BSG's Draft Analysis Says C's Trade or Richardson

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

BSG has written an excellent two part article on the draft....

http://home.digitalcity.com/boston/sportsguy/main.dci?page=2draft00

THE LUCKY THIRTEEN 

Two disclaimers:

1. The biggest reason everyone hates mock drafts? Draft-day trades. For
instance, there's NO WAY the Magic will keep all three picks... they'll
either package two of them to move up or they'll trade one of them and
force somebody to take Derek Strong's salary. I also believe that the
Celtics will move their pick before tomorrow night. Just wanted to get
that heard before the court.

2. The Greek Guy could go anywhere from 5-20; it all depends on which
NBA team worked out a secret deal with his team in Greece. Basically,
throwing him in the Top Ten is like throwing a grenade into your mock
draft. I hate the Greek Guy.

Onto El Drafto Del Mocko...

1. NETS -- Kenyon Martin
The logical successor to Jayson Williams, right down to his broken leg
that's still healing. Personally, I think the Nets should trade this
pick to Orlando for Doleac and the #5 & #10 picks; it's not like Martin
turns them into a championship team or anything. And this draft is deep
enough that you could get three potential starters out of that trade.
Just my opinion.

2. GRIZZLIES -- Stromile Swift
Right pick, right team. A good match. Too bad Bryant Reeves turned out
to be such a stiff because the Grizz actually look pretty nice on paper
-- Swift, Shareef, Reeves, Dickerson and Bibby. The city of St. Louis
will LOVE that team in two years.

3. CLIPPERS -- Marcus Fizer
Classic Clippers. Why don't they take Cleveland's offer of Brevin Knight
and the #8 for this pick? That's a great trade! Could somebody use the
cattle prod to wake up Elgin Baylor please?

(True fact: I wouldn't let Elgin draft my roto team, much less run an
NBA franchise. His streak of incompetent seasons supasses anything
Robert Wuhl could ever offer.)

4. BULLS -- Darius Miles
Classic Jerry Krause -- he loves sleepers and he definitely loves
UPPPPPPsides. And remember, he can still get a center at #7. You know
he's rolling around naked in glee in a pile of donut crumbs right now.

5. MAGIC -- Chris Mihm
If they're signing two of the marquee free agents this summer -- Duncan,
Hill, McGrady, Jones, whomever -- than it wouldn't make sense for them
to take Mike Miller because he needs 2-3 years to develop. I think
Mihm's the pick -- if they don't trade up -- because they could stick a
three-headed center of Doleac, Mihm and Ameche next to Duncan next
season (assuming they get him, which I think they will). That's 18 fouls
and three serviceable guys. Pretty good luxury.

6. HAWKS -- Mike Miller
BWGA = Best White Guy Available. I like this pick for them, especially
when they're dealing Mutombo and rebuilding after the Post-JR
Apocalypse. Good team for Miller, too -- he stays in the south and
shoots 25 times a game next season. Just writing this paragraph makes me
happy. 

7. BULLS -- Joel Pryzbilla
Smart pick. With Brand, Miles and Artest, they won't need scoring from
the 5-spot, anyway. You could also see them grab Mihm at #4 and Courtney
Alexander in this spot if they wanted to improve right away. Please note
that the Bulls have pulled off something in the last two years that the
Celtics easily could have pulled off from '94-'96.

8. CAVS -- Iakovos Tsakalidis
Just so he can hang out with Zydrunas Ilguaskas.

9. ROCKETS -- Dermarr Johnson
I'm not buying the Jerome Moiso smokescreen, especially when they
already have Pig Thomas and could easily sign someone like Danny
Fortson. Johnson makes the most sense for them here; he'll be motivated
playing with two other young guys (Mobley and Francis). Think those
three will ever hit a Houston strip joint together?

10. MAGIC -- Courtney Alexander
Another "quick fix" pick by Orlando. Here's someone who could provide
scoring from the 2-spot right away... he'll at least give them what Ron
Mercer gave them last year, with the added bonus that he's completely
insane. When it comes right down to it, every team needs at least one
head case.

11. CELTICS -- Quentin Richardson
We covered this yesterday. They SHOULD be taking Crawford here.

12. MAVERICKS -- Jerome Moiso
Normally the Mavs jump on the best foreigner available, but they need a
power forward desperately... leading to the first real mistake of the
draft. Go Nellie go! If there was a pay-per-view three-way chess match
between Nellie, Elgin Baylor and Pedro Guerrero, I'd pluck down $29.95,
no questions asked.

13. MAGIC -- Jamal Crawford
He's not going lower than 13... either the Magic keep him or they trade
the pick and somebody else takes him. He's got UPPPPPPPPPside!!!!


