Reasons for optimism

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

Here are the team stats that I think are going to make the difference 
for the Celtics this year.

1. Steals vs. turnovers. This was definitely the strength of the Celtics
in Pitino's first year. They averaged 3.5 more steals than the opponents,
and if I remember correctly, they forced 8 more turnovers than their
opponents. Last year they had no advantage in this area because they
rarely used the press for lockout-related reasons. I would think that
we are going to see a return to frequent pressing which may be even more
effective due to better conditioning, more depth, and the new shot clock
rules.

2. Rebounding. The Celtics were about one rebound per game worse than 
their opponents last year. With a lot of pressing, the opponent's FG%
will typically go up (they get more turnovers but also more easy baskets)
and defensive rebounding will go down. Without Fortson the Celtics look
to be about an average rebounding team, though Atlanta mauled them on
the boards yesterday. If Fortson returns and regains the form that made
him the top rebounder per 48 minutes, I would think that the Celtics would
be one of the better rebounding teams in the league.

3. FT shooting. The player who went to the line the most was Walker, and
he shot 56%. This year he looks like an 80% FT shooter. This year he
should be more aggressive because he was tentative at times last year
due to not wanting to get fouled. Combine this with the new foul rules
and improved FT shooting could be a significant factor.

4. FT attempts per game. The opponents shot over 400 more free throws
than the Celtics last season. The Celtics should do better in this
category by replacing some of Mercer's perimeter offense with Eric
Williams' ability to get to the line. Antoine will hopefully be more
aggressive and Pierce may also get to the line due to his ability
to overpower shooting guards in the post. Fortson also has a great
knack for getting to the line. There are going to be nights when the
opponent will get to the line a ton though, because the Celtics don't
have a dominant shotblocker to deter drives by the opponents. Hopefully,
Battie develops some consistency in this area, though.

If the Celtics can force significantly more turnovers than the opponent
and outrebound them, while reducing their deficit in the FT department,
they will be a very good team. In the meantime while Fortson is out,
I hope the frontline of Vitaly, Battie, and Walker can step up. On paper
it would seem that they should be able to avoid being dominated on the
boards - Battie averaged 12.8 rebounds/48 minutes (34th in the league)
and Vitaly averaged 11.4 (50th), while Antoine was one of the top
rebounders two years ago.

Alex