Mike Monroe: NBA Witching Hour - 1 PM Monday

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

                 NBA's witching hour: 1 p.m. Monday

                 By Mike Monroe
                 Denver Post Sports Writer

                 Oct. 18 - One o'clock Monday is zero hour for NBA fans.

                 Forget what you've heard and read about progress in the
                 labor dispute that already has forced cancellation of the
                 first two weeks of the NBA season. Pay no attention to
                 the various superstar taxes, luxury taxes and salarycap
                 rebates.

                 Nothing matters until 1 o'clock (MDT) Monday, when John
                 Feerick rules on guaranteed player contracts.

                 Feerick is the Fordham University Law School dean who is
                 arbitrator of one narrowly defined aspect of the dispute:
                 Whether NBA players with guaranteed contracts, about 200
                 of them, must be paid some $800 million this season,
                 lockout or no lockout.

                 The union says guaranteed contracts supersede all
                 collective-bargaining agreements, and must be paid,
                 regardless of whether games are played. The league
                 contends the lockout is like any other legal labor
                 action: The unionized employees don't get paid while they
                 aren't working. Period.

                 (This particular dispute, by the way, begs an intriguing
                 question: If Feerick rules the Knicks have to pay Patrick
                 Ewing the $18.5 million his contract calls for this
                 season, does Ewing have to perform other, non-basketball
                 duties the Knicks specify? Does he have work in the mail
                 room as a clerk, say?)

                 Feerick will announce his ruling at 1 p.m. (MDT) Monday,
                 though either side can appeal in U.S. District Court, and
                 the league certainly will if the dean rules for the
                 players.

                 Appeals notwithstanding, the issue is post-ruling
                 leverage. Feerick has firm grip on a very long rod
                 attached to the fulcrum of the 1998-99 season.

                 If the league wins, it has another $800 million worth of
                 leverage with which to squeeze the union into submission.

                 If the union wins, the owners are backed into an $800
                 million corner. Union officials believe the owners will
                 be required to put guaranteed money in escrow pending the
                 outcome of any appeal, and we all know how millionaires
                 and billionaires feel about letting loose of even a few
                 dollars, for any reason.

                 Either way, the ruling is going to shake loose some real
                 action in a situation that, up to now, has been all about
                 rhetoric.

                 As one agent who represents several high-profile NBA
                 players put it: "If the league wins, we're going to find
                 out how long the players can hold their breath.''

                 Then there's the unidentified league executive who told
                 The Washington Post that if the league loses it
                 definitely would shift the leverage in the union's favor.

                 The rhetoric, just as some of us predicted, got decidedly
                 more shrill after Tuesday's face-to-face negotiating
                 session in which the union proposed a tax on the highest
                 salaries as a means to keep costs in check. The harshest
                 talk of all came from Knicks president Dave Checketts,
                 who said what basketball learned from baseball's horrid
                 labor experience is that baseball's owners didn't keep
                 the players out of work long enough. Now that the NBA has
                 angered its fans by canceling real games, Checketts said,
                 it has to make sure it doesn't compromise on an agreement
                 that fails to keep costs under control.

                 Anyone who thought Checketts wasn't speaking on behalf of
                 the entire league need only note he wasn't slapped with
                 the $5 million fine commissioner David Stern promised any
                 team executive who dared speak his mind. Feel free to
                 characterize Checketts as Stern's personal pit bull,
                 growling at the feet of union leader Billy Hunter.

                 So all of us wait to hear what the dean has to say.
                 Nobody is guessing. Remember, this is the jurist who
                 ruled in favor of Latrell Sprewell.

                 If you want to see NBA basketball before next fall,
                 though, hope for a ruling for the league. Some union
                 members already are starting to get blue in the face from
                 all that breath-holding. One marginal player who has been
                 in the league for several seasons, mostly at the minimum
                 salary, recently told close friends he wasn't sure how
                 long he felt like going without a paycheck so Ewing and
                 friends could make their megamillions.

                 In the end, that's the greatest leverage of all.