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Mike DeCourcy On The Muted Success Of Early Declarers
Monday, May 17, 1999
NBA draft lesson: Stay in school
BY MIKE DeCOURCY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
When he left California's Fontana High in 1996, Corey Benjamin
was a McDonald's All-American and the No.4-rated basketball player in
his class.
When he left Oregon State after two seasons, he was the 28th
pick in the NBA Draft. This year, his first with the Chicago Bulls, he
was the No.12 scorer on the NBA's 27th-best team.
Benjamin considers this progress.
“I feel I made the best decision of my life. The competition is
better and I'm out here working every day.”
He may not feel the same if he isn't working in the NBA in a few
years — and the odds are greater he'll be gone than other players chosen
in promiximity to Benjamin, such as Sam Jacobson of the Los An geles
Lakers or Felipe Lopez of the Vancouver Grizzlies. Each played four
years in college.
Pro teams will not stop spending lottery-level draft picks on
wildly talented underclassmen such as Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury and
Antonio McDyess. They did not need four college seasons to succeed in
the NBA.
But teams filling the rest of their draft choices with four-
year college players, earn greater returns.
Jamaal Magliore, who played center for UK this past season,
likely will be chosen 20th or lower in the 1999 draft. These are some of
the trends he will need to overcome:
• More than 34 percent of underclassmen drafted after the top 10
were cut in their first training camps, compared to 21 percent of
drafted se niors.
• Of four first-round draft choices waived out of the league
since 1996, three left college with eligibility remaining.
• Eight underclassmen who made the NBA after being drafted
outside the top 10 in 1998 played a combined 1,837 minutes this season —
279 more than 14th pick Michael Dickerson played for the Houston
Rockets. Former Kentucky center Nazr Mohammed averaged less than five
minutes in 26 games.
• Only five of 35 underclassmen drafted after the top 10 in the
past four years have had even one double-figure scoring season. None
started as a rookie, and five became starters by this past season.
Twelve seniors chosen beyond the top 10 started as rookies, including
three second-round picks.
It appears an educated workforce is more productive — even if
the job is playing basketball.
“The elite guys are going to go into the top 10: Baron Davis,
Elton Brand, Steve Francis,” said Boston Celtics General Manager Chris
Wallace. “Usually, when underclassmen come out and they don't go that
high, there's a problem. There's a hole in their game or some character
issues, and it pushes them back. And it's something that possibly could
have been worked out if they stayed around college a little while
longer.”
The 1999 deadline for college underclassmen to declare for the
draft passed today at 12:01 a.m. Davis, Brand and Francis previously
announced they would head to the NBA and each will go among the top 10
picks.
For center Leon Smith of Chicago's Martin Luther King High,
power forward Deeandre Hulett of California's College of the Sequoias
and small forward Albert White of Missouri, the future is less certain.
There may be teams willing to develop their skills, as Portland
has done since choosing 6-foot-11 South Carolina prep star Jermaine
O'Neal with the 17th overall selection in 1996. He has scored 535 points
in three seasons.
Not all teams recognize or acknowledge the value of selecting
seniors deeper in the draft. The league's talent-worshipping culture is
resistant to change. But teams that value experience have benefited.
Houston used an all-rookie backcourt in Cuttino Mobley and
Dickerson this year and it got similar production two years ago from
rookie point guard Matt Maloney. Orlando employed both center Michael
Doleac and forward Matt Harpring in its primary rotation this season.
Cleveland rebuilt its team a year ago by adding four-year
college products Derek Anderson of Kentucky, Brevin Knight and Cedric
Henderson.
“They're very good, for starters, and they're all smart guys.
The game came a little easier to them,” said Cleveland General Manager
Wayne Embry. “Naturally, a player that's played four years in college,
has been coached for four years, is a more complete player.”
Teams choosing underclassmen deep in the draft are betting
comparatively small money in the hope of gaining a huge return, such as
slapping a few chips on a roulette number. The thing is, the roulette
wheel pays off sometimes. It's not working in the NBA.
Since 1995, four-year products such as Michael Finley (5,254
points, 17.1 career scoring average), Theo Ratliff (2,149, 7.6), Alan
Henderson (2,162, 10.0) and Bobby Jackson (1,143, 9.7) flourished after
being chosen lower than 15th. By comparison, the most productive
underclassmen chosen 15th or lower have been part-time players such as
Denver guard Cory Alexander (1,494 points, 6.3) and New Jersey guard
Chris Carr (1,288, 6.2).
“I think if you look at the adjustment of the guys who do stay,
it seems to argue that experience matters,” said Gold en State Warriors
coach P.J. Carlesimo. “You're betting on the "come' with the younger
guys. There's no question. But that's why they're attractive to people.”
Carlesimo was coaching the Portland Trail Blazers when they
selected O'Neal, who plays power forward and has backed up Xavier
product Brian Grant, Rasheed Wallace, Cliff Robinson and Stacey Augmon,
among others.
“The jury's still out on him, frankly,” Carlesimo said. “I still
think he can be a good player. The biggest problem for Jermaine has been
the people he's played behind. It's hard to find time for a kid like
that.”
Widely acknowledged as the top prep prospect in his senior year
(1994) Lopez might have been a first-round choice if he'd gone directly
from New York's Rice High to the NBA. He struggled through his first two
seasons at St.John's and was considered a bust until his career was
rescued by coach Fran Fraschilla.
The 24th pick in last June's draft, Lopez averaged 9.3 points as
a rookie with the Vancouver Grizzlies and scored nearly as many points
in his first year as O'Neal has in three.
“Some experiences he had in college were negative, but he
benefited having gone through that stuff,” said Larry Riley, Vancouver's
director of player personnel. “Felipe went through an absolutely
horrible season for us in terms of wins and losses. The guy was able to
look at everything and keep it in perspective and keep working.”
Like New Mexico guard Lamont Long and Georgia Tech guard Dion
Glover, Magliore plans not to sign with an agent and will protect his
college eligibility. He will attend the league's pre-draft camp in
Chicago and attempt to make an impression on scouts and general
managers. He may pull his name from the draft list if he feels he will
not be selected high enough.
Although being a first-round pick would guarantee a three-year
contract worth more than $1 million, it would not guarantee success.
“The further back you go in the first round, the less likely
you're going to play,” said the Celtics' Wallace. “With the top 10 or 12
teams, there's a lot of pressure to get homecourt advantage in the
playoffs. Those coaches ... will forsake upside and talent for
reliability.
“If you don't play the first few years, it's impossible to amass
the numbers you're going to need to impress the rest of the league and
get that second contract. It's not using all your options to the full
disposal. If those guys stayed in school longer, they could make quantum
leaps. And if they don't, in all probability they wouldn't be picked
lower. They're playing with the house's money.”
Copyright 1998 The Cincinnati Enquirer, a Gannett Co. Inc. newspaper.
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