Indiana preview

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Tonight we face off with the defending Eastern Conference champs, Indiana,
who have the same record as the Celtics -- 8-10 and right in the hunt for
the last playoff spot. Over the summer, the Pacers lost Rik Smits to
retirement, Mark Jackson to free agency and traded Dale Davis for Jermaine
O'Neal, and replaced Larry Bird with Isiah Thomas. Even so I doubt many
people expected them to have a losing record at this point. Smits seemed
like a decrepit center who couldn't rebound and liked to play 16 feet from
the basket. Jackson seemed slow and defensively weak, and his dreaded
back-in move was taken away by new league rules. But the loss of these
experienced veterans, as well as the new coach, have disrupted the
efficient team execution that Indiana displayed the past few years. I
watched an Indiana game against the Lakers where Bender was shooting every
time he touched the ball and marveled at the contrast.

The Pacers are led in scoring by their two returning stars. Reggie Miller
(22.4 ppg, 50.3% 2-pt fg, 43.2% 3-pt fg, 93% ft) has picked up his
production and is one of the most efficient scorers in the game, combining
a knack for getting to the line with prolific and accurate 3-pt shooting.
Jalen Rose averages a balanced 20 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.1 apg but turns it over
3.8 times per game. Travis Best is averaging 15.5 ppg and 7.2 apg. Jermaine
O'Neal, who just turned 22, is averaging 13.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 2.17 bpg (10th
in the league) which makes me really, really wish that draft-day trade had
gone through. He's younger than Moiso but ready to play right now, and
could have grown with Walker and Pierce for the next 10 years. Austin
Croshere on the other hand hasn't been looking good, averaging 10.1 ppg and
7.3 rpg but shooting only 35% from the floor. 

I think the primary effect of the loss of Smits and Jackson was a big
reduction in Indiana's depth. Even though their starters are generally
producing well, guys like Zan Tabak, Bender (32% fg), and Jeff Foster are
now getting substantial minutes while Best is playing a career high 38 mpg,
up from 21 mpg last year.

The Pacers are holding opponents to an impressive 42.3% shooting (8th in
the league). They shoot 43.9% from the field, which is down about 2% from
last year. The vast majority of their offense seems to be coming from
perimeter oriented play, which makes them a dangerous team like Milwaukee.
When they're on, they can crush the best teams but when they're off, they
beat themselves.

I assume that we're going to see Stith defending Miller, who is a tough
assignment for anyone due to his talent for using screens, faking, and
flopping. That leaves Pierce on Rose, who has a solid midrange game. I'll
be interested to see how Battie fares against O'Neal inside. I think it'll
be a very tough game to win if we have to double a lot, either due to
Best's penetration or O'Neal on the inside.

On offense, I'd like to see Walker take it to Croshere, the guy he was
involved in trade rumors with, although I wonder if they'll put O'Neal on
him instead.

Alex