Re: MOCK DRAFT - NBA MOCK DRAFT - InsideHoops.com

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

>    From what I've heard, Wagner goes in the top 3, depending on the
> certainty of the draftors analysis of the big centers. While most
> agree that the centers have flaws and may never be the next Shaq, I've
> never read a word doubting that Wagner is ready right now and is
> unstoppable.

That may well be. These days undersized scoring guards are all the rage,
thanks mainly to the undeniable exploits of Iverson. Dajuan Wagner is a
6-2 kid who hasn't been called on to play any ball distribution role so
far in his life (any high school coach who did would probably need to
have his brain examined).

Mark Berry previously raised the subject of high risk/low reward on
undersized shooting guards, and I think his view has a ton of merit as a
general rule of thumb. In terms of outsized talent, the Wagner situation
reminds me of the hype surrounding Chris Jackson when he was first
recruited at LSU. Some of these kids end up being great pros. Others end
up being instant impact, tremendous college players (think AJ Guyton)
who have no impact in the NBA. I have no clue what category Dajuan
Wagner falls in, but I do have a sense of the odds. For all I know, the
fact that Iverson gave his stamp of approval on the kid is little
different from Antoine preferring Nazr Mohammed over Paul Pierce in 1998
draft. Sure Iverson's friend has "game". I don't doubt it.

That said, I'm want to point out the bias some of these Internet NBA
draft sites have for high school over college productivity.

For instance, the "NBADraft.Net" site that someone posted this week (its
not bad actually) tends to rank talent based on the residue of a
player's past high school resume, even if they haven't done a thing in
college. I'm not talking about the Zach Randolph's and Gerald Wallace's
of the world, both of whom were world beaters in high school but not
good enough to start at freshman. Everyone has those guys ranked high.

What I'm talking about is how NBADraft.Net ranks Chris Duhon as the 10th
best pro prospect, while Loren Woods and Shane Battier don't even make
the top-25! Next comes Troy Murphy 40th, Richard Jefferson 36th and
Forte/Haywood 55th and 56th respectively. On the face of it, it seems
completely nuts. But if you read all the cut&paste hype about these
underclassmen and high schoolers ranked above them, you can only
conclude that the only reason these NCAA stars rank so low is they don't
have a handy, recent press clipping describing their McDonald's All Star
game exploits. Thus the site currently ranks two prep players (Florida
recruits David Lee and James White) higher than Shane Battier.
Puh-lease.

At least for me, that helps put the whole DaJuan Wagner hype in
perspective. If he's suddenly a lock for a top-three pick overall, it
probably says more about NBA general managers being "monkey see, monkey
do" than anything else. Iverson is about to be named MVP as a 6-1
scoring guard. Obviously, we need to go find more easy "Answers" just
like him.

I'd like to see how DaJuan Wagner plays in a team system, and against
better and more sophisticated defenses, before drafting him to be our
holy grail "third scorer". From what I understand, his father Milt was
hired two years ago as a Memphis assistant coach by John Calipari in
order to recruit him. I wonder what happens to Milt now, as the result
of his son's decision? I also feel bad for Pitino, who lost out on
Ousmane Cisse, and actually doesn't seem to have any pro talent on the
Louisville roster. He must be so sick and tired of losing. He's probably
feeling a whole lot more impatient to turn things around than he would
be if he hadn't gone through the whole Boston experience. He's such a
great recruiter, I'm sure he can turn that team around in a few years.

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