***** ***** ***** ***** ***** 

As we described before, the wheels come off this draft after the Top
Thirteen. Like every year, you'll see six types of players getting
selected over the rest of the first round:

--1. The Geert Hamminks
Foreign guys with unpronounceable names (eg: Mamadou N'diaye, Dalibor
Bagaric).

--2. The Ed O'Bannons
"Tweeners" -- guys either too small for the 4-spot and too big for the
3-spot (eg: Mark Madsen, Hanna Mottola) or too small for the 3-spot and
too slow for the 2-spot (Chris Carrawell, Pete Mickeal).

--3. The Anthony Peelers 
Head cases who fall from the top ten because of strange character flaws
or personal problems (eg: Donnell Harvey, Erick Barkley).

--4. The Jerome Lanes
Guys destined for the CBA (eg: Jabari Smith, Eduardo Najera, Schea
Cotton).

-5. The Shawn Resperts
Shooting guards in point guard's bodies (eg: AJ Guyton, Eddie House).
This is my favorite category because one gets taken every year --
Randolph Childress, Randy Woods, James Robinson, Travis Mays, Jason
Terry, etc. It's a mortal lock. Keyon Dooling will be the all-time
classic example.

-6. The Scott Haskins
Stiff centers who will never contribute for more than 10 minutes a game
(eg: Brad Millard, Dan McClintock).

That reminds me... check out this list of American white guys (over the
height of 6-foot-8) who were taken between the 9th and 24th picks in the
decade, then tell me if you would go near Brad Millard:

Alec Kessler ... Rich King ... Adam Keefe ... Frederic Weis ... Don
McLean ... Scott Haskin ... Eric Montross ... Cherokee Parks ... George
Zidek ... Loren Meyer ... Todd Fuller ... Bill Curley ... Austin
Croshere ... Chris Anstey ... Scott Pollard ... Paul Grant ... Michael
Doleac ... Pat Garrity ... Jeff Foster ... Scott Padgett.

Take away the three guys from the '98 draft -- Croshere, Garrity and
Doleac -- and you'd have the "Dream Team" in next year's Stiff Olympics.
Can somebody call Dr. Quincy so he can light the torch? 

Anyway, if history shows anything, once the first tier of "sure thing"
guys get taken, the "second level" guys have a success rate of about
50%. When that level finally drops off (usually around the 14th or 15th
pick), only two or three more first rounders pan out from the Third
Tier. As we said before, I think the three guys this year 

Just for fun, we'll go through every draft of this decade to prove a
point:

(NOTE: The links for each year take you to Fox Sports' complete list of
every draft)

1999
* Top Tier -- Brand, Francis, Davis, Odom, Bender, Szczercbiak,
Hamilton, Miller, Marion.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #9. Shawn Marion.
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #14, William Avery
* Next player picked -- Frederic Weis.
* Salvageable picks -- Ron Artest (#16); Kenny Thomas (#22); Vonteego
Cummings (#26).

1998
* Top Tier -- Olowokandi, Bibby, LaFrentz, Jamison, Carter, Traylor,
Williams, Hughes, Nowitzki, Pierce.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #10, Paul Pierce
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #15, Matt Harpring
* Next player picked -- Bryce Drew
* Salvageable picks -- Pat Garrity (#19); Ricky Davis (#21); Felipe
Lopez (#25)

1997
* Top Tier -- Duncan, Van Horn, Billups, Daniels, Battie, Mercer, Thomas
* 1st Dropoff point -- #7, Tim Thomas
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #14, Maurice Taylor
* Next player picked -- Kelvin Cato
* Salvageable picks -- Brevin Knight (#16); Rodrick Rhodes (#24)

1996
* Top tier -- Iverson, Camby, Abdur-Rahim, Allen, Walker, Wright,
Kittles.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #8, Kerry Kittles
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #15, Steve Nash
* Next player picked -- Tony Delk
* Salvageable picks -- John Wallace (#18); Zydrunas Ilguaskas (#20);
Jerome Williams (#26)

1995
* Top tier -- Smith, McDyess, Stackhouse, Wallace, Garnett, Reeves,
Stoudamire.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #7, Damon Stoudamire
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #16, Alan Henderson
* Next player picked -- Bob Sura 
* Salvageable picks -- Theo Ratliff (#18); Michael Finley (#21); Greg
Ostertag (#28).

1994
* Top tier -- Robinson, Kidd, Hill, Marshall, Howard
* 1st Dropoff point -- #5, Juwan Howard
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #10, Eddie Jones
* Next player picked -- Carlos Rogers
* Salvageable picks -- #13, Jalen Rose; #23, Wesley Person; #26, Charlie
Ward.

