Re: Projections of the starting lineup.

[j.hironaka@unesco.org]

Dan Forant Sr wrote:

> The figures look good to me. I would be ecstatic for those numbers and the
> Celts would not be asking too much for such output. We have a very good
> team. It all depends on how good KA will distribute the ball. He's the key.
> I don't care for him, but we're stuck with him, it may turn out well.
>
> At 04:21 AM 8/23/99 +1000, you wrote:
> >Hey all,
> >
> >Projections in my opinion
> >
> >Potapenko - 12ppg, 8rpg, 1.5apg, 1.25-1.50bpg, 0.5spg (field - .510 ..
> >free throws .600) - 28 minutes
> >Fortson - 12ppg, 11rpg, 0.75apg, 0.5bpg, 0.5spg (field - .500 .. free
> >throws .750) - 28 minutes
> >Walker - 23ppg, 9rpg, 4.0apg, 0.7bpg, 1.2spg (field - .455 .. free
> >throws .700) - 35 minutes
> >Pierce - 19ppg, 5.5rpg, 4.0apg, 1.2bpg, 1.7spg (field - .450 .. free
> >throws .750) - 35 minutes
> >Anderson - 13.5ppg, 2.0rpg, 7.5apg, 0.2bpg, 1.3spg (field . 440 .. free
> >throws .850) - 30 minutes
> >
> >Backup Minutes
> >
> >Battie - 28 minutes
> >McCarty - 10 minutes
> >Williams - 14 minutes
> >Cheaney - 14 minutes
> >Barros - 18 minutes
> >
> >Cheers,
> >
> >Warwick
> >
> >

Warwick's optimistic projections would certainly make his 54-win prediction
come true. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Potapenko averaged 8 rebounds or
Fortson averaged 12 ppg on 50% shooting. On the other hand, I expect Pierce
will average better than .450 FG% and also contribute more steals than Warwick
projects (1.7).

Personally, I think Pierce will significantly ramp up his shot attempts to
Mercer's previous level (17.6) and thus in theory be a top 15 NBA scorer even
if his shooting doesn't improve one iota. Because of his mature shot selection,
I see no reason not to project Pierce as a .470 FG% guy despite the number of
three-pointers he'll attempt. As noted before, I've seen Pierce guarded
fulltime by everyone from Calbert Cheaney to Mark Jackson, and our rookie
didn't hesitate to attack with the dribble against "quicker" players. If
anything, he played better on offense against guards than forwards. I've yet to
see Pierce get stripped of the ball on the dribble and, compared to Mercer, he
will actually take on guards one-on-one whenever isolated (or at least use his
fantastic spin move off a post up).

Unlike Antoine Walker, Pierce keeps his head when closing on the rim and knows
when to go for the flush and when to try to scoop it, depending on how hectic
it gets on his trajectory to the basket. Unlike Mercer and Walker and Wallah,
Pierce always locks his eyes onto the target leading into the shot release. One
of the reasons he's not flashy  is because he's too well-coached to ever
attempt blind shots. The Kentucky boys are all pure "guess hitters" when it
comes to driving to the basket. If the help defense reacts differently or
converges in greater numbers than expected, they usually don't have a "Plan B".

Mercer needs a pull up jumper MUCH more than he needs 3-point range. Walker
needs to add a pump fake and also to slow things down at the tail end of his
spin moves just enough so that he can read & react to what the defense has
given him. You'd think by now that he'd be sick of eating basketball sandwiches
every night. The defense knows he's not getting any help from the refs.

Regarding El Capitano, Pitino ought to remind him that it was the double and
triple doubles that got Antoine selected to the All Star game, not the 40%
shooting and 23ppg that season. Based on the forward competition out there, I
believe Antoine Walker will never again be an All Star until he returns to
being one of actually less than a half-dozen present NBA players physically
capable of a triple double. The fact that he no longer is a double-figure
rebounder explains why he fell from being an All Star to being at best one of
the top 60 players in the NBA (nowhere close to All Star level going into next
season).

Moreover, if he actually thinks he can contribute defensively for 35 minutes
while carrying extra body flab, then we are in trouble. I think he's lost about
5 inches on his vertical since his sophomore year in college, when he could
jump like a head-above-the-rim EA Sports video game simulation. Remember,
though, that it was Pitino who told Antoine last off-season to develop a Karl
Malone-size body. At some point in the lockout, he obviously stopped hitting
the weight room and stationary bike after each steak and eggs breakfast.

Now that Antoine has added a serviceable post up game and finally cut down his
turnovers, he's not that far from connecting all the dots as a complete NBA
small forward on a team that could actually win consistently. He needs to block
out the fans and realize how singularly important he is to the team. Our other
franchise player, Paul Pierce, will never develop into a double-double player,
much less an occasional triple-double talent. I see no need for jealousy and
more importantly, I see absolutely no trace of jealousy so far between our two
stars (even though many people assume it would be there). The fact that Walker
would be shocked if he's not with the Celtics even after next season is
fantastic news in my opinion. We are going to see some exciting fourth quarters
next year. We are going to battle back on the boards and win our share.

Joe

NB       If Eric Williams averages only 14mpg as a 6 million/year player (and
that's with Warwick assuming Adrian Griffin gets zero and McCarty gets only
10mpg), then I believe we should definitely trade him now for a pair of
serviceable (and tradable) 3 million dollar veteran contracts. Pitino needs to
continue using his well-honed "I have no choice because of our budget ceiling"
excuse to con other GM's into taking a gamble on William's remaining 5 years.

        Also, I hate the fact that we don't have a true backup center if
Potapenko gets in foul trouble against a Ewing or Shaq. I imagine we may end up
resigning Eric Riley if Pervis is not ready by October.

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