -- and an exorbitant $19.1 million in
> 2007-08. Trading Fortson, 
> who missed 65 games for a variety of reasons last
> season, will save the Warriors 
> almost $26 million over the next four years.
> 
> Johnson, who will make $5.4 million this season, and
> Mills, who will make $6 
> million, are on the final year of their contracts.
> In all, the Warriors lopped 
> off approximately $45 million in guaranteed payroll
> that was to be paid out 
> through 2008.
> 
> That savings, however, likely won't be felt until
> after the 2006 season, when 
> Van Exel's contract expires. The only way the
> Warriors will get a quick 
> financial windfall from the trade is if Van Exel
> opts out of his contract at 
> season's end. Van Exel, who has approximately $35
> million remaining on his deal, 
> would have to leave $25 million of it on the table
> -- in order to become a free 
> agent at the end of 2003-04.
> 
> Further clouding the salary cap issue is that center
> Erick Dampier also has 
> an opt-out clause after this year. If Dampier opts
> out, he would give up $17 
> million over the final two years of his contract. If
> Van Exel and Dampier don't 
> opt out, the Warriors' payroll next summer will
> likely hover around $40 
> million, not far enough under the salary cap to be a
> major player in the free agent 
> market.
> 
> Salary cap relief might not come until after the
> 2006 season, when the 
> contracts of Van Exel and Dampier expire. As of now,
> only Eschmeyer has a guaranteed 
> deal that extends into the 2006-07 season.


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