1>5

["Trond E. Jacobsen" <tjacobse@wpl-law.com>]

First comments to list.  Enjoy relatively civil tone in last week.

I agree that one substantial weakness we face is post defense/big man,
but not as big a problem as it some allege.  We must not trade the
future for some slightly above average 34 mpg big man who gets 12+ ppg,
11+ rpg, and 4 bpg-  Those are the numbers we need out of the position,
and I don't really care how we get it.  My feeling: we had our shot at
Tim and Keith, it didn't happen, get over it.

Our current platoon (ignoring the useless DS) has produced this season
just under 14ppg, 12+ rpg, 3.1 bpg, and shoot .530% (as an average).
These are very serviceable numbers.

We have only two serious problems at 5, IMHO:

1.  One of our 5's should be bigger, heavier and stronger.  Cant use all
the time in a Pitino system featuring running, but when we are forced
into half court or against a super aggressive and strong big man (i.e.
Mourning), we need to have a huge sack to beat down their legs, their
arms their stamina, and force their big guy to shoot jumper instead of
just blowing by/through battie and gang, and to deter penetration by
guards.  A wide body.  A fat boy with long arms, that's what we need in
one (and only one) of our 5-playing fools.

2.  We need a big man that can shoot FT's!!!!!!  The average of our
current platoon is .623%.  DQ goes 1-4 and it hurts.  If our
hypothetical sack shot 75%+ we can use him at end of games like
yesterday's with confidence and not be afraid to pass into the post with
less than a minute left, plus we might get points if our big man gets
hacked after an offensive rebound.

IMHO, our biggest problem is at PG, as many people have been saying.  If
we can work Barros  for Wesley, that is a good, but not incredible deal.

Look at career numbers:

Barros: 11.3ppg, 3.6 apg, 1spg, .463 FG%, .413% 3PT%, 86% FT, 11mpg
Wesley: 11.2ppg, 5.3 apg, 1.5 spg, .447 FG%, .376 3PT%, 77% FT, 29mpg

In other words, Barros is a much bigger offensive threat.  His numbers
are much better than they should be in comparison to Wesley given 1/3
the PT.  This year Barros gets more than half the O of Wesley with 1/2
the PT.

But... Wesley can play defense at point, better than Barros, and way
better than KA (any defense is more than 0).  Wesley also has over 2
inches and 40 lbs. on Barros, which counts if you want a suffocating
press and strong D out of your PG.

Also, look at career trends.  Barros is past the fat part of career.  He
is playing way, way below career averages (I know he is getting less PT
than during career year at Philly) this year and last, whereas, Wesley
is playing at or near career average and is three years younger.  That
three years makes a difference.  He is in the fat 7-10 year zone of his
career, and Barros is at the thin 10-13 year zone.  Wesley is not going
to deteriorate markedly over the next few years; Barros wont get more
than 5 mpg within 2 years.

Summing up: Wesley is plenty good enough to be a starting PG on an
average team in this league.  His O is serviceable and his D is pretty
good for a PG.  He is also not a midget.  When KA starts rolling on all
cyclinders, and Mercer shoots to potential, we dont need any serious O
contribution out of backup PG, but could use substantial upgrade on D
from same.

In my ideal universe, we would get something resembling D out of
starting PG, but we need a veteran, skilled passing PG with good court
vision to run uptempo game and KA is as good as its going to get for
now, despite the HUGE defensive liability he represents at point.  There
is only one Payton, afterall.

Oh, one more thought before I go back to work.  Walker should be our
team captain if it goes to one of the big three.  But I would ask Pitino
to put a condition on it: Your home is eastern Mass, and you keep it
only as long as you are the best conditioned player on team.


One question: how long do we give "pure shooting" Mercer before we start
looking for a shooter made of something more durable than balsa wood?

I'm out,

Viking