RE: musings

[Kestutis.Kveraga@dartmouth.edu (Kestutis Kveraga)]

--- You wrote:
Of course, couldn't we all have predicted the Wizards' luck?
--- end of quote ---

Not to rain on the conspiracy theorists' parade, but it's not like Washington's
chances of winning the lottery were improbable. They had the third-best odds,
almost 1 in 6. The leap that the Clips made - from 9th to 2rd - was far less
likely . But I haven't seen any Oliver Stoneian theories about that despite
their having ~3% chance of vaulting into the top 3. And it's not as if though
there's a consensus, runaway #1 choice a la Shaq or Duncan. The 3rd pick might
be as good as the 1st, for all we know.   

--- You wrote:
My worst fear is the lottery plays out just like this and the Celtic
"braintrust" sits there at 10 and says "Antoine is our power forward" and
instead of taking the two best players on the board, settles for Loren Woods
and Jamaal Tinsley or some such thing. I can hear the press conference
now... "We've addressed our two most glaring needs with two college seniors
who can step in and help right away..." Then the season will start, Woods
will play like Tony Battie and Tinsley will play like Chauncey Billups and
we'll still be outrebounded by every team in the league. Sigh......
--- end of quote ---

That's my fear, too, although not Woods or Tinsley specifically, because I
don't know that much about them. However, the sounds emanating from
Wallace/Papile's mouths have been somewhat reassuring - all that stuff about
looking at the "big picture" etc. etc. Projecting how a player is going to
develop is a very tricky business, of course, and we just have to hope that our
'brain trust' is good at it. 
If someone (foolishly) entrusted me with that responsibility, I would look for
two things - physical potential and character. A strong desire to be the best
you can be (like Jordan's or even Pierce's) is essential, and the physical
talent allows the fulfillment of that desire. One without the other is not much
good, as we might be finding out in the case of Moiso, and see in the case of
Potapenko. (It makes me wish for the possibility of some "Young
Frankenstein"-like exchange of drive for physical talent between Pot and Moiso,
with both sides benefitting :> ).
Kestas