Celtics rotation

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

Let me assume for the moment that the Celtics are done tweaking their roster
until at least the trading deadline, which is what I believe. Here is what
I see:

Starting lineup: Potapenko, Fortson, Walker, Pierce, Anderson.
Rotation players: Battie, McCarty, Williams, Cheaney, Barros.
End of bench/IR: Turner, Griffin, Washington, Minor, Ellison.

1) The Celtics have stockpiled talent: every player on the first or second
unit was drafted in the first round; most were lottery picks. The Celtics 
will develop this talent and eventually attempt to trade their depth for 
All-Star quality, as Portland managed to do with the acquisition of Steve 
Smith.

2) As people have noted, depth at center is limited. A few years ago, when
the Bulls were dominating with 6'6" Rodman often playing center, the need
to have a lot of traditional centers didn't seem to concern many people. 
The Twin Towers have changed that I suppose; but honestly, I don't see it
being a serious problem until the Celtics meet San Antonio in the finals. 
New York did pretty well with only Dudley as a center after Ewing went down.

3) Pat Riley said that he felt the future lineup of the NBA is five 6'9"
guys who do it all. The Celtics lineup, with so many two position players,
seems to be a step in that direction. The rotation is probably going to
work like this: Anderson and Barros split 48 minutes. The remaining 192
minutes are going to be split between the rest; the exact positions are
flexible. Out of these players:
  Walker and Pierce are going to play 35+ minutes each. In fact, these 
    numbers may drop if the season is going well.  
  Forston, Potapenko, and Battie will play around 25-30 minutes each, unless
    they are limited by foul trouble. 
  McCarty, Williams, and Cheaney will divide the remaining minutes, probably
    around 10-20 minutes each.

4) With respect to positions: We're going to see Walker and McCarty (on a 
pressing unit) both play some minutes at power forward. Cheaney will 
probably play both shooting guard exclusively; when he and Pierce are 
playing together, Pierce will move to small forward because of his superior 
strength, rebounding, and ability to drive. Having multi-position players
will help the trapping defense; we should see fewer horrible matchups 
after rotations, with the exception of Anderson and Barros. The Celtics
trapping system (next bigger player rotates) is meant to prevent our 
point guards from being exploited easily.

5) There is a nice scoring balance between the first and second unit now.
Pierce and Walker are each going to be counted on for around 20 ppg for
the first unit while Potapenko will hopefully draw some double teams when
he posts up. On the second unit, there are no offensive liabilities like
we frequently had last year (Riley, Bowen). A single offensive liability
allows the opposing team to cheat and double team (Greg Ostertag, Chris
Dudley). This team will not suffer that fate.

6) The five guys at the end of the bench/IR as well as Barros all have
contracts ending in 2000 or 2001. Look for them to be replaced by three
first round draft picks and two more $2M exception players over the next
two offseasons, unless the Celtics make a many for one trade to open up 
roster spots. I feel that a trade of this sort is probably quite likely
during the next offseason. Some All-Star will become disgruntled and the 
Celtics will offer two well-performing rotation players and two future
first round draft picks to acquire him.

7) Predictions: The Celtics beat Larry Bird's Pacers for the first team
this season. They finish fourth in the East behind Miami, Indiana, and
New York and win at least one playoff series.

Alex