forward looking

["hironaka@xxxxxxxxx"<hironaka@xxxxxxxxx>]

Looking at the November schedule this summer, it seemed 
that our Celtics had a reasonable chance to go 10-7 this 
month (11-6 is still possible). 

Now that the month is winding down, that's still an 
achievable team goal with the Hawks twinbill plus a 
beatable Chicago and Toronto hosted at the Fleet next 
week.

A 10-win outcome for November would be ideal in light of 
the weaker December schedule, when we ought to make some 
hay. 

(Needless to mention that ANY 10-win month is generally a 
good month).

In December, four of our toughest opponents are at home
and "tough" is a relative term (New Orleans, Orlando, 
Phoenix and Minnesota).

The easier games will be 0'fers like Memphis, Knicks, 
Cleveland and Miami all at home and Knicks, Cleveland, 
Miami and the Bulls on the road.

That's up to 12 winnable games for our Celtics.

Then you have five "tough" road games @Atlanta, Orlando 
twice, Philly and finally a NJ rematch in Exit 16W.

What it boils down to is that our Celtics got out of the 
first NJ game in good shape. 

To their credit, the Celts got some wins this month that, 
on-paper, were losses back when we were all predicting 
the season W-L.  

We need to preserve the outcome of this month's 6-game 
winning streak by getting closer to .500 ball in the 
other games. Boston is on a 7-2 run now, but weve also 
had two losing streaks already, and we know how easy it 
is for that to happen.

Now the November-ending four game stretch with Atlanta 
etc. becomes very important.

That's because the last big challenge of 2002 comes right 
around the corner (1,2,4 December) with tests against New 
Orleans, @Orlando and the rematch @Philly. 

Those are teams a lot of fans may feel have better talent 
than Boston.  

Beating the Philly's and NJ's this month means we can 
afford to lose all three early December games (I'd rather 
we won all three) and still be on track toward 10 games 
over .500 by December 31st.

And thus on pace for the mid-50 win total we all want 
going into the playoffs.

So let's hope our guys keep improving on our current 7-2 
run into the next crucial week and a half. 

In fact, its clear that Boston has to improve its play 
substantially, as our still unsightly cumulative team 
stats illustrate. I want to see our captains play up to 
their abilities, for one thing.

And I want to see the Celtics go balls out this weekend, 
against an Atlanta team that, cliche of cliches, is 
better than their record.

Having said that, I want to suggest that, more broadly, 
this is no longer the same Eastern Conference as last 
year or past years, where roughly everyone seemed equally 
capable or mediocre talent-wise. 

The key difference (apparent even before the first game 
of this season) is that you have some true bottom 
feeders. Whoever can consistently beat the beatables will 
be at the forefront of the playoff and division title 
hunt. 

The Celtics are the guys up at bat in December: with a 
schedule of teams we should absolutely paste if we think 
we're any good.

(Of course, Pitino had a similarly patsie schedule in his 
last half-season, yet he still left us at 11-games 
under .500)

By the new year, Boston will have completed 34 games. My 
view, FWIW, is that 22 or 23 wins is achievable at that 
stage (on paper). 

At the same time, obviously that would be a fantastic 
result. Frankly, a 17-0 December is even possible, 
although the odds must be infinitesimally small. 

In the recent past for Obiewon, we've actually played 
some hot basketball around the holidays. That's when we 
made our move last year. Plus we match up well with all 
the strongest teams we face next month, with the arguable 
exception of New Jersey. 

That's why the Celtics should guard against getting cute 
and meandering through the coming 30 days. Sure we should 
be happy anywhere above .500 and we seem to be a strong 
second-half team.

But believe it, they'll need the cushion for 2003, when 
the Celtics face a repeat of the chainsaw massacre (0-6 
last year against the Texans) as well as the annual West 
Coast swing (relatively successful under Obie). 

Plus the schedule is back-loaded with emerging 2002-03 
teams like Indiana, Seattle and so on (Sacramento, 
Detroit).

Mainly we need the "Half Truth" (.372) and Marie 
Antoinette Walker (.394, 7.7 boards) to play at least 
back up to their career averages, if not quite up to 
deserved All Star level. Basically, the next 20 games are 
going to have to be about Paul and Antoine stepping up. I 
have the feeling they will, and its about time. 

Sorry guys, this was kind of a longer post than 
necessary, compared to the information conveyed. No time 
to edit it.

Go Celts!

Joe H.



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