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Fantasy Basketball: Try 2 - How The Rookies Will Do
Predicting rookie values isn't easy
By 'Hoops' Klyce
Special to CBS SportsLine Fantasy Basketball
October 26, 1998
Forecasting the Fantasy
value of NBA players is [Fantasy Hoops]
largely based on performance over previous NBA seasons.
That makes predicting the Fantasy value of rookies
purely speculative. Typically five or six rookies are
productive enough to be regular starters on a Fantasy
team thorughout the season. Last year was a lean year
as only three players, Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn and
Brevin Knight were worthy Fan tasy starters for the
entire season.
Ron Mercer, Chauncy Billups, Tim Thomas, Derek Anderson
and Bobby Jackson were other players who were able to
crack Fantasy starting lineups for parts of the season,
but were generally borderline players. Others like
Cedric Henderson and Anthony Johnson each received
substantial playing time but were not very productive
from a Fantasy perspective.
Predicting which rookies will
excel is challenging. NBA
Scouting Director Marty Blake
said the following of Antonio
Daniels (picked #4 overall)
after the 1997 draft:
"He is a guy I was pushing when no one knew of him.
He's a very good point guard who can score, plus he's a
great kid. They will love him in Vancouver."
Daniels went on to have a very unproductive Fantasy
season, showing that even the experts can miss in their
analysis of rookies.
The following general rules should be used when judging
the Fantasy potential of rookies:
*Rookies who play the power position have more
difficulty adjusting to the NBA because it takes more
strength than they have developed at their age. That is
why Marcus Camby and Tony Battie struggled their first
year while the small but quick Brevin Knight succeeded.
*Players with four years of college experience can
adapt more easily to the NBA game. Tim Duncan benefited
from four years in school while a player like Tim
Thomas would have made a much bigger impact had he
stayed at Villanova a couple of more years.
*Players from smaller colleges may not have seen the
level of competition necessary to prepare them for the
transition to the NBA. Antonio Daniels is an example.
This should make you suspicious of Michael Olowokandi
from this years draft.
*Beware of rookies described as having a huge
'upside'. That is another way of saying that they may
not be able to contribute to your Fantasy team for
their entire rookie year. Examples from this year's
draft could be Antawn Jamison and Larry Hughes.
*Usually the most productive players are taken in the
top 10 picks, although there are always exceptions.
That said, we will attempt to evaluate the Fantasy
potential of the first 13 picks of the 1998 draft.
1. Michael Olowokandi, L.A. Clippers
Olowokandi tore up the Big West Conference and
went from a no name center to the No. 1 overall
draft pick in a short time, but he did not perform
against top notch competition in college. This
lack of experience makes us reluctant to get
overly excited about his ability to adapt to
playing the NBA center position. Although he
averaged 22 ppg, 11.2 rpg and 2.9 bpg at Pacific
University, it only earned him an honorable
mention on the All-American team. Chances are that
Isaac Austin will sign with another team giving
Olowokandi all the playing time he needs to
develop and become a viable Fantasy player. Still,
he won't be like Duncan, and may be taken higher
than he should in a Fantasy draft by owners
blinded by his NBA draft position.
2. Mike Bibby, Vancouver
The strength of Bibby's game is that he does not
make a lot of mistakes and that should enable him
to maintain the starting point guard job in
Vancouver, unlike his predecessor Daniels. Being
on the court is the main prerequisite to becoming
a good Fantasy player. His assists totals should
also benefit from the continued development of
Shareef Adbur-Rahim and Bryant Reeves. In college,
Bibby contributed in multiple stat categories
including 2.4 steals and 2.0 treys per game. Bibby
will be the top Fantasy player among rookies
powered by his ability to contribute in the
assists, steals and three-point fg categories.
3. Raef LaFrentz, Denver
LaFrentz should be a solid rookie Fantasy
performer having spent four years in a big time
college program. In Denver, where the talent level
was as thin as the air last season, LaFrentz
should be able to step in and play all the minutes
he can handle. In college he averaged 20 ppg while
shooting a high field goal percentage and averaged
10 rpg. He should make contributions at the
professional level in these categories as well.
LaFrentz is a player who certainly won't hurt your
Fantasy team.
4. Antawn Jamison, Golden State
Despite the high draft pick used to select
Jamison, there are some serious questions about
which NBA position he will play. Jamison may have
Clarence Weatherspoon syndrome -- lacking the size
to play power forward while not having the
offensive skills to play small forward. Further
obstacles to Jamison's Fantasy value development
include stiff competition from Jason Caffey,
Donyell Marshall and Clarence Weatherspoon at the
forward position. On the flip side, there are some
who feel that Jamison has the quickness to get his
own shot in the pros. His 20+ college scoring
average showed he could score against top notch
collegiate competition. Jamison's Fantasy
potential would go up if the Warriors shed Caffey
and Spoon through free agency, but I would still
be reluctant to draft Jamison to my Fantasy team
because of his positional questions.
5. Vince Carter, Toronto
Carter will be expected to help Toronto with their
scoring (which is always a plus for a fantasy
player's value), and if Doug Christie's trade wish
is granted, there will be even more pressure for
him to score. Carter has been compared to Jerry
Stackhouse but that is unfair since Vince can
shoot -- as a junior he lead the ACC in FG% at 59%
which is very impressive considering he played
shooting guard and took of numbers of three point
shots. Carter can score inside and he has shown
improvement with his free throw shooting which is
important for his fantasy value since his style of
play should bring him to the line often.
