Re: Dejuan Wagner & Alton Ford & Springer Suggests Trade

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

Kestutis Kveraga wrote:

> Shira Springer
> "If the Celtics need good reason to think deal before draft, they should look
> no farther than Jerome Moiso. The rookie, who was chosen with the 11th pick in
> the 2000 draft, was seldom used and it's unclear what role, if any, he will
> play in the future."
>
> +++The thought that she's comparing #11 in the worst draft in recent memory to
> #10-11 in  the best one apparently never enters her mind. Nor does she consider
> the fact that Moiso was a Pitino pick - a man who haughtily thought he could
> mold anyone with a great physical ability into an NBA player (I suggest
> androgen supplementation therapy for Moiso, or being coached by someone like
> Pat Riley).

    I kind of like Shira Springer's game coverage this year, but I agree that her
"look no farther than Jerome Moiso" comment is the new Webster's definition of
myopia. A year ago, I'm sure she and Cofman would have happily argued that "another
Paul Pierce could be available at #10". Let's remember that Jerome "Crouching
Poodle" Moiso was 22 on the day Pitino drafted him, whereas Pierce was relatively
speaking just a young "developmental project" at 20-years-old. I really think you
need to put the Moiso/Poultrino "headless chicken" dynamic in its proper context.

    Now here's the thing, there is no question or debate that great players have
been available at or after the 10th pick in virtually every NBA draft. The question
is whether you hit on the right combination.

    For instance, All Star players selected with either the 10th or 11th pick in
the 1990s include only Eddie Jones, Allan Houston and Terrell Brandon. That's four
out of twenty picks. But then you have a lot of other legit or on-the-verge NBA
players (Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, Bonzi Wells and a lot of players of a Lindsey
Hunter, Fortson, Kurt Thomas caliber). Finally you have five debatable "El Bustos"
from the decade (Brian Williams, Adam Keefe, Carlos Rogers, Todd Fuller, Trajan
Langdon).

    In other words, 25% of the time you end up with less than a fulltime NBA
starter out of the 10th or 11th pick. But of course Boston this year has two shots
at it, which greatly improves our margin for error. It all depends on how stupid we
feel our scouting is, and what we might get offered to part with our picks.

    I say this because one very important point to note is that--although the
actual guys drafted at 10 or 11 is a mixed bag-- you'll find in every draft (strong
or weak) that there were always at least two solid starters available between the
10th and say 15th picks for the team that scouted well. So to the All Star names
already listed above, you can now add others like Kobe Bryant, Jalen Rose and Dale
Davis along with up-and-comers like Peta Stojakovic, Austin Croshere, Derek
Anderson, Mo Taylor and many more. So now you are up to maybe 8 or 9 past, present
or future All Stars out of the 20 picks in the past decade.

    Note I've used the 14th pick as an arbitrary cut-off point, not because it is
useful to my argument but because it seems reasonable that most GMs had such
players rated more or less at a similar level, and thus it is plausible that they
could have been strongly considered with the 10th/11th pick. But now if I were to
cheat a bit and say "the best two players available with the 10th pick or later",
than you can go ahead and add even more good players into the mix.

    For instance, how would you like to pass on all of the above and settle on a
Theo Ratliff and Michael Finley in 1995? Or, tough break, end up with just a PJ
Brown and Doug Christie in 1992? Others names that were outside lottery range
include All Star participants Sam Cassell, Nick Van Exel and young talents like
Cuttino Mobley, Jermaine O'Neil, Rashard Lewis, Ruben Patterson, James Posey,
Shammond Williams.

    Bearing in mind that Boston might not be able to even get teams to give us any
of these players in exchage for our draft pick (hey Jermaine O'Neil alone would
have cost us all three first round picks, and that was before last year), it seems
prudent to hold onto these picks, in what is arguably as deep a draft than any
since 1996.

Joe

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