1993
* Top tier -- Webber, Bradley, Hardaway, Mashburn, Rider.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #5, Isaiah Rider
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #14, George Lynch
* Next player picked -- Scott Haskin
* Salvageable picks -- Chris Mills (#22); Sam Cassell (#23).

1992
* Top tier -- Shaq, Mourning, Laettner, Jackson, Ellis, Gugliotta,
Williams, Day, Weatherspoon.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #9, Clarence Weatherspoon
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #15, Anthony Peeler
* Next player picked -- Randy Woods
* Salvageable picks -- Doug Christie (#17); Tracy Murray (#18); Latrell
Sprewell (#24).

1991
* Top tier -- LJ, Anderson, Owens, Mutombo, Steve Smith.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #5, Steve Smith
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #13, Dale Davis
* Next player picked -- Rich King
* Salvageable picks -- #16, Chris Gatling; #24, Rick Fox.

1990
* Top tier -- Coleman, Payton, Abdul-Rauf, Scott, Gill.
* 1st Dropoff point -- #5, Kendall Gill
* 2nd Dropoff point -- #11, Tyrone Hill
* Next player picked -- Alec Kessler
* Salvageable picks -- #13, Loy Vaught; #19, Dee Brown; #21, Jayson
Williams; #27, Elden Campbell.

Here's the startling thing: If you look at all the picks between #6 and
#15 between 1990 and 1997 -- 80 players in all -- you'll notice that the
draft turns into a veritable crapshoot between the first dropoff point
and the second dropoff point. Out of those 80 players, an amazing 29
were complete busts as pros (an average of 36%):

-6th -- Felton Spencer, Doug Smith, Sharone Wright 
-7th -- Lionel Simmons, Bobby Hurley
-8th -- Bo Kimble, Mark Macon, Todd Day, Shawn Respert, Adonal Foyle 
-9th -- Willie Burton, Eric Montross, Ed O'Bannon, Samaki Walker 
-10th -- Rumeal Robinson 
-11th -- Carlos Rogers, Todd Fuller
-12th -- Alec Kessler, Harold Miner, Khalid Reeves, Cherokee Parks.
-13th -- Terry Dehere
-14th -- Travis Mays, Yinka Dare, Rich King, Scott Haskin, 
-15th -- Dave Jamerson, Anthony Avent, Doug Edwards 

And you wonder why I only did a mock draft for the first 13 picks.


***** ***** ***** ***** ***** 

One last note: When I was going through Fox's draft pages, I couldn't
help but compile a list "The most memorable busts of the '90's." Here
they are (in no particular order):

* Luther Wright (1993, #18, Utah) -- The only first-rounder from the
'90's who was actually institutionalized.

* Bo Kimble (1990, #8, Miami) -- I'm still disappointed that he never
panned out as a pro. Maybe he should have kept shooting free throws
lefthanded in honor of Hank Gathers.

* Willie Burton (1990, #9, Miami) -- Scored 50 points in a game and was
hospitalized for depression shortly thereafter. Heat fans really ran the
gamut of emotions with Willie.

* LaBradford Smith (1991, #19, Washington) -- Dropped 35 on MJ one night
in a rare Bullets win one night. Unfortunately for LaBradford, the
Bullets were scheduled to play the Bulls the following night -- a
pissed-off MJ outscored him 47 to zero. True story. I wish they would
show that game on Classic Sports some time.

* Mark Macon (1991, #8, Denver) -- A shooting guard who couldn't shoot.
How does that happen?

* Harold Miner (1992, #12, Miami) -- Speaking of MJ, it's baby MJ! Would
anyone like to adopt him?

* Yinka Dare (1994, #14, New Jersey) -- Not only was he a colossal bust
from Day One, but it actually took the Nets five full years to get him
off their roster and return him back to the morgue.

* Todd Day (1992, #8, Milwaukee) -- The human ebola virus. Maybe the
most hateful Celtic of all-time.

* George Zidek (1995, #22, Charlotte) -- I remember giggling when the
Hornets took this guy. I mean, didn't they see him in college? Did they
really think the running lefty hook would translate on an NBA scale?

* Bill Curley (1994, #22, San Antonio) -- I get immense pride out of
this one... five years ago, my father and I argued for the entire '94
Draft Night over Curley. I vowed he would be a bigger stiff than the
"Weekend at Bernie's" guy; Dad thought he could be the next Dave Cowens.
In other words, I got a decade's worth of father-son bragging rights
from the Bill Curley Era.

I love this game!!!!!