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Athlon Sports on scoring efficiency (or, the truth about Toine)
Thanks to JB for posting this to the Celticsstuff list. It's a recap of an
Athlon Sports feature on scoring efficiency. Extremely revealing, and I'm
not just saying that because it backs up my point of view. :) Here it
is:--Mark
This should once and for all end this idiotic debate about why Walker is
criticized so often when Pierce is not. Leave it to Athlon Sports in it's
NBA preview to get to the meat of the matter. This is what they had to say:
What you want from your scorers is effeciency-meaningful, not indiscriminate
shots. You want the right meld of two pointers, three's and freebies. You
want volume, you want accuracy and you want consistency. No traditional
stat such as points per game (skewed by number of shots and playing time) or
field goal percentage (biased by distance and difficulty) measures all of
these things compositely. Points per filed goal attempt gets closer. But
it's major weakness, on a full season basis, is that it ignores consistency;
groups of horrific or brilliant games can distort the stat. So, we
introduce Scoring Efficiency Index (SEI), which dissects PTS-per-FGA in a
powerful new way-on a game by game basis, not over the season as a whole.
It tells who is or is not productive with their shot attempts in the highest
percentage of their games, thus giving their teams the best chance to win
those games.
Last season the average filed goal attempt in the NBA yielded 1.176 points.
But if you isolate a segment of players who take shots at well above average
rate, and look at their PTS/FGA on a game by game basis, you'll find that
1.176 number to be an elusive one- something achieved in fewer than half
their games.
This is the essence of the SEI. It shows in what percentage of his games a
player exceeded the league norm in producing points per shot. And when
compared to the rate of a players scoring it can identify which players need
too many shots to produce their points and which are being under-utilized as
scoreres.
The magazine ranks the top 150 players who qualified for the SEI, who played
at least 400 minutes last season.
I'm not going to list the entire table. But some observations they make
according to their data:
* We're unimpressed by Chris Webbers PTS per 48 of 32.12. His SEI was an
ordinary .443. The night he "torched" the Pacers for 51 points it took him
47 shots to do it-and the Kings lost.
* Let's end the Antoine Walker/ Paul Pierce debate once and for all.
Pierce (.707 SEI) is one of the most effecient scorers in the NBA; Walker
(.272) is just a gunner whose consumption of the basketball is killing the
Celts.
* Memo to Antawn Jamison, Jason Terry, Rip Hamilton, Jamal Mashburn, Ron
Mercer, and Larry Hughes: Read the memo to 'Toine and tone it down a little,
OK?
* Kobe or Vince? Kobe. Comfortably.
The list:
#1 Shaq O'Neal, .851
#2 Dirk Nowitzki, .793
#3 Karl Malone, .741
#4 Reggie Miller, .728
#5 David Robinson, .713
#6 Paul Pierce, .707
#7 Kobe Bryant, .691
#8 Ray Allen, .671
#9 Tim Duncan, .646
#10 Andre Miller, .646
#11 Steve Nash, .643
#12 Donyell Marshall, .642
#13 Anonio McDyss, .629
#14 Predrag Stojakovic, .627
#15 Bonzi Wells, .627
#16 Steve Francis, .625
#17 Corey Maggette, .623
#18 Ruben Patterson, .618
#19 Shareef Abdur-Rahim, .617
#20 Rashard Lewis, .615
More:
#22 Vince Carter, .600
#25 Jerry Stackhouse, .588
#30 Alan Iverson, .563
#36 Tracy McGrady, .545
#97 Latrell Sprewell, .390
#111 Ron Mercer, .344
#129 Olowokandi, .305
#136 Antoine Walker, .272
#140 Larry Hughes, .260
#150 Chris Mills, .200
Very interesting reading. The table also lists points per 48 minutes and
subtacts this ranking from the SEI ranking to determine who should be
shooting more and what scorers are really "fools gold" and should be
shooting less. Those with minuses are under utilized and those with pluses
are overrated as scorers.
Pierce had a -2 and Walker a +117. That pretty much sums up the difference
that most fans see on a game by game basis. We didn't need an SEI ranking
to point that out to us.
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