6. Robert Traylor, Milwaukee
For a big man Traylor has remarkably good passing
skills ... but then again so does Oliver Miller.
The fear with Tractor is that he hit the Jenny
Craig diet just for the draft (he lost 30 lbs from
his playing weight at Michigan) and will put
weight back on right away as the lockout has
allowed him many additional visits to McDonald's.
Although he does not have power forward height, he
does have power forward size and should be able to
rebound at the pro level (he averaged 10 rpg in
college). Going against him is that in Milwaukee,
Tyrone Hill is the starting PF, so Traylor may not
be a valuable Fantasy player right away.
7. Jason Williams, Sacramento
The last guard to be taken as a top draft pick by
the Kings was Bobby Hurley in 1993. The team is
hoping for better luck this time. Sacramento
traded shooting guard Mitch Richmond for PF Chris
Webber and now need backcourt help more than ever.
Williams will be given the opportunity to fill
that need. He is a wildcard though as he has a
history of off court drug and discipline problems
in his two years of college experience. In his
last year he averaged 17 ppg, 6.7 apg and 2.7
steals per game. He has the potential to be a
legitimate Fantasy player since he will be able to
contribute in the assist, steal, 3-pt fg and ft
percentage categories, and he should not have any
serious threats to his starting job. Given his
relatively low profile, he could be a draft day
steal for your Fantasy team.
8. Larry Hughes, Philadelphia
Hughes was drafted by the Sixers over Paul Pierce
because of his ball handling ability as well as
his scoring potential. As a freshman in college he
averaged over 20 ppg but his shooting of 41.5% FG,
29% 3PT and 69% FT were not that impressive.
Philly would like to give Hughes minutes at point
guard to free up Alan Iverson to play off the
ball. This could help his Fantasy value if he is
able to pick up assists in addition to his
anticipated scoring. Although he has great
potential, with only one year of college
experience, it may be a year or two before he
becomes a regular Fantasy starter.
9. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
Past history dictates that we should not get too
excited about this European player since those in
the past few years have been more or less bench
warmers. Nowitzki is a young player who is coming
to the NBA a year or two earlier than he
anticipated and may not have the strength yet to
earn regular playing time. He does reportedly have
three-point range but he averaged only 6 rpg in
Europe despite being 6-10. Don't expect him to get
more in the NBA. Similar to other European
players, his defense is weak, which does not bode
well for him in the stl and blk categories.
10. Paul Pierce, Boston
Paul Pierce's fall to the No. 10 spot in the NBA
draft was one of the most peculiar aspects of the
1998 draft. He had been projected to go in the top
five on the strength of his offensive skills (20.5
ppg and 51.3% FG). Pierce should start for the
Celtics in place of Walter McCarty at strong
forward and be a more valuable Fantasy player than
your typical No. 10 draft pick. Be somewhat
concerned that nine teams passed on Pierce for
reasons that aren't apparent to the rest of the
basketball world. If Pierce is out of shape, he
could find himself in Pitino's dog house. Last
year the Celtic player rotations where brutal for
Fantasy owners as only Antoine Walker played
regular minutes. Also, Pierce's 34.5% three point
shooting in college suggests he may not be ready
to hit the pro three yet. This would hurt his
Fantasy value since he won't be a great rebounder
in the pros either.
11. Bonzi Wells, Detroit
Generally players drafted beyond pick number 10
don't become good Fantasy players in their rookie
year but Wells has an attribute that makes him
special -- he led the NCAA in steals. Last season
another mid first-round pick, Knight, led the NBA
in steals for a considerable part of the season,
making him a productive Fantasy player. There may
be plenty of opportunities for Bonzi to play in
Detroit; Stackhouse may not re-sign, the aging Joe
Dumars should continue to miss games due to
injuries and Lindsay Hunter is a notorious brick
layer (career 38.4% field goal shooting). Wells
has good size (6-5) and showed he could score in
college.
12. Michael Doleac, Orlando
Last year Doleac received considerable exposure as
a result of his team's trek to the NCAA tournament
finals. He averaged 19.5 pg and 7.5 rpg. His
associated name recognition may cause some Fantasy
owners to value him more than he is worth. Doleac
will struggle to be a productive Fantasy player
since he is slow and cannot block shots. Even when
drafted, analysts projected him as a career backup
center. How often have you heard a player's
potential on draft night is only to be a backup?
To his credit, he can hit an open jump shot but
you need to do more than that to be a valuable
Fantasy player. Also, Austin may very well end up
in Orlando and claim the majority of minutes at
center.
13. Keon Clark, Orlando
Keon is said to be athletic. Always be suspicious
of basketball ball players described as
'athletic'. David Benoit has always been descried
as 'athletic'! See the point? To his credit
though, Clark can block shots but competition from
fellow rookie Doleac should prevent him from
getting regular playing time.
Players who should see the majority of court time among
the players mentioned include:
1. Bibby
2. LaFrentz
3. Olowokandi
4. Williams
5. Carter
6. Wells (sleeper prediction)
7. Pierce
David 'Hoops' Klyce is a well-known Fantasy Hoops
expert. For more of his Fantasy Basketball analysis, be
sure to visit his web site at www.hoopsklyce.com.
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