`Re: The Peril Of Too Many Large Contracts or More Trades On The Way

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

Alex Wang wrote:
> 
> I would actually disagree with this assessment of the Celtics salary
> situation for a couple of reasons.
> 
> 1) The $7M figure for both Battie and Fortson is more than Pitino offered
> Mercer, and only slightly less than Antoine's $9M. Battie in particular
> has done nothing to deserve that sort of contract, other than resembling
> Marcus Camby. Note that Camby was a much more productive player over his
> first two years than Battie (despite being a relative bust) and received
> a $40M contract, which under the new CBA can start at around $5M.

Battie and Fortson are big men - they're always paid at a higher rate
than
backcourt types, and with orlando and Chicago lurking about with
millions
in cap space, and the inability to sign premium type free agents - since
most of them have been or will be re-signed by their own teams; there's 
definitely the possibility of them going after Fortson and Battie and
raising
their signing price. Also, the market has changed since the Camby
signing,
thanks to Toronto's ridiculous contract to Michael Stewart, and as
noted, the
presence of Orlando and Chicago having money to burn and nothing to burn
it
on. 

 
> Also note that these extensions wouldn't kick in until after this season.
> In the meantime, the contracts of Ellison and Washington, as well as
> Radja's buyout, expire, reducing the payroll by $5M. So for the 2000-2001
> season, Battie and Fortson will probably increase the net payroll by a
> significant amount, maybe $5M or so. But the next year, Barros and Minor
> come off the cap, which is another $6M.


I said next season in my post = 2000 - 2001, and Barros and Minor are
still on
board for that season.
 
> 2) The Celtics were evidently quite profitable under Pitino's first season,
> something like $12M if I remember reports correctly. The new TV contract
> increases owners' revenues as much as it increases the cap (since the cap
> is set at 48% of revenues), so I would guess that the Celtics are actually
> capable of running at $10M over the cap or more and still remain quite
> profitable. In addition, you would think that the team's revenues would
> increase as the team improves. And I would guess that the new TV contract
> on cable is more lucrative than the old ones.

The C's may have been profitable, but they lost something like $8
million last year.
Right now, they're going to be around $7 million over the cap - If the
current
core is kept intact along with players like Barros, Minor, Cheney,
McCarty, etc.,
in 2000 - 2001, I project them to be close to $15 million over the cap.

 
> 3) Pitino has managed to add cash to the Celtics coffers through the
> Anderson trade and the Fortson trade (since Denver is paying $3M of
> Williams' salary). This money should have some effect in reducing the
> budget.


My projections are based on the 2000 - 2001 season, when Battie's and
Fortson's 
extensions kick in. 

> 4) The $6M number for Eric Williams is also high I believe, though recent
> media reports seem unclear. A few years back when he signed the contract,
> I remember it being a six year extension for less than $30M, which would
> mean there are five years left on it. On ESPN, they say that he is
> entering the third year of a four year, $30M contract which doesn't
> make sense since his rookie contract accounted for three of the four
> years he has been in the league.

I believe Eric will zoom up to $7 million per season as his contract is
end-loaded, with the first few years being in the $3 million range 
and then plowing upwards at a rapid rate.

 
> So I think the current core is sustainable. But I do think there will
> be at least one more major trade in the next few years before Pitino
> feels like he has his championship team. I don't think it will be right
> away though, because right now he has a nice core of young players that
> he can develop to add value. I'm hoping that after he's developed them
> for a couple of years, he can give quantity for disgruntled All-Star
> quality to make a run at the championship (similar to what Pheonix did
> in acquiring Hardaway).


Naturally I disagree. The figures don't lie for 2000 - 2001:

Walker = Close to 10M - I forgot to include his 12% raise in the
original estimate.

Anderson = $7 - $7.5M

Battie and Fortson - If not $7M, then at least the $6M Stewart got. 

Potapenko = $5M

Williams = $6M

Barros = $3.5M

McCarty = $2.8M

Minor = $2.8M

Cheaney = $2.2M

First Round Pick = $1 M

Others = $2M

Pitino = $7M

If you include Pitino in the mix, the salaries have the potential to
be over $60 million for 2000 - 2001.  I say two of the core players 
will have to go for something cheaper.  One of them has to be Kenny
Anderson....
Ray

 
> Alex
> 
> > If the Celtics keep their current roster of core players intact
> > through the 2001 season, they face a severe salary cap crisis,
> > due to having too many large contracts. If you were to add up the
> > salaries of the C's best players for next season (approximating Battie
> > and Fortson's extensions), it would go something
> > like this:
> >
> > Walker    = 9 M
> > Anderson  = 7 M
> > Battie    = 7 M
> > Fortson   = 7 M
> > Williams  = 6 M
> > Potapenko = 5 M
> >
> > That's $41 million for just half the roster.  Now, perhaps $7 million
> > apiece
> > for Battie and Fortson may be a little high, but they're both
> > going to be in that general vicinity. And while, $41 million for half a
> > roster may be acceptable for multi-billionaires like MSG or Paul Allen,
> > the C's are stuck with Paul "I'm running the team as a business" Gaston,
> > who's would hit the roof, if his total payroll is over $50 million...
> >
> > Which it very well could be if you factor in Barros' $3.5; McCarty's
> > $2.6; Minor's $2.8... any ways you get the drift.  And while the salary
> > cap will go up next season from $34 to around $37 million, St. Pauly's
> > boy will be hemmorahging if the Celtics are $14 or so million above the
> > cap.
> >
> > So, the solution to this cap dilemma is: There are going to have to be
> > more
> > deals. Pitino has to move out one or two of the core group, bringing
> > back in return, a quality player(s); and other players with short term
> > contracts.  That way you keep the talent level of the team at a high
> > level
> > and keep the cheap bastard owner happy too.
> >
> > Enjoy this current group of Celtics, but don't get too attached, because
> > changes
> > are coming....
> > Ray
> >