Fortson, the PF spot, and optimism

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

Two confidence building games on the road just in the nick of time!

This is just the medicine the Cs needed, and although Monday's game was
probably a bit closer than it should have been given how well the starters
were outplaying the Wizards (Pitino apparently decided to handicap the game
with the bench again) some clutch shooting pulled it out for us. Pitino
also deserves credit for exhuming the fastbreak.

Despite this pleasing turn of events, there are still indications that our
good fortune may only be of passing duration. Neither the Nets nor the
Wizards are terribly impressive on the glass or down in the post. Those
facts were probably instrumental in allowing our running game to revive and
Twon to operate down low with relative impunity. This leads me to suspect
that our problems may return once we face a team or two that can rebound
and/or block shots. 

If so, it would be a shame because I'm convinced that Twon could routinely
abuse opposing SFs in a fashion akin to the last two games. However, all
indications are that Twon is Pitino's choice for PF and so his game will
probably continue to yo-yo depending upon the personnel of the opposing
team. I'm not the least convinced that Pitino is "grooming" Fortson for a
return to the starting line-up (although I'd love to be proven wrong) and I
think Joe is entirely justified in airing concerns about Fortson's address
come next fall. I found the following numbers interesting. They are the
stat lines of Griffin's "replacement" for each game beginning with the loss
to Chicago. In that game and the one in which Williams injured himself I
selected the "sub" with the best stats. Check it out:

Min	FG	FT	Rebs	asst	pf	st	to	pts
33*	7-11	0-2	2 3 5	2	4	2	0	15

29	4-8	1-1	2 1 3	1	3	1	0	9

39**	5-9	0-0	0 1 1	3	2	1	0	11

31	1-7	1-2	2 2 4	2	1	0	2	3

42	2-5	0-0	0 6 6	4	4	0	2	4

36 	1-5 	4-4 	1 3 4	4 	3 	2 	3 	7

*Best performance of subs for injured Griffin
**Best performance of subs for injured Williams

Ave min: 35 Ave pts: 8.2 Ave reb: 3.8 Numbers don't always tell the whole
story, but they do tell a good part of it - lots of minutes, not lots of
production. 

Now check out what has happened with the grand plan to shift Walker to SF
and eventually start Fortson:

Fortson's minutes over this time span: 16, 9, 14, 16, 7, and 7 
Ave min: 11.5 Ave pts: 6 Ave reb: 4.3 

Note that Fortson's averages are quite respectable in comparison to the
chosen subs despite the fact that he is averaging less than one-third the
minutes. 

Now I know people claim that the Fortson situation is solely dependent upon
his getting his wind up and fouls down, but that answer does not seem to
jive with the ominous trend in the numbers or with the fact that Pitino
plays Fortson almost exclusively at center and almost exclusively with the
PRESSING UNIT. If a player is having trouble with his wind, does it make
sense to make him press? Or would it make more sense to play him with the
more traditionally-paced unit (even if only for "limited" minutes?) Could
being relegated almost exclusively to the pressing unit be one reason
Fortson looks as if he's ready to puke when he's on the floor? Could it
also be a reason he doesn't know the "plays"? If Pitino were serious about
Fortson ever starting it seems logical that he would ease him gradually
into the STARTING line-up, NOT the pressing unit. Instead it seems that
Pitino is satisfied with Fortson as a member of the bomb squad. Whether
Fortson is also satisfied might be a different matter, but I suspect that
Danny is professional enough to wait until the off-season before anything
is said publicly.

Also, please note Battie's minutes over this same time span: 20, 16, 10,
19, 9, 14

Battie's minutes are a significant clue to Pitino's intentions because he
would be the logical choice to man the PF if Pitino were serious about
moving Walker to SF AND Fortson were not yet ready to pick up all the
minutes. Battie IS in shape. Battie DOES know the plays. However, as we all
know, Battie is still slotted almost exclusively as a back-up center (like
Fortson). Battie is a good size for PF and would have been an even better
match-up for the 7-0 Garnett imho - but NOOO, we get Waltah. Hence it seems
not that far-fetched to conclude that Pitino has decided (yet again) that
Twon is his PF, for better or for worse.

That sort of decision is certainly the prerogative of Pitino the coach, but
it doesn't mean that I have to like it. I don't want to shock any of you,
but I agree with Cecil and others that this team WILL get better over time.
I think the key difference between someone like myself and the so-called
"optimists" is that they apparently think that time is the ONLY thing that
will improve this team whereas I feel that certain measures could also be
taken to improve the performance of this team (and even Cecil hedged a bit
on the double-teaming). Do I think this team is inconsistent, in part due
to its youth? Yes - but unlike the "optimists" I don't think that such
inconsistency is the ONLY problem hampering our performance. 

Since I'm so critical, do I believe that Pitino is always wrong? Again,
this is pure foolishness. He's an intelligent and successful coach and I'm
a big fan of the team he has assembled. This is what makes it so
frustrating when he does do things that seem counterproductive. I don't
think this team is ready to contend but on the other hand I can point to at
least three games in which poor coaching was the primary factor in the loss
(Chicago, Atlanta, and Milwaukee and probably as few more if I cared to do
the analysis). Even if you think I'm exaggerating, you can probably think
of a game or two in which the "strategy" contributed to a loss - Houston,
for example, or Vancouver. Even that "corporate shill" ;>) Heinsohn has
said as much. So the difference between myself and the optimists might be a
difference of opinion that only concerns - at most - a swing of 5 games at
this point. But if we were 20-17 we would be in the thick of the playoff
hunt RIGHT NOW rather than potentially in the hunt a week or two from now.
It's these small differences that keep me from embracing a "what-me-worry?
optimism" because it is just such small differences (playoffs or not) that
might be the deciding factor in whether this team is blown up over the
summer and we are faced with starting all over again.

Hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. . . -Tom Murphy

PS I don't think anyone on this list is truly negative - for that we have
Peter May.