Re: Somebody run + thoughts on current state of the team

[Kestutis.Kveraga@dartmouth.edu (Kestutis Kveraga)]

--- You wrote:
Some of you mathematicians out there need to do a statistical analysis.
I want to know the correlation between Antoine's rebounds and wins and
losses.  This one was over in the first period eh.  Are they tired, or
have they just come back to earth?  I hope they are just tired.
--- end of quote ---

Even if there were a correlation, it wouldn't necessarily tell you anything. It
likely would not account for much variance (there are lots of things besides
Toine's rebounding that influence whether the Celtics win or lose: the quality
of the opponent, whether the Celts are playing defense, what their shooting %
is etc. etc.). And it wouldn't tell you what the causal relationship is 
between 'Toine's rebounding and Celtic losses: did they lose because he was
slacking off on the boards and got only a handful of rebounds, or did they lose
because they played no defense, the opponent shot 65% and scored in bunches
(and there were fewer rebounds available), or did they lose because the
opponent had a big front line that dominated both the defensive and the
offensive boards?

With that said, I see where you're coming from. Walker's rebounding numbers may
well be an indicator of his general effort level, even if there's no easy way
to show it conclusively. I think the effort level of our stars has been
dropping precipitously in the last few games, especially on defense. Combined
with Kenny's strict no-defense policy and Stith's injury, it tipped the team
balance into a classic Pitino-era mail-in last night. For the first time in
years I turned off the game early - if they aren't gonna bother trying, I'm not
gonna bother watching. 

Are they tired? I find it a little difficult to accept: while travel can be
tiring, these are (mostly) 20-some-year-old men, who travel in great comfort in
luxurious chartered planes, stay in finest hotels, have everything taken care
off, and can rest all day except for a 1-2 hour walk-through or video session.
We're not talking overnight rides on a Greyhound bus here, folks. 

While the trip can not be termed a disaster because of the wins in Seattle and
Portland, I find this trend very alarming. This mental softness, choosing to
launch a 3 instead of working to get a better shot, choosing to walk it up
instead of forcing the pace and finding the open man on the break, giving up
layups and losing your men on defense, is indicative of quitting - not
necessarily on the coach, but on yourself and your teammates, which is even
worse, because replacing the coach won't solve the problem. Perhaps Mark was
right saying that if they quit on Pitino, they'll quit again. Certain players,
who always work hard (e.g. Pot) continue to work hard, but they don't have
enough talent or stature to significantly affect the outcomes of games or to
set the tone. 

But this is what needed to be found with Pitino removed from the equation.
Going into the summer, we need to know who's gonna fight for the team, and
who's gonna quit when the three-pointers don't go in. One question I would've
loved to ask Chris Wallace (not that he would answer it - he just reveals no
useful info whatsoever) last night, just to air it, is what it would take, in
terms of giving up talent, picks, taking on another team's crap etc., to get
rid of Kenny? Jordan got rid of Howard, but the difference is, Howard, as
overpriced as he is, can contribute something to a team. 

So, where to we go from here? If I were JOB, I'd have Walker officially play
PG. His game and body are very similar to Magic's, except, of course, he's not
nearly as good. However, he'd do just as good a job bringing the ball up,
shooting long J's, and driving into a crowd of defenders as Kenny, except he'd
more effective because he's 6-9 and 245. Like Kenny, he couldn't/wouldn't guard
the opposing PGs, but unlike Kenny, he could post them up or shot J's over
them. We'd get a few more rebounds out of the PG position. Battie could play
his natural position of PF, with Antoine switching to it when Tony needed a
rest, or when Palacio came in to play some D on the opposing PG. This way we
can replace a useless PG with a 6-11 guy who would boost our shotblocking,
rebounding, and low-post scoring and defense, without really losing anything or
expanding  the rotation. It's a no-brainer.

My rotation

Starters:
C - Blount
PF - Battie
SF - Pierce
SG - Stith
PG - Walker

Subs:
C/PF Pot
SF/SG Williams
PG Palacio

Kestas