The Walker debate

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Focusing primarily on Walker's contributions on offense, there are several 
separate issues. Here's my framework for looking at it:

1. What are Walker's particular talents and skills?

a. Passing: He is a sufficiently good distributor to average 6 apg, IF he 
is the primary ballhandler on the team.

b. Rebounding: He has shown the ability to pick up 7 defensive rebounds per 
game in heavy minutes. Depending on where he is playing on offense, he'll 
get between 2.0-3.5 offensive boards per game.

c. Scoring: Last year he scored 8.2 ppg on three-pointers and 15.2 ppg on 
two-point field goals and free throws. I felt he converted more efficiently 
on three pointers than other opportunities (55% vs 48% under my efficiency 
measure) though as discussed on this list, three pointers are "overrated" 
by this measurement. For Walker in particular, his two point opportunities 
can generate double teams and therefore quality assists (as well as 
offensive rebounding opportunities for himself) while his three pointers 
don't create any other value. On the other hand, we're not including the 
fact that many of his turnovers come off his botched drives, which means 
that his two-point efficiency is even worse than it looks (which is already 
quite bad).

2. What should Walker's role be on a good team built around him and Pierce?

I think that this issue gets mixed with the third issue - What is his role 
on the current (not very good) Celtics team? Remember when the 76ers stunk 
and Iverson was considered a selfish loser? Larry Brown at first attempted 
to convince Iverson to become a 20 ppg, 8 apg, more efficient scoring point 
guard, because he has the talent to do that. But then he changed his 
evaluation of Iverson's unique skills and his approach to building the team 
by putting Iverson at shooting guard, which was a pretty brave experiment.

Similarly I think there are two ways that Walker could be used:

a. Pitino's vision was that Walker would be a 16 ppg, 12 rpg, 6 apg power 
forward. Many on the list hope for something similar. To build a successful 
team around the "low-scoring Walker", you would need another significant 
16-18 ppg scorer: a penetrating point guard, a top shooter, or an 
inside-scoring center. Gene put it best when he said that this team would 
be much better when Walker was the third scorer. On the other hand, it's 
unclear whether Walker has the mindset to work this way.

b. The other approach is the 76ers approach. Walker's not an efficient high 
volume scorer, but like Iverson, he likes to score. The way you win with 
low-percentage scoring is to have a great defense. The great thing about 
Iverson is that with him putting up 30 ppg and drawing double teams, you 
can essentially play a team of defensive specialists around him. Walker is 
not going to score like Iverson but he has Pierce as a complementary 
player. The idea would be to surround Walker and Pierce with defensive 
specialists, particularly a center to cover Walker's deficiencies (in the 
way that Snow covers Iverson's). Of course, getting a good defensive center 
is very, very hard.

Of course, the ideal is something that has elements of both: Walker becomes 
the 16-12-6 player plus we get a center that scores inside and is strong 
defensively: a lineup kind of like Mutombo, Walker, Pierce, Johnson, and 
Eric Snow for instance. A pipe dream but maybe you can somehow get a 
Ratliff type player (maybe trading Johnson or Kedrick Brown or getting 
lucky in the draft).

3. What should Walker's role be on the current Celtics team?

I think that the team last year needed Walker to score 23+ ppg, as 
inefficient as he was, regardless of his inefficiency. Compared to the year 
before, the team lost Kenny Anderson who scored over 14 ppg and was playing 
offensively weak players Palacio and Blount for much of the year. Having 
Walker throw up 3's, as aesthetically displeasing as it is, was better than 
the alternatives. When O'Brien took over, Walker shot many more 3's, scored 
more, and the team won more.

On the current team, you now have Anderson back and Joe Johnson available. 
I believe that the team is closer to what I described in (2a) above than 
(2b), and that is what Wallace is shooting for. So far, Walker is operating 
under last year's approach and heaving up a ton of shots (leading the 
league). Amazingly, he's shooting 20% from two point range compared to 40% 
from three point range. Obviously he's not making optimal shooting 
decisions and you can't really blame it on O'Brien.

Of course, it's only three games into the season. Johnson is still 
developing and Anderson seems less inclined to shoot this year, which is 
part of the reason why Walker may feel compelled to continue shooting. He's 
not going to finish the season shooting 20%. So I hope that as the season 
goes on, Johnson takes on more scoring responsibility, and Walker cuts down 
on his bad shots and focuses more on rebounding and passing. Hopefully 
he'll be the recipient of more assists too, which didn't happen very often 
last year.

Alex