My prediction: (was) Headless chicken finale

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

Alexander Wang wrote:

> I think that the choice is really Pitino's as to whether he wants to leave
> or not. There are probably three main issues: his reputation, his bank
> account, and his enjoyment of winning. He's still got a hefty amount on his
> contract left and I doubt that Gaston wants to force him out. On the other
> hand it's not like he's going to be looking hard for a job if he quits;
> colleges will still be lining up. He has stated that he wants to coach in
> the NBA if he doesn't succeed with the Celtics, though.
>
> The reputation issue is a tough one. If he still doesn't improve, the
> sportswriters will be all over him, even more than they are now. But if he
> sees any improvement, even if it's less than making the playoffs, he may be
> tempted to stick around and see it through, because as Joe says, why leave
> town a loser when you can see the light at the end of the tunnel?
>
> But what Pitino's said is that he hates losing, and why be unhappy if you
> don't have to be? He talks about how in college they'd only lose five times
> a year. You could see him wearing down visibly during that losing streak.
> My guess is that if they're not in the playoff race by the stretch run,
> he'll be demoralized enough to step down. But if they compete at the end
> and fall short, he's not going to quit.

     Tough call. Good points, Alex.  Now that I think about it, it probably makes
the most sense that Pitino would go back to college coaching if and when he gets
the team just above .500 and into the playoffs. That way he won't suffer the
aggravation of losing dozens of times a year (that pretty much goes with the
territory in NBA coaching) plus he saves part of his reputation even if his
successor in Boston starts winning instantly because he will get (and deserve)
credit for buiding the foundation of a playoff team, not to mention generously
leaving behind draft picks and a team with much more cap flexibility. But all
signs suggest to me that he will stay another few years.

    Having said that, I'll already make my prediction. Because I've been off by a
dozen wins for the last two years, I'm going to guess 33 wins and hope my
prediction is off in the wrong direction this time. The number "33" also augurs
well for an eventual coming of the Bird era in Boston.

     FWIW,  I view the biggest keys for the season as follows:

1) Get off to a fast start and internalize what it take to win. Learn to expect to
win whenever you wear the Boston uniform and put a little swagger/pride back into
Celtics basketball. They cannot lose to weak teams in the easy early schedule,
because they simply can't afford to. If they are at or below .500 after the first
few months, I think even 33 is a very optimistic goal.

2) Rebounding. The Celtics have to do much better on the boards or they face a
recipe for a truly awful season no matter if both Walker and Pierce make the All
Star team. Boston is averaging 40.14 boards per game so far in the exhibition
season and only Potapenko of all people has had a double double (he's had two
actually). As noted, this is nearly three fewer boards than last year and would
have ranked Boston dead last in the NBA last year (Vancouver averaged 40.5).

3) Don't hit the wall. Last year the Celtics only went 15-26 in the second half
(3-10 in February) even though the schedule got noticeably easier. In the lockout
year they went 4-14 in March and that was all she wrote. That year they were
actually at .500 on March 5th, then went 12-24 the rest of the way. As for year
one of the Pitino era, the Celtics went 3-11 in March after winning the opening
day of that month to get up to 28-30. Each year things start out hopeful and then
disaster strikes. This is either a pattern of the Boston Chicken dynasty, or it
can be blamed on youth/inexperience.

4) Hold teams to .460 or better on FG attempts and they will make the playoffs.
They are at the usual .472 with one game left in the exhibition (aren't FG%
supposed to be lower in the exhibition games?!), but as noted Boston has been
playing much better as of late in this regard.

There's more, but I'm getting boring with these consecutive long posts. Anyway, my
feeling (or only hope left) is that the more adamantly pessimistic and certain of
myself that I am, the more likely it is the Celtics will prove me wrong as usual
and start delivering whup-ass on the East like nothing we've seen in a long time.
But no way am I picking a high win total this year. No way. The third straight
Spring meltdown last season is too hard to block out or refuse to evaluate
objectively. If they can fool me for a fourth time, then shame on me. And even if
Pitino does succeed, I just don't enjoy watching his style of "offense". They
score points but it's too butt ugly. It was not that aesthetically pleasing to
watch at Kentucky, and it's even uglier now from a purist, traditional Celtics fan
view